This paper develops a model with sequential production stages and international trade frictions that permits an analysis of how decreases in trade costs shape the interdependence between countries, with special focus on the joining and industrialization pattern of developing countries into the global value chains (GVCs). I show that in a two-country setting, a decrease in trade costs of intermediates is associated with South moving up the value chain and both North and South experiencing welfare improvement, combined with a non-linear wage response. Then I extend the model into a multi-country setting with two simple thought experiments. I show that when global trade frictions fall, South countries join supply-chain networks due to wage differentials and low trade costs; this increases the North wage but may decrease the wages of an insider South. In addition, “Factory South” are regionally clustered. The model provides a first look at GVCs from the development angle, and raises several interesting policy concerns regarding GVC governance.
This paper uses detailed information on the latitude and longitude of conflict events within a set of Sub-Saharan African countries to study the impact of external income shocks on the likelihood of violence. We consider a number of external demand shocks faced by the country or the regions within countries - changes in the world demand of agricultural commodities, financial crises in the partner countries or changes in foreign trade policy - and combine these with information reflecting the natural level of trade openness of the location. We find that (i) within-country, the incidence, intensity and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income shocks within locations; (ii) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations, i.e those located away from the main seaports, (iii) at country-level, we cannot detect any significant effect of these shock on conflict incidence or onset; but (iv) large and longlasting shocks seem to affect the location of conflict outbreaks. In general, our results suggest that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of conflicts within countries. However, conflicts tend to start in remote locations which are naturally less affected by foreign shocks, which might explain why these seem to have little effect on conflict onset at the country-level.
This paper builds a new dataset with detailed information on the universe of foreign government bonds issued in New York in the 1920s and uses these data to describe the behavior of the financial intermediaries which operated in the New York market during the period leading to the interwar debt crisis. The paper starts by showing that concerns over reputation played an important role in intermediaries‘ underwriting choices. Next, the paper checks whether banks managed to charge abnormal underwriting fees on bonds that would eventually default and finds no evidence of such practice (―banksterism‖). The paper concludes by discussing some parallels between the experience of the 1920s and the current debate on the "originate and distribute" model.
