Publications des institutions partenaires
EMU: why and how it might happen
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 20/12/2021
Alternative solutions to the odious debt problem
The doctrine of state succession requires that governments honor the international commitments of their predecessors. Even if a dictator borrows to oppress his own citizens, future generations are required to service the debts and commitments contracted by the dictator. This paper starts by briefly describing possible exceptions to this doctrine by focusing on war and hostile debts....
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 12/04/2021
The COVID-19 and bond spreads
Financial markets reacted with a vengeance to the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that while the spread of the pandemic is statistically significant in explaining changes to bond spreads, it has little additional explanatory power over variables that capture financial stress. Financial markets reacted as in any international financial crisis by penalizing emerging economies exposing...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 12/04/2021
The "burden" of Swiss public debt: lessons from research and options for the future
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 12/04/2021
Income inequality and economic growth: known unknowns
There is an emerging consensus that inequality is adversely related to growth. However, the empirical literature on the links between inequality and growth does not align with this simple narrative, especially because the channels through which inequality may affect growth remain poorly understood.
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 30/03/2021
India's lockdown
On March 24, 2020, the Government of India ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21 days as a preventive measure against the spread of the coronavirus. The lockdown - in full force as we write - restricts 1.3 billion people from leaving their homes. Transport services are suspended, educational institutions are closed, and factories are shut down. This is in line with the measures...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 24/04/2020
Searching for trade partners in developing countries: testing firms in the "fast fashion" industry
An integral part of global supply chains is the selection by international buyers of trading partners in developing countries. However, our understanding of how buyers find a suitable long term supplier is limited. I use unique buyer-seller customs data to directly observe experimentation activity in a large market - the "fast fashion" industry in Bangladesh. I study how buyers of...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 07/04/2020
Pandemic and panic: government as the supplier of last resort
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 07/04/2020
Political connections and financial constraints: evidence from Central And Eastern Europe
We examine whether political connections ease financial constraints faced by firms. Using firmlevel data from six Central and Eastern European economies, we show that politically connected firms are characterized by: (i) higher leverage, (ii) lower profitability, (iii) lower capitalization, (iv) lower marginal productivity of capital, and (v) lower levels of investment than...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 24/03/2020
So far, so good: and now don't be afraid of moral hazard
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 23/03/2020
Mitigating the COVID economic crisis: act fast and do whatever it takes
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 23/03/2020
Thinking ahead about the trade impact of COVID-19
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 20/03/2020
Increasing trust in bankers to enhance savings: experimental evidence from India
According to economic theory, repeated interactions can play a crucial role in shaping trust. We randomly allocated people to treatments that promote interactions with bankers. Next, these people play incentivised trust games with their own banker and with an anonymous other banker. While the effect on trust in the own banker is limited, the impact on trust in other bankers is...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 13/03/2020
When government promise to prioritize public debt: do markets care ?
During the European sovereign debt crisis of 2011-13, some nations faced with rising borrowing costs adopted commitments to treat bondholders as priority claimants. That is, if there was a shortage of funds, bondholders would be paid first. In this article, we analyze the prevalence and variety of these types of commitments and ask whether they impact borrowing costs. We examine a...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 10/03/2020
Inflation expectations: review and evidence
This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 10/03/2020
The motive to borrow
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 09/03/2020
BigTech and the changing structure of financial intermediation
We consider the drivers and implications of the growth of "BigTech" in finance – ie the financial services offerings of technology companies with established presence in the market for digital services. BigTech firms often start with payments. Thereafter, some expand into the provision of credit, insurance and money management products, either directly or in cooperation with...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 06/03/2020
Does leverage predict delinquency in consumer lending?: evidence from Peru
This paper examines to what extent household leverage—as measured by the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio—predicts delinquency in Peru’s consumer credit market. A model is estimated to assess the relation between delinquency and the DTI ratio. The initial and current DTI ratios are assessed as delinquency predictors. The results confirm that the current DTI ratio is effective for...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 05/03/2020
Globotics and development: when manufacturing is jobless and services are tradable
Globalization and robotics (globotics) are transforming the world economy at an explosive pace. While much of the literature has focused on rich nations, the changes are quite likely to affect developing nations in important ways. The premise of the paper - which should be regarded as a thought-piece - is based on an extreme thought experiment. What does development look like when...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 03/03/2020
China's offshore corporate dollar bonds
China's bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country's bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China's bond market structure, its unique...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
English / 24/02/2020
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