This paper presents an empirical analysis of the role of trust in the relationship between venture capitalist and entrepreneur. Following the social sciences literature, we try to differentiate between trust as an affective, value-based category from confidence which is understood as a backward-looking, evidence-based mechanism. Using data from a survey among German venture capitalists conducted in 2003, we analyze 111 financing relationships from 75 respondents. We find a significant reciprocal positive relationship between trust and success. Other significant determinants of trust include the perceived quality of the entrepreneur and credibility of information (two proxy variables for measuring confidence), the perceived importance of reputation and the stage of the entrepreneur's venture. The level of monitoring and control is identified as a substitute for trust. We address a potential endogeneity of trust and success by estimating a system of two simultaneous equations by 3SLS and find the results to be robust. Finally, we use data from a second survey conducted in 2006 to assess whether trust predicts success. In fact, our results indicate that a higher level of trust in 2003 is associated with a higher success rate in 2006.
It is often argued that Black-Scholes (1973) values overstate the subjective value of stock options granted to risk-averse and under-diversified executives. We construct a "representative" Swiss executive and extend the certainty-equivalence approach presented by Hall and Murphy (2002) to assess the value-cost wedge of executive stock options. Even with low coefficients of relative risk aversion, the discount can be above 50% compared to the Black-Scholes values. Regression analysis reveals that the equilibrium level of executive compensation is explained by economic determinant variables such as firm size and growth opportunities, whereas the managers' pay-for-performance sensitivity remains largely unexplained. Firms with larger boards of directors pay higher wages, indicating potentially unresolved agency conflicts. We reject the hypothesis that cross-sectional differences in the amount of executive pay vanish when risk-adjusted values are used as the dependent variable.
We re-examine the empirical evidence concerning a well-known class of one-factor models for the short rate process (cf. Chan et al. [Journal of Finance 47 (1992) 1209] (CKLS)) and some recent extensions allowing for a nonlinear drift and for changing parameters with a new statistical methodology based on robust statistics, the Robust Generalized Method of Moments (RGMM). We find that standard GMM model selection procedures are highly unstable in these applications. When testing the CKLS models with the RGMM we find that they are all clearly misspecified and we identify a clustering of influential observations in the 1979-1982 subperiod, a time span that is well known to coincide with a temporary change in the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. This clustering of influential observations does not disappear when we introduce a non-linearity in the drift and allow for a parameter shift during the 1979-1982 period. Moreover, a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model (selected by the RGMM) might offer a satisfactory data description for the period after 1982, since there only a few isolated outliers are found. Comparable results are obtained for the Euro-mark case.
We examine the daily activity and performance of a large panel of individual investors in Sweden's Premium Pension System. We find that active investors earn higher returns and risk-adjusted returns than inactive investors. A performance decomposition analysis reveals that most of the outperformance of active investors is the result of these investors successfully timing mutual funds and asset classes. While activity is beneficial for some investors, extreme flows out of mutual funds affect funds' net asset values negatively for all investors. Financial advisors, by contributing to coordinate investments and redemptions, exacerbate these negative effects.
This paper studies the relation between fund performance and fund attributes in the Swedish market. Performance is measured as the alpha in a linear regression of fund returns on several benchmark assets, allowing for time-varying betas. The estimated performance is then used in a cross-sectional analysis of the relation between performance and fund attributes such as past performance, flows, size, turnover, and proxies for expenses and trading activity. The results show, among other things, that good performance is to be found among small equity funds, low-fee funds, funds whose trading activity is high, and in some cases, funds with good past performance.
Recent research has found evidence of the central role of trade credit in the financing of small businesses. In the United States, for example, trade credit is used by about 60 percent of small businesses; such a large incidence of use is not observed in any other financial service except checking accounts. This article analyzes several aspects of the trade credit agreement. It starts by explaining why trade credit is such an extended phenomenon in spite of the existence of a specialized financial sector. Then it discusses several aspects that make trade credit a unique and not fully contractual arrangement, whose value depends to a great extent on the value of the commercial relationship between the supplier and the buyer. It then focuses on the value of trade credit for entrepreneurial firms.
We explain the currency carry trade (CT) performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical CT strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean reverting in regimes of high foreign exchange volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the CT performance is better explained by a time-varying systematic risk that increases in volatile markets, suggesting a partial resolution of the uncovered interest parity puzzle.
The authors investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. It was found that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond-stock correlation, which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic announcement effects on realized bond and stock volatilities are also investigated.
