infonet-economy

In modelling and forecasting volatility, two main trade-offs emerge: mathematical tractability versus economic interpretation and accuracy versus speed. The authors attempt to reconcile, at least partially, both trade-offs. The former trade-off is crucial for many financial applications, including portfolio and risk management. The speed/accuracy trade-off is becoming more and more...

The standard economy-wide indices of labor quality (or human capital) largely ignore the role of unobservable worker characteristics. In this paper, we develop a methodology for identifying the contributions of both observable and unobservable worker characteristics in the presence of the incidental parameter problem. Based on data for Switzerland over the period 1991-2006, we find...

This paper develops a new methodology to estimate the effect of low-wage import competition on U.S. producer prices. We first document that when low-wage countries grow, their exports to the United States increase most in labor-intensive sectors. Second, we demonstrate that the temporary and relative component of imports induced by labor intensity and output growth in low-wage...

We study the responses of residential property and equity prices, inflation and economic activity to monetary policy shocks in 17 countries, using data spanning 1986-2006, using single-country VARs and panel VARs in which we distinguish between groups of countries depending on their financial systems. The effect of monetary policy on property prices is only about three times as large...

This paper analyzes the behavior of the Swiss franc (CHF) over the past 35 years. It relates the evolution of the CHF exchange rates to economic fundamentals like the relative competitiveness of the Swiss export sector, accumulated current accounts, interest rate differentials and oil prices. Some factors like the introduction of the euro, a relative increase in Swiss domestic...

With the help of a simple Ricardian model, this paper explores the role of industrial policy in self-enforcing trade agreements. A first part shows that the optimal self-enforcing trade agreement includes subsidies to inefficient, import-competing sectors. Second, when by some exogenous or endogenous force the comparative advantage deepens, subsidies go to declining industries. Key...

We analyze the financial integration of the new European Union (EU) member states' stock markets using the negative (positive) coexceedance variable that counts the number of large negative (large positive) returns on a given day across the countries. We use a multinomial logit model to investigate how persistence, asset classes, and volatility are related to the coexceedance...

While the direct impact of geographic endowments on prosperity is present in all countries, in former colonies, geography has also affected colonization policies and institutional outcomes. Thus, one can disentangle the partial effects of endowments and institutions on income by utilizing the interaction of geography and colonial experience. I first document that climate and disease...

This paper builds up an extension to the Mussa and Rosen (1978) model of quality pricing under perfect competition. Our model incorporates decreasing returns to scale. First, we predict that exchange rate shocks are imperfectly passed through into prices. Second, prices of low quality goods are more sensitive to exchange rate shocks than prices of high quality goods. Third, in...