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Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: An Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of...

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/ 09/08/2011

HIV/AIDS and Conflict: Micro Evidence from Burundi

This paper studies the relationship between civil war and HIV/AIDS in Burundi. It contributes to the empirical literature by providing micro level evidence using an identification strategy based on original data on the dynamics of rebel movements. The presence of exit and entry points from and to rebel safe havens is used to generate exogenous variation in conflict intensity. These...

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/ 09/08/2011

Aid, peasants and social exclusion

Using unique village census data collected in 2003 and 2008 in Senegal, we assess the impact of a major World Bank-funded Community Driven Development (CDD) program on membership and assortative matching in community-based organizations (CBOs). We implement both standard discrete choice and dyadic regression techniques. We find that channeling development aid through CBOs makes these...

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/ 09/08/2011

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