Publications des institutions partenaires
Christian Grisse, Signe Krogstrup and Silvio Schumacher: Lower bound beliefs and long-term interest rates
We study the transmission of changes in the believed location of the lower bound to longterm interest rates since the introduction of negative interest rate policies. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure combined with a lower bound on policy rates suggests that the transmission of policy rate changes to long-term interest rates is reduced when policy rates approach this...
Institution partenaire
English / 05/04/2017
Robert Müller: The new SNB exchange rate index
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is putting its calculated and published exchange rate indices on a new footing. This article describes the construction elements of the SNB's new exchange rate index, and presents the results of the new index calculation. The key aspects of the revision are: the application of the weighting method used by the IMF, which takes into account so-called third...
Institution partenaire
English / 03/04/2017
Robert Müller: The new SNB exchange rate index
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is putting its calculated and published exchange rate indices on a new footing. This article describes the construction elements of the SNB's new exchange rate index, and presents the results of the new index calculation. The key aspects of the revision are: the application of the weighting method used by the IMF, which takes into account so-called third...
Institution partenaire
English / 03/04/2017
Illuminating the Dark Side of Financial Innovation: The Role of Investor Information
This paper investigates the impact of investor information on financial innovation. We identify specific channels through which issuers of financially engineered products exploit retail investors by using their privileged access to information. Our results imply that imperfect investor information regarding volatility and dividends is crucial to explain the pricing and design of...
Institution partenaire
English / 10/03/2017
The Long-Term Performance of IPO's, Revisited
The literature on IPO long-term performance generally focuses on three- to five-year post-issue time horizons. Research published in the 2000s shows that the apparent underperformance of IPOs docu-mented in the 1990s disappears when the different risk exposures between IPO and mature firms are accounted for by using a Carhart (1997) factor model. In this paper, we show that a sample...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/03/2017
The Impact of Financial Advice on Trade Performance and Behavioral Biases
We use a dataset from a large retail bank to examine the impact of financial advice on investors’ stock trading performance and behavioral biases. Our data allow us to classify each individual trade as either advised or independent and to compare them in a trade-bytrade within-person analysis. Thus, our study is not plagued by the endogeneity problems typically faced by studies on...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/03/2017
Toni Beutler, Robert Bichsel, Adrian Bruhin and Jayson Danton: The Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending
In this paper, we empirically analyze the transmission of realized interest rate risk - the gain or loss in a bank's economic capital caused by movements in interest rates - to bank lending. We exploit a unique panel data set that contains supervisory information on the repricing maturity profiles of Swiss banks and provides us with an individual measure of interest rate risk...
Institution partenaire
English / 22/02/2017
Raphael A. Auer, Andrei A. Levchenko and Philip Sauré: International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via...
Institution partenaire
English / 22/02/2017
Toni Beutler, Robert Bichsel, Adrian Bruhin and Jayson Danton: The Impact of Interest Rate Risk on Bank Lending
In this paper, we empirically analyze the transmission of realized interest rate risk - the gain or loss in a bank's economic capital caused by movements in interest rates - to bank lending. We exploit a unique panel data set that contains supervisory information on the repricing maturity profiles of Swiss banks and provides us with an individual measure of interest rate risk...
Institution partenaire
English / 22/02/2017
Raphael A. Auer, Andrei A. Levchenko and Philip Sauré: International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages
We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via...
Institution partenaire
English / 22/02/2017
Alain Galli, Christian Hepenstrick and Rolf Scheufele: Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
We compare several methods for monitoring short-term economic developments in Switzerland. Based on a large mixed-frequency data set, the following approaches are presented and discussed: factor-based information combination approaches (including factor model versions based on the Kalman filter/smoother, a principal component based version and the three-pass regression filter), a...
Institution partenaire
English / 07/02/2017
Matthias Gubler and Christoph Sax: The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Reversed: New Evidence from OECD Countries
This paper explores the robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. We analyze an OECD country panel from 1970 to 2008 and compare three data sets on sectoral productivity, including newly constructed data on total factor productivity. Overall, our within- and between-dimension estimation results do not support the BS hypothesis. Over the last two decades, we find a robust...
Institution partenaire
English / 07/02/2017
Alain Galli, Christian Hepenstrick and Rolf Scheufele: Mixed-frequency models for tracking short-term economic developments in Switzerland
We compare several methods for monitoring short-term economic developments in Switzerland. Based on a large mixed-frequency data set, the following approaches are presented and discussed: factor-based information combination approaches (including factor model versions based on the Kalman filter/smoother, a principal component based version and the three-pass regression filter), a...
Institution partenaire
English / 07/02/2017
Matthias Gubler and Christoph Sax: The Balassa-Samuelson Effect Reversed: New Evidence from OECD Countries
This paper explores the robustness of the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. We analyze an OECD country panel from 1970 to 2008 and compare three data sets on sectoral productivity, including newly constructed data on total factor productivity. Overall, our within- and between-dimension estimation results do not support the BS hypothesis. Over the last two decades, we find a robust...
Institution partenaire
English / 07/02/2017
Severin Bernhard and Till Ebner: Cross-border Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Swiss Asset Prices
Unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan exert important spillover effects on asset prices in Switzerland if market anticipation of UMP announcements is properly accounted for. Using a broad event set and a long-term bond futures-based measure as a proxy for market anticipation of the...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/02/2017
Severin Bernhard and Till Ebner: Cross-border Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Swiss Asset Prices
Unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan exert important spillover effects on asset prices in Switzerland if market anticipation of UMP announcements is properly accounted for. Using a broad event set and a long-term bond futures-based measure as a proxy for market anticipation of the...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/02/2017
Has Crude Oil Become a Financial Asset? Evidence from Ten Years of Financialization
The financialization of crude oil markets over the last decade has changed the behavior of oil prices in fundamental ways. In this paper, we uncover the gradual transformation of crude oil from a physical to a financial asset. Although economic demand and supply factors continue to play an important role, recent indicators associated with financialization have emerged since 2008. We...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/02/2017
Competition in the Credit Rating Industry: Benefits for Investors and Issuers
We empirically investigate the benefits of multiple ratings not only at issuance of debt instruments but also during the subsequent monitoring phase. Using a record of monthly credit rating migration data on all U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities rated by Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch between 1985 and 2012 (154'600 tranches), our results provide em...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/02/2017
Financial distress and corporate investment
This paper analyzes whether the financial distress of a firm affects the investment decisions of non-distressed competitors. On average, firms in distress impose indirect costs to non-distressed competitors by increasing costs of credit in the industry and hence restricting credit access and investment. These average negative spillover effects continue to hold in the absence of...
Institution partenaire
English / 16/01/2017
Does Foreign Information Predict the Returns of Multinational Firms Worldwide?
We investigate whether value-relevant foreign information only gradually dilutes into stock prices of multinational firms worldwide. Using an international sample of firms from 22 developed countries, we find that a portfolio strategy based on firms' foreign sales information yields future returns of more than 10% p.a. globally. The return spread due to foreign information is...
Institution partenaire
English / 10/01/2017
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