Publications des institutions partenaires
Investment gaps in IDB borrowing countries
We estimate public investment gaps in a sample of developing countries using a public investment demand function. We then use GDP per capita projections, forecasts of structural transformation, and three SDG targets (poverty, infant mortality and lower secondary school completion) to predict public investment needs in 2030 among IDB borrowing countries. Our estimates suggest that in...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 13/04/2018
Trade re(im)balanced: the role of regional trade agreements
This paper documents the novel fact that Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) decrease bilateral trade imbalances as measured by conventional measure of the net export share in gross trade. While on average an RTA decreases bilateral trade imbalance by 7%, greater trade integration through a deeper RTA is associated with a reduction of up to 50% among the sample of over 160 countries...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 13/04/2018
Exchange rates, international trade and growth: re-evaluation of undervaluation
This paper shows that a regional bias resulting from trade integration alters the transmission of a country's monetary policy by shifting the burden of the exchange rate adjustment towards the less integrated trading partners. I first develop a simple model which illustrates how a concentration of trade flows among regional trading partners a↵ects the sensitivity of the trade balance...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 13/04/2018
Structural budget balances in oil-rich countries: the cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia
This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 20/03/2018
Are fiscal rules helpful in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations?
In this paper we empirically examined the role of fiscal rules in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations in resource-rich economies using a structural panel VAR framework following P. Pedroni (2013) and incorporating identification scheme of Kilian (2009). Our key findings can be summarized as: l) oil exporting developing countries exhibit procyclical respond to positive...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 26/02/2018
How does environmental regulation shape economic development?: a tax competition model of China
We propose a novel theoretical framework to study how environmental regulation shapes economic development in a developing country such as China. We develop a dynamic tax competition model in which local governments, located in development zones, use variation in taxes to attract workers to their jurisdictions. Their objective is to maximize tax revenue less local health costs that...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 20/02/2018
The Advocate General's opinion in Intel: more consistent enforcement across practices and instruments
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 19/02/2018
A note on the economics of philanthropy
This note starts with a short review of the economic literature on philanthropy. Next, it provides some estimates of philanthropic giving in advanced and middle-income economies and discusses how innovative financial instruments can leverage charitable giving. The note concludes with a discussion of the controversial aspects of philanthropic activities.
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 09/10/2017
Public good provision in Indian rural areas: the returns to collective action by microfinance groups
Self-help groups (SHGs) are the most common form of microfinance in India. We provide evidence that SHGs, composed of women only, undertake collective actions for the provision of public goods. Using a theoretical model, we show that an elected official, whose aim is to maximise re-election chances, would exert higher effort in providing public goods when private citizens undertake...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 06/10/2017
Identities and public policies: unintended effects of political reservations for women in India
Identity is an important determinant of economic behavior. A limitation of the existing literature is the focus on one identity dimension at a time. We show that the multiplicity of identity dimensions matters for economic behavior and that neglecting it may lead policy makers to overlook important, unintended effects of economic policies. We exploit the randomized nature of...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 03/10/2017
The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: does the lender matter?
The paper shows that international government borrowing from multilateral development banks is countercyclical while international government borrowing form private sector lenders is procyclical. The countercyclicality of official lending is mostly driven by the behavior of the World Bank (borrowing from regional development banks tends to be acyclical). The paper also shows that...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 03/10/2017
Exchange rate elasticity of exports and the role of institutions
The impact of institutional quality on the exchange rate-export relation is assessed in a panel of 33 countries and quarterly time period of 1991Q1 - 2016Q3. Empirical estimation is conducted in 2 steps. As a first step, using panel DOLS, FMOLS and PMG estimation techniques, it is confirmed that a negative and significant relation between exchange rates and exports exists. The...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 03/10/2017
A reappraisal of state-owned banks
We revisit the public banks debate, survey the theoretical arguments and test the robustness (and expand) the existing empirical evidence. While we find some support for the view that public banks do not allocate credit optimally, we also report indicative evidence that they exert a positive influence on private bank efficiency, and may contribute to reduce credit procyclicality....
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
Français, English / 03/10/2017
Career dynamics and gender gaps among employees in the microfinance sector
While microfinance institutions (MFIs) are increasingly important as employers in the developing world, there is little micro-level evidence on gender differences among MFI employees and MFIs' relation to economic development. We use a unique panel dataset of employees from Latin America's largest MFI to show that gender gaps favouring men for promotion exist primarily in...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/08/2017
Conditional FAVAR and scenario analysis for a large data: case of Tunisia
The aim of this paper is to compute the conditional forecasts of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some variables in dynamic systems. We build a large dynamic factor models for a quarterly data set of 30 macroeconomic and financial indicators. Results of forecasting suggest that conditional FAVAR models which incorporate more economic information outperform the...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 18/08/2017
Factor models for non-stationary series: estimates of monthly U.S. GDP
This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equi- librium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation does not require differencing the data despite it being cointe- grated of order 1. We...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 06/07/2017
Non-linearities in the relationship between finance and growth
This paper reviews the empirical literature on the links between finance and growth with a special focus on the empirical literature that has shown that the marginal contribution of financial depth to economic growth becomes negative in countries with large financial sectors (the "too much finance result"). It then assesses the empirical and theoretical validity of recent...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 08/06/2017
The determinants of excess liquidity in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina
The aim of this research is to identify the determinants of excess liquidity defined as excess reserves in the banking sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H). The empirical analysis is carried out through the use of the dynamic panel analysis based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) methodology on a dataset of 19 commercial banks operating in B&H in the period from...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 08/06/2017
Micro, macro, and strategic forces in international trade invoicing
The use of different currencies in the invoicing of international trade transactions plays a major role in the international transmission of economic fluctuations. Existing studies argue that an exporter's invoicing choice reflects structural aspects of her industry, such as market share and the price-sensitivity of demand, the hedging of marginal costs, due for instance to the...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 30/05/2017
The banking sector and the Swiss financial account during the financial and European debt crises
The US financial crisis and the later eurozone crisis have substantially impacted capital flows into and out of financial centers like Switzerland. We focus on the pattern of capital flows involving the Swiss banking industry. We first rely on balance-of-payment statistics and show that net banking inflows rose during the acute phases of the crises, albeit with a contrasting pattern...
Institution partenaire
Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement
/ 29/05/2017
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