Publications des institutions partenaires

S'abonner aux flux infonet economy   41 - 60 of 464

WP - 2020-07-29 - Angela Abbate, Sandra Eickmeier and Esteban Prieto: Financial shocks and inflation dynamics

We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the "missing disinflation" during the Great Recession. We apply a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to US data and identify financial shocks through a combination of narrative and short-run sign restrictions. Our main finding is that contractionary financial shocks...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 29/07/2020

WP - 2020-07-10 - Romain Baeriswyl, Kene Boun My and Camille Cornand: Double overreaction in beauty contests with information acquisition: theory and experiment

Central banks' disclosures, such as forward guidance, have a weaker effect on the economy in reality than that predicted in theoretical models. The present paper contributes to understanding how people pay attention and react to various sources of information. In a beauty contest with information acquisition, we show that strategic complementarities give rise to a double overreaction...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 10/07/2020

WP - 2020-05-28 - Albi Tola, Miriam Koomen and Amalia Repele: Deviations from covered interest rate parity and capital outflows: The case of Switzerland

We investigate the relationship between deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) and Swiss capital outflows since the great financial crisis. While the CIP held tightly before the crisis, it has been failing for most currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar ever since. We expect CIP deviations to adversely affect outflows, as they generally result in additional costs for...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 28/05/2020

WP - 2020-05-12 - Laurence Wicht: The margin of importing sectors in the gains from trade

A common assumption in the quantitative Ricardian international trade literature is that within a country, import shares are equalized across sectors. This assumption is at odds with the data, which show within-country heterogeneity in sectoral import behavior. I build a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium Ricardian trade model, in which I include a new extensive and...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 12/05/2020

WP - 2020-04-29 - Stefanie Behncke: Effects of macroprudential policies on bank lending and credit risks

I analyse the effects of two macroprudential policy measures implemented in Switzerland: the activation of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and a cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. I use a difference-in-differences method to estimate the effects of these measures on risk indicators, such as their LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios and mortgage growth rates. I find that...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 29/04/2020

WP - 2020-04-29 - Tan Schelling and Pascal Towbin: Negative interest rates, deposit funding and bank lending

In a negative interest rate environment, banks have generally proved reluctant to pass on negative interest rates to their retail depositors. Thus, banks that are more dependent on deposit funding face higher funding costs relative to other banks. This raises questions about the effect of negative interest rates on bank lending and monetary policy transmission. To study the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 29/04/2020

WP - 2020-04-29 - Kenza Benhima and Rachel Cordonier: News, sentiment and capital flows

We examine empirically the effect of two types of expectations-related shocks - "news" (increases in expected future productivity) and "sentiment" (surges in optimism unrelated to future productivity) - on gross capital flows. We find that news shocks lead to a decrease in both gross capital inflows and outflows, while sentiment shocks lead to an increase in both gross inflows and...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 29/04/2020

WP - 2020-04-29 - Bernard Dumas and Marcel R. Savioz: A theory of the nominal character of stock securities

We construct recursive solutions for, and study the properties of the dynamic equilibrium of an economy with three types of agents: (i) household/investors who supply labor with a finite elasticity, consume a large variety of goods that are not perfect substitutes and trade government bonds; (ii) firms that produce those varieties of goods, receive productivity shocks and set prices...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 29/04/2020

WP - 2020-03-25 - Christian Grisse: The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach

This paper revisits the effects of monetary policy on the exchange rate, focusing on the Swiss franc. I estimate a structural VAR using Bayesian methods introduced by Baumeister and Hamilton (2015) and identify monetary policy shocks by exploiting the interest rate and stock price comovement they induce. Priors are based on the previous empirical literature, leaving the exchange rate...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 25/03/2020

WP - 2020-03-25 - Fabian Fink, Lukas Frei, Thomas Maag and Tanja Zehnder: The impact of SNB monetary policy on the Swiss franc and longer-term interest rates

We estimate the impact of monetary policy rate changes made by the Swiss National Bank on the Swiss franc and on the expected path of future short-term interest rates. We employ an identification-through-heteroskedasticity approach to identify the causal effects. The approach accounts for the simultaneous relation of exchange rates and interest rates. We find that from 2000-2011, an...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 25/03/2020

WP - 2019-12-12 - Robert Oleschak: Central Counterparty Auctions and Loss Allocation

In this paper, I analyse first-price single-item auctions in case of a default of a clearing agent in a central counterparty (CCP). The bidding surviving clearing agents attach a private value to the item to be sold and share eventual losses with the CCP. The CCP as auctioneer can choose the time of auction and the loss allocation mechanism in order to minimize her own losses. I show...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 12/12/2019

WP - 2019-08-13 - Daniel Kohler and Benjamin Müller: Covered interest rate parity, relative funding liquidity and cross-currency repos

Deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) are considerably smaller or even zero when calculated based on a particular set of repo rates, so-called cross-currency repo rates, instead of standard interest rates, such as overnight indexed swap or Interbank Offered rates. We attribute this (partial) solution of the CIP puzzle to the nearly identical risk characteristics of...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 13/08/2019

WP - 2019-08-02 - Andreas M. Fischer and Pinar Yesin: Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches

This paper examines the effect of currency conversion programs from Swiss franc-denominated loans to other currency loans on currency risk for banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Swiss franc mortgage loans proliferated in CEE countries prior to the financial crisis and contributed to the volume of non-performing loans as the Swiss franc strongly appreciated during the post-...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 02/08/2019

WP - 2019-07-09 - Benjamin Anderegg, Didier Sornette and Florian Ulmann: Quantification of feedback effects in FX options markets

We model the feedback effect of delta hedging for the spot market volatility of the forex market (dollar-yen and dollar-euro) using an economy of two types of traders, an option market maker (OMM) and an option market taker (OMT), whose exposures reflect the total outstanding positions of all option traders in the market. A different hedge ratio of the OMM and OMT leads to a net...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 09/07/2019

WP - 2019-07-09 - Katrin Assenmacher, Franz Seitz and Jörn Tenhofen: The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence

Knowing the part of currency in circulation that is used for transactions is important information for a central bank. For several countries, the share of banknotes that is hoarded or circulates abroad is sizeable, which may be particularly relevant for large-denomination banknotes. We analyse the demand for Swiss banknotes over a period starting in 1950 to 2017 and use different...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 09/07/2019

WP - 2019-07-09 - Darlena Tartari and Albi Tola: Does the IMF Program Implementation Matter for Sovereign Spreads? The Case of Selected European Emerging Markets

The paper analyzes the impact of International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs, in conjunction with country-specific fundamentals and global factors, on the sovereign spreads in selected European emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2000 to 2016. For this purpose, we construct IMF indexes to capture the size of financial resources and the degree of implementation of IMF programs. Our...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

Full Text

English / 09/07/2019

Pages

Le portail de l'information économique suisse

© 2016 Infonet Economy