Publications des institutions partenaires
Systematic consumption risk in currency returns
We sort currencies into portfolios by countries’ past consumption growth. The excess return of the highest- over the lowest-consumption-growth portfolio – our consumption carry factor – compensates for negative returns during world-wide downturns and prices the cross-section of portfolio-sorted and of bilateral currency returns. Empirically, sorting currencies on consumption growth...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Voting with public information
We study the effect of public information on collective decision-making in committees, where members can have both common and conflicting interests. In the presence of public information, the simple and efficient vote-your-signal strategy profile no longer constitutes an equilibrium under the commonly-used simultaneous voting rules, while the intuitive but inefficient follow-the-...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
On linear transformations of intersections
For any linear transformation and two convex closed sets, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for when the transformation of the intersection of the sets coincides with the intersection of their images. We also identify analogous conditions for non-convex sets, general transformations, and multiple sets. We demonstrate the usefulness of our results via an application to...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Inducing variety: a theory of innovation contests
This paper analyzes the design of innovation contests when the quality of an innovation depends on the research approach, but the best approach is unknown. Inducing a variety of research approaches is desirable because it generates an option value. We show that suitable contests can induce such variety. The optimal contest is a bonus tournament, where suppliers can choose only...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Job mobility and creative destruction: flexicurity in the land of Schumpeter
This paper evaluates the 2003 Austrian severance-pay reform, often advocated as a role model for structural reforms in countries plagued by inflexible labor markets and high unemployment. The reform replaced a system with tenure-based severance payments after a layoff (but not after a quit) by payments into pension accounts that accrue to workers after a layoff as well as after a...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Gender differences in willingness to compete: the role of public observability
A recent literature emphasizes the importance of the gender gap in willingness to compete as a partial explanation for gender differences in labor market outcomes. However, whereas experiments investigating willingness to compete typically do so in anonymous environments, real world competitions often have a more public nature, which introduces potential social image concerns. If...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Hunting unicorns? Experimental evidence on predatory pricing policies
We study the anticompetitive effects of predatory pricing and the efficacy of three policy responses. In a series of experiments where an incumbent and a potential entrant interact, we compare prices, market structures and welfare. Under a laissez-faire regime, the threat of post-entry price cuts discourages entry, and allows incumbents to charge monopoly prices. Current U.S. policy...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Multiple testing of one-sided hypotheses: combining Bonferroni and the bootstrap
In many multiple testing problems, the individual null hypotheses (i) concern univariate parameters and (ii) are one-sided. In such problems, power gains can be obtained for bootstrap multiple testing procedures in scenarios where some of the parameters are 'deep in the null' by making certain adjustments to the null distribution under which to resample. In this paper, we...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Mortality inequality in Canada and the U.S.: divergent or convergent trends?
Mortality is a crucial dimension of wellbeing and inequality in a population, and mortality trends have been at the core of public debates in many Western countries. In this paper, we provide the first analysis of mortality inequality in Canada and compare its development to trends in the U.S. We find strong reductions in mortality rates across both genders and at all ages, with the...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Correlation between white matter microstructure and executive functions suggests early developmental influence on long fibre tracts in preterm born adolescents
Main objectives: Executive functions are frequently a weakness in children born preterm. We examined associations of executive functions and general cognitive abilities with brain structure in preterm born adolescents who were born with appropriate weight for gestational age and who have no radiological signs of preterm brain injury on neuroimaging.
Methods: The Stockholm...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Targeted undersmoothing
This paper proposes a post-model selection inference procedure, called targeted undersmoothing, designed to construct uniformly valid confidence sets for a broad class of functionals of sparse high-dimensional statistical models. These include dense functionals, which may potentially depend on all elements of an unknown high-dimensional parameter. The proposed confidence sets are...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/06/2017
Diffusion of behavior in dynamic networks
We analyze binary choice models in communication networks, in which both, the formation of links in the network as well as the action choices are endogenous. We provide a complete characterization of the equilibrium action choices and networks, where agents choose their strategies – actions and links – according to a perturbed best response update rule. We show that a...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
An experimental test of the Anscombe-Aumann Monotonicity axiom
Most models of ambiguity aversion satisfy Anscombe-Aumann’s Monotonicity axiom. Monotonicity imposes separability of preferences across events that occur with unknown probability. We construct a test of Monotonicity by modifying the Allais paradox to a setting with both subjective and objective uncertainty. Two experimental studies are conducted: while study 1 uses U.S. online...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
Testing-Based Forward Model Selection
This paper defines and studies a variable selection procedure called Testing-Based Forward Model Selection. The procedure inductively selects covariates which increase predictive accuracy into a working statistical regression model until a stopping criterion is met. The stopping criteria and selection criteria are defined using statistical hypothesis tests. The paper explicitly...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
Sharp convergence rates for forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models
Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-dimensional sparse linear models. Probabilistic bounds for...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
Monotone equilibria in signalling games
We study the monotonicity of sender’s equilibrium strategy with respect to her type in signalling games. We use counterexamples to show that when the sender’s payoff is non-separable, the Spence-Mirrlees condition cannot rule out equilibria in which the sender uses non-monotone strategies. These equilibria can survive standard refinements as incentives are strict and the sender plays...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
Concentrating on the fall of the labor share
The recent fall of labor's share of GDP in numerous countries is well-documented, but its causes are poorly understood. We sketch a "superstar firm" model where industries are increasingly characterized by "winner take most" competition, leading a small number of highly profitable (and low labor share) firms to command growing market share. Building on Autor...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
Functional connectivity between prefrontal and parietal cortex drives visuo-spatial attention shifts
It is well established that the frontal eye-fields (FEF) in the dorsal attention network (DAN) guide top-down selective attention. In addition, converging evidence implies a causal role for the FEF in attention shifting, which is also known to recruit the ventral attention network (VAN) and fronto-striatal regions. To investigate the causal influence of the FEF as (part of) a central...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
Spillover effects of institutions on cooperative behavior, preferences, and beliefs
Institutions are an important means for fostering prosocial behaviors, but in many contexts their scope is limited and they govern only a subset of all socially desirable acts. We study experimentally how the presence and nature of an institution that enforces prosocial behavior in one domain affects behavior in a similar but unregulated domain. Groups play two identical public good...
Institution partenaire
English / 01/05/2017
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