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Testing instrument validity for LATE identification based on inequality moment constraints

This paper proposes bootstrap tests for the validity of instrumental variables (IV) in just identified treatment effect models with endogeneity. We demonstrate that the IV assumptions required for the identification of the local average treatment effect (LATE) allow us to both point identify and bound the mean potential outcomes (i) of the always takers (those treated irrespective...

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English / 01/05/2015

Sovereign Risk and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Default Swaps

Based on an empirical analysis of European corporations, we investigate the impact of sovereign risk on the pricing of corporate credit risk. In our paper, we show that sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) are positively correlated with corresponding corporate CDS spreads and are a significant factor for corporate CDS pricing models. We also find that this impact increases throughout...

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English / 01/03/2015

A spot-forward model for electricity prices with regime shifts

We propose a novel regime-switching approach for the simulation of electricity spot prices that is inspired by the class of fundamental models and takes into account the relation between spot and forward prices. Additionally the model is able to reproduce spikes and negative prices. Market prices are derived given an observed forward curve. We distinguish between a base regime and an...

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English / 20/02/2015

Do Long-term Unemployed Workers Benefit from Targeted Wage Subsidies?

We evaluate a wage subsidy program that is targeted at long-term unemployed
workers in Germany. We use an alternative identification procedure compared to
empirical studies conducted so far. Exploiting the particular program regulations and
large administrative data we estimate the impact of program availability using a regression discontinuity framework. Our...

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English / 01/02/2015

Innovation and Trade in the Presence of Credit Constraints

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects investments in R&D at the firm level. In a model where entrepreneurs are heterogeneous in their wealth endowment, they rely differently on external funds. In the presence of capital market imperfections, this implies heterogeneous access to external funds such that poor entrepreneurs run smaller firms, are less likely to invest...

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English / 01/02/2015

Liability Issues Concerning Self-Driving Vehicles

This article deals with the civil liability issues that arise when self-driving vehicles are admitted to our streets. Firstly, it is explained why strict liability regimes for the vehicle holder, which are in place in several jurisdictions across Europe, are a workable foundation for ensuring compensation of the victim. However, accidents caused by highly automated vehicles will...

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English / 01/02/2015

Risk Management at Board Level : A Practical Guide for Board Members

Risk Management today has moved from being the topic of top level conferences and media discussions to being a permanent issue in the board and top management agenda. Several new directives and regulations in Switzerland, Germany and EU make it obligatory for the firms to have a risk management strategy and transparently disclose the risk management process to their stakeholders....

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English / 01/01/2015

Multivariate Dynamic Copula Models: Parameter Estimation and Forecast Evaluation

This paper introduces multivariate dynamic copula models to account for the time-varying dependence structure in asset portfolios. We firstly enhance the fexibility of this structure by modeling regimes with multivariate mixture copulas. In our second approach, we derive dynamic elliptical copulas by applying the dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) to multivariate elliptical...

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English / 01/01/2015

Econometric Analysis of 15-Minute Intraday Electricity Prices

The trading activity in the German intraday electricity market has increased significantly over the last years. This is partially due to an increasing share of renewable energy, wind and photovoltaic, which requires power generators to balance out the forecasting errors in their production. We investigate the bidding behavior in the intraday market by looking at both last prices and...

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English / 01/01/2015

Workplace health promotion and labour market performance of employees

This paper investigates the average effects of (firm-provided) workplace health promotion measures in form of the analysis of sickness absenteeism and health circles/courses on labour market outcomes of the firms' employees. Exploiting linked employer-employee panel data that consist of rich survey-based and administrative information on firms, workers and regions, we apply a...

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English / 01/01/2015

The Sources of Risk Spillovers Among U.S. REITs : Financial Characteristics and Regional Proximity

In this paper, we estimate the risk spillovers among 74 U.S. REITs using the statedependent sensitivity value-at-risk (SDSVaR) approach. This methodology allows for the quantification of the spillover size as a function of a company's financial condition (tranquil, normal, and volatile REIT prices). We show that the size of risk spillovers is more than twice as large when REITs...

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English / 01/01/2015

Pre-Trade Transparency and Return Co-movements in Commercial Real Estate Markets

This paper proposes an empirical framework that is based on pre-trade transparency to test for information-based return co-movements among international commercial real estate markets. We introduce a benchmark portfolio that includes property markets with a higher pre-trade transparency to assess expected returns in less transparent markets. Investors can earn abnormal returns in...

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English / 01/01/2015

Treatment effects and panel data

It is a major achievement of the econometric treatment effect literature to clarify under which conditions causal effects are non-parametrically identified. The first part of this chapter focuses on the static treatment model. In this part, I show how panel data can be used to improve the credibility of matching and instrumental variable estimators. In practice, these gains come...

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English / 01/01/2015

Electricity Market Coupling in Europe: Status Quo and Future Challenges

In electricity markets globally, market participants and policymakers increasingly focus on integrating adjacent, yet separate market areas via cross-border trade in electricity. Based on a discussion of the institutional framework for organizing cross-border trade, this paper analyzes how spot and futures prices for wholesale electricity are affected by different degrees of market...

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English / 01/01/2015

Announcement Effects of Contingent Convertible Securities: Evidence from the Global Banking Industry

This paper investigates the announcement effects of CoCo bonds issued by global banks between January 2009 and June 2014. Using a sample of 34 financial institutions, we examine abnormal stock price reactions and CDS spread changes before and after the announcement dates. We find that the announcement of CoCos correlates with positive abnormal stock returns and negative CDS spread...

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English / 01/01/2015

Financing Asset Sales and Business Cycles

This paper analyzes the decision of firms to sell assets to fund investments (financing asset sales). For a sample of U.S. manufacturing firms during the 1971-2010 period, we document new stylized facts about financing asset sales that cannot be explained by traditional motives for selling assets, such as financial distress or financing constraints. Using a structural model of...

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English / 01/01/2015

The Value of Creditor Governance: Debt Renegotiations In and Outside Distress

This paper analyzes the impact of debt covenant renegotiations on corporate policies. We develop a structural model of a levered firm that can renegotiate debt both at investment and in corporate distress. Covenant renegotiation at investment disciplines equity holders in their financing and investment decisions and, hence, mitigates the agency cost of debt. Our model explains the...

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English / 01/01/2015

Internal Control and Strategic Communication within Firms - Evidence from Bank Lending

The allocation of authority affects the communication of information about clients within banks. We document that in small business lending internal control leads loan officers to propose inflated credit ratings for their clients. Inflated ratings are, however, anticipated and partly reversed by the credit officers responsible for approving credit assessments. More experienced loan...

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English / 01/01/2015

Stock Underpricing and Firm News Disclosure

Using a sample of 77,036 firm-quarters, we test whether firms change their news disclosure when experiencing an exogenous negative shock to their stock price. We use mutual fund flow-induced selling pressure to measure exogenous undervaluation and classify news as positive and negative based on textual analysis. Our results show a robust negative relationship between mutual fund flow...

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English / 01/01/2015

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