Publications des institutions partenaires

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David Haab and Thomas Nitschka: Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks

Stylized facts of asset return predictability are mainly based on evidence from the US, a large, closed economy, and, hence, are not necessarily representative of small, open economies. Furthermore, discountrate news mainly drive US asset returns. This is not the case in other economies. We use Switzerland as example to highlight the importance of these issues and to assess the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 25/01/2018

Andreas M. Fischer, Rafael Greminger and Christian Grisse: Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress

This paper investigates time variation in the dynamics of international portfolio equity flows. We extend the empirical model of Hau and Rey (2004) by embedding a two-state Markov regime-switching model into the structural VAR. The model is estimated using monthly data for the period 1995-2015 on equity returns, exchange rate returns and equity flows between the United States and...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 25/01/2018

Christian Grisse and Silvio Schumacher: The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland

This paper studies the transmission of changes in short-term interest rates to longer-term government bond yields when interest rates are at very low levels or negative. We focus on Switzerland, where short-term interest rates have been at zero since late 2008 and negative since the beginning of 2015. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure implies that as nominal interest...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 25/01/2018

Petra Gerlach-Kristen, Richhild Moessner and Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch: Computing long‐term market inflation expectations for countries without inflation expectation markets

We derive daily market‐based domestic long‐term inflation expectations for eight countries without inflation swap markets. To do so, we use foreign inflation swaps together with (1) foreign and domestic interest rate swaps assuming that purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) hold or together with (2) spot and forward exchange rates assuming...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 25/01/2018

Christian Grisse, Signe Krogstrup and Silvio Schumacher: Lower bound beliefs and long-term interest rates

We study the transmission of changes in the believed location of the lower bound to longterm interest rates since the introduction of negative interest rate policies. The expectations hypothesis of the term structure combined with a lower bound on policy rates suggests that the transmission of policy rate changes to long-term interest rates is reduced when policy rates approach this...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 25/01/2018

The Choice of Interest Rate Models and Its Effect on Bank Capital Requirement Regulation and Financial Stability

According to the Basel regulation banks may use internal risk models to measure interest rate risk and calculate regulatory capital requirements. Under its pillar II the Basel framework grants leeway to banks in their choice of these models. We therefore focus on how well interest rate models describe real interest rate movements empirically and which impact the model choice has on...

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English / 01/01/2018

WP - 2017-12-29 - Gregor Bäurle, Sarah M. Lein and Elizabeth Steiner: Employment Adjustment and Financial Constraints - Evidence from Firm-level Data

Firms adjust their employment to changes in output. But they tend to adjust employment only partially. Typically, labor is hoarded in downturns and subsequently firms have to hire less in upturns. Investment in labor hoarding may therefore be influenced by factors that impede investments, such as financial constraints. Using firm-level data, we show that financial constraints increase the...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 29/12/2017

Momentum and Crash Sensitivity

This paper proposes a risk-based explanation of the momentum anomaly on equity markets. Regressing the momentum strategy return on the return of a self-financing portfolio going long (short) in stocks with high (low) crash sensitivity in the USA from 1963 to 2012 reduces the momentum effect from a highly statistically significant 11.94% to an insignificant 1.84%. We find additional...

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English / 15/12/2017

Adriel Jost: Is Monetary Policy Too Complex for the Public? Evidence from the UK

Central banks have increased their engagement in the information and education of the broad public. But what can be said about the nonprofessional’s knowledge of monetary policy and central banking? Based on the Bank of England’s Inflation Attitudes Survey, I construct a score to capture the central banking knowledge of the respondents. I show that the average British person displays...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 23/11/2017

Mathieu Grobéty: Government Debt and Growth: The Role of Liquidity

How does government debt affect long-run economic growth? A prominent strand of theoretical literature suggests that government debt has a negative effect on growth. Another strand argues that government debt can foster growth by enhancing the supply of liquid assets or collateral. We empirically investigate the liquidity channel of government debt and apply the difference-in-...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 10/10/2017

Winning a Deal in Private Equity: Do Educational Networks Matter?

Networks can establish business connections and facilitate information flows; but how valuable are they in competitive settings, such as in the deal generation of private equity funds? We find that educational ties between management teams of acquiring fund and target company are frequent (around 15%) and increase the odds of winning a deal (by 79%). When competing with other funds,...

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English / 01/10/2017

Something in the Air : Information Density, News Surprises, and Price Jumps

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy "ticker" news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the...

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English / 20/09/2017

Settling the Staggered Board Debate

We address the heated debate over the staggered board. One theory claims that a staggered board facilitates entrenchment of inefficient management and thus harms corporate value. Consequently, some institutional investors and shareholder rights advocates have argued for the elimination of the staggered board. The opposite theory is that staggered boards are value enhancing since they...

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/ 08/09/2017

Tail Risk in Hedge Funds : A Unique View from Portfolio Heldings

We develop a new tail risk measure for hedge funds to examine the impact of tail risk on fund performance and to identify the sources of tail risk. We find that tail risk affects the cross-sectional variation in fund returns, and investments in both, tail-sensitive stocks as well as options, drive tail risk. Moreover, managerial incentives and discretion as well as exposure to...

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English / 01/09/2017

Gregor Bäurle, Matthias Gubler and Diego R. Känzig: International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks

We analyze how the transmission of international inflation spillovers depends on the nature of the underlying shocks that drive inflation abroad. We find evidence for substantial heterogeneity in the magnitude of spillovers to domestic inflation related to the fundamental source of international price fluctuations and the corresponding monetary policy reactions. Indeed, it turns out that...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 31/08/2017

Alain Galli: Which indicators matter? Analyzing the Swiss business cycle using a large-scale mixed-frequency dynamic factor model

For policy institutions such as central banks, it is important to have a timely and ac-curate measure of past and current economic activity and the business cycle situation. The most prominent example for such a measure is gross domestic product (GDP). However, GDP is only released at a quarterly frequency and with a substantial delay. Furthermore, it captures elements that are not...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 29/08/2017

Lucas Marc Fuhrer: Liquidity in the Repo Market

This paper examines liquidity in the Swiss franc repurchase (repo) market and assesses its determinants using a proprietary dataset ranging from 2006 to 2016. I find that repo market liquidity has a distinct intraday pattern, with low liquidity in early and late trading hours. Moreover, repo market liquidity is negatively affected by stress in the global financial system and the end...

Institution partenaire

Banque nationale suisse

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English / 17/08/2017

Tail Risk in Hedge Funds: A Unique View from Portfolio Heldings

We develop a new tail risk measure for hedge funds to examine the impact of tail risk on fund performance and to identify the sources of tail risk. We find that tail risk affects the cross-sectional variation in fund returns, and investments in both, tail-sensitive stocks as well as options, drive tail risk. Moreover, managerial incentives and discretion as well as exposure to...

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English / 27/06/2017

Cultural Preferences and the Choice between Formal and Informal Financing

This paper documents significant differences in the financing structure of small firms with managers of diverse cultural backgrounds. To separate the effect of culture from other factors that affect the financing structure of firms, we exploit cultural heterogeneity within a geographical area with shared regulations, institutions, and macroeconomic cycles. Our findings suggest that...

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English / 01/05/2017

Monetary Policy and Currency Returns: the Foresight Saga

We document a drift in exchange rates before monetary policy changes across major economies. Currencies tend to depreciate by 0.7 percent over ten days before policy rate cuts and appreciate by 0.5 percent before policy rate increases. We show that available fixed income instruments allow to accurately forecast monetary policy decisions and thus that the drift is foreseeable and...

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English / 01/05/2017

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