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OPPRIM: Opportunity-Enabled Risk Management for Trust and Risk-Aware Asset Access Decision-Making

Nowadays BYOD and mobile work are a reality even if they challenge traditional security perimeters and risk management that mainly focus on the threats that these mobile opportunities create. They do not consider their potential benefits, e.g., if a user cannot work when being paid then the productivity is lower. It is the reason that in this paper we introduce a new risk management...

Institution partenaire

Université de Genève

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English / 01/01/2015

Towards a logic and chemical based coordination model

In this paper we propose a coordination model that integrates logic programs into a chemical-based coordination framework. The goal is to engineer self-organising systems as well as assess their emergent global properties. Our model is generic and accommodates various logics and it is also powerful enough to supersede various chemical-based approaches. By tuning the internal logic...

Institution partenaire

Université de Genève

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English / 01/01/2015

Bank-firm relationships: A review of the implications for firms and banks in normal and crisis times

Banks are important providers of external finance to firms. In order to solve asymmetric information problems, firms and banks often engage in bank-firm relationships. Relationship banking occurs when a bank and a borrower enter multiple mutual interactions and both parties invest in obtaining some counterparty specific information, binding bank and firm, to a certain degree, to each...

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English / 01/01/2015

Multivariate asset return prediction with mixture models

The use of mixture distributions for modeling asset returns has a long history in finance. New methods of demonstrating support for the presence of mixtures in the multivariate case are provided. The use of a two-component multivariate normal mixture distribution, coupled with shrinkage via a quasi-Bayesian prior, is motivated, and shown to be numerically simple and reliable to...

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English / 01/01/2015

Robust capital requirements with model risk

We study capital requirements when the bank's econometric model only approximately describes the dynamics of portfolio returns—which is virtually always the case in practice. We derive a simple formula for capital requirements based on a first-order Taylor expansion of the Value at Risk around a ‘model confidence’ parameter. This formula allows to reflect the bank's...

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English / 01/01/2015

ALRIGHT: Asymmetric LaRge-Scale (I)GARCH with Hetero-Tails

It is well-known in empirical finance that virtually all asset returns, whether monthly, daily, or intraday, are heavy-tailed and, particularly for stock returns, are mildly but often significantly negatively skewed. However, the tail indices, or maximally existing moments of the returns, can differ markedly across assets. To accommodate these stylized facts when modeling the joint...

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English / 01/01/2015

Improving Investment Decisions with Simulated Experience

We apply a new and innovative approach to communicating risks associated with financial products that should support investors in making better investment decisions. In our experiments, participants are able to gain "simulated experience" by random sampling of a previously described return distribution. We find that simulated experience considerably improves participants’...

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English / 01/01/2015

An information system supporting cap and trade in organizations

We present a software system to create and implement internal markets in organizations that want to limit the CO2 emissions or the use of scarce resources by their employees. This system can be applied to domains such as business travel by distributing a limited number of permits for business travel-related CO2 emissions at the beginning of a period and then allowing the permits to...

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English / 01/01/2015

The economic impact of merger control legislation

We investigate the impact of legislative reforms in merger control legislation in nineteen industrial countries between 1987 and 2004. We find that strengthening merger control decreases the stock prices of non-financial firms, while increasing those of banks. Cross sectional regressions show that the discretion embedded in the supervisory control of bank mergers is a major...

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English / 01/01/2015

Differently unequal: Zooming-in on the distributional dimensions of the crisis in euro area countries

This paper discusses how income inequality developed during the current crisis in euro area countries, as well as the role played by each income source. Based on an extended definition of income – including additional components which do not appear in the standard Eurostat definitions – we complement the information provided by the Gini index and quantile ratios by computing an...

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English / 01/01/2015

Sovereign debt sustainability in advanced economies

We develop a measure of maximum sustainable government debt for advanced economies. How much investors are willing to lend to a country's government depends on how high a primary surplus they expect that government to generate, how fast they expect the country to grow, how volatile they expect that growth to be, and how much debt they expect the government will be able to raise...

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English / 01/01/2015

Herding and Stochastic Volatility

In this paper we develop a one-factor non-affine stochastic volatility option pricing model where the dynamics of the underlying is endogenously determined from micro-foundations. The interaction and herding of the agents trading the underlying asset induce an amplification of the volatility of the asset over the volatility of the fundamentals. Although the model is non-affine, a...

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English / 01/01/2015

A General Closed Form Option Pricing Formula

A new method to retrieve the risk-neutral probability measure from observed option prices is developed and a closed form pricing formula for European options is obtained by employing a modified Gram-Charlier series expansion, known as the Gauss-Hermite expansion. This expansion converges for fat-tailed distributions commonly encountered in the study of financial returns. The...

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English / 01/01/2015

Impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment in China

We analyze the impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment in China. Our estimates demonstrate that foreign direct investment across regions in China is increasing in the existing network of regional branches of foreign banks, which itself is driven (and therefore instrumented) by the timing of the regional phasing out of the local limits for foreign banks on local...

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English / 01/01/2015

New graphical methods and test statistics for testing composite normality

Several graphical methods for testing univariate composite normality from an i.i.d. sample are presented. They are endowed with correct simultaneous error bounds and yield size-correct tests. As all are based on the empirical CDF, they are also consistent for all alternatives. For one test, called the modified stabilized probability test, or MSP, a highly simplified computational...

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English / 01/01/2015

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