infonet-economy

Two models of how people predict the next outcome in a sequence of binary events were developed and compared on the basis of gambling data from a lab experiment using hierarchical Bayesian techniques. The results from a student sample (N = 39) indicated that a model that considers run length (“drift model”)—that is, how often the same event has previously occurred in a row—provided a...

Does problem gambling arise from an illusion that patterns exist where there are none? Our prior research suggested that “hot hand,” a tendency to perceive illusory streaks in sequences, may be a human universal, tied to an evolutionary history of foraging for clumpy resources. Like other evolved propensities, this tendency might be expressed more stongly in some people than others,...

In a world where business parameters are constantly changing, where uncertainty and geopolitical instability are on the rise, successful corporate transformation is one of the most critical – and most difficult – tasks for the Chief Strategy Officer (CSO). Adjusting to new conditions, which in an age of digitalization and hypercompetition often has to happen in real time, is akin to...

In ant algorithms, each individual ant makes decisions according to the greedy force (short term profit) and the trail system based on the history of the search (information provided by other ants). Usually, each ant is a constructive process, which starts from scratch and builds step by step a complete solution of the considered problem. In contrast, in Ant Local Search (ALS), each...

This article analyzes the effect of liquidity risk on the performance of equity hedge fund portfolios. Similarly to Avramov, Kosowski, Naik, and Teo (2007),(2011), we observe that, before accounting for the effect of liquidity risk, hedge fund portfolios that incor- porate predictability in managerial skills generate superior performance. This outperfor-mance disappears or weakens...

Market liberalization may not result in full market integration if implicit barriers are important. We test this proposition for investable and non-investable segments of twenty- two emerging markets (EMs). We also measure the degree of integration for six major developed markets (DMs) as a meaningful benchmark. We find that while the DMs are close to fully integrated, both EM...