In this paper, we empirically evaluate competing approaches for combining inflation density forecasts in terms of Kullback–Leibler divergence. In particular, we apply a similar suite of models to four different datasets and aim at identifying combination methods that perform well throughout different series and variations of the model suite. We pool individual densities using linear and logarithmic combination methods. The suite consists of linear forecasting models with moving estimation windows to account for structural change. We find that combining densities is a much better strategy than selecting a particular model ex ante. While combinations do not always perform better than the best individual model, combinations always yield accurate forecasts and, as we show analytically, provide insurance against selecting inappropriate models. Logarithmic combinations can be advantageous, in particular if symmetric densities are preferred.
Kernstück des 2009 eingeführten Gesundheitsfonds ist die Einführung des morbiditätsorientierten Risikostrukturausgleichs. Die Einführung des so genannten Morbi-RSA hatte erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Wettbewerbsposition der Krankenkassen und die finanziellen Anreize zur Weiterentwicklung von Versorgungsstrukturen. In diesem Band des Jahrbuch liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Weiterentwicklung des Morbi-RSA. Die Herausgeber des Jahrbuchs Risikostrukturausgleich 2009/10 haben daher namhafte Autoren aus Wissenschaft und Praxis eingeladen, dieses Thema aus unterschiedlichen Perspektiven zu beleuchten.
Recent empirical studies provide evidence in favour of an equalization of male and female educational chances on the Master's level. This paper tackles the question whether gender inequalities develop after the completion of a Master's degree while starting an academic career. Using individual data from the Swiss Higher Education Information System we find that over the last decades the doctoral and habilitation rates for women are nearly always lower than the rates for men. With panel data on doctoral graduates in 2002 (drawn from the Swiss Graduate Survey 2003 and 2007) we identify the poorer integration of female emerging researchers in international academic networks and the related differences in social capital as a major cause for gender specific drop-out rates.
This study reports an experiment that examines whether groups can better comply with theoretical predictions than individuals in contests. Our experiment replicates previous findings that individual players significantly overbid relative to theoretical predictions, incurring substantial losses. There is high variance in individual bids and strong heterogeneity across individual players. The new findings of our experiment are that groups make 25% lower bids, their bids have lower variance, and group bids are less heterogeneous than individual bids. Therefore, groups receive significantly higher and more homogeneous payoffs than individuals. We elicit individual and group preferences towards risk using simple lotteries. The results indicate that groups make less risky decisions, which is a possible explanation for lower bids in contests. Most importantly, we find that groups learn to make lower bids from communication and negotiation between group members.
This paper sheds light on some unexpected consequences of health insurance regulation that may pose a big challenge to insurers' risk management. Because mandated uniform contributions to health insurance trigger risk-selection efforts, risk adjustment (RA) schemes become necessary. A good deal of research into the optimal RA formula has been performed. A recent proposal in Switzerland has been to add 'Hospitalization exceeding three days during the previous year' as an indicator of high risk. Applying the new formula to an individual Swiss health insurer, its payments into the RA scheme are predicted to increase substantially, reaching up to 13% of premium income. Its mistake had been to implement Managed Care successfully, resulting in low rates of hospitalization. The expected risk management response is to extend hospital stays beyond three days, contrary to stated policy objectives.
Human morality is a key evolutionary adaptation on which human social behavior has been based since the Pleistocene era. Ethical behavior is constitutive of human nature, we argue, and human morality is as important an adaptation as human cognition and speech. Ethical behavior, we assert, need not be a means toward personal gain. Because of our nature as moral beings, humans take pleasure in acting ethically and are pained when acting unethically. From an evolutionary viewpoint, we argue that ethical behavior was fitness-enhancing in the years marking the emergence of Homo sapiens because human groups with many altruists fared better than groups of selfish individuals, and the fitness losses sustained by altruists were more than compensated by the superior performance of the groups in which they congregated.
