We revisit the simultaneous equations model of rebellion, mobilization, grievances and repression proposed by Gurr and Moore (1997). Our main contribution is to clarify and improve on the underlying identification strategy and to emphasize the role played by the institutional environment. Instrumental variables estimates for post-colonial societies reveal that the strength of the state, as proxied empirically by an index of bureaucratic quality, exerts a strong preventive effect on rebellion. On the other hand, working institutions also influence the likelihood of rebellion indirectly, through mobilization. As such, the total net effect of state capacity on rebellion is ambiguous.
The cross-border flows of goods, investment, services, know-how and people associated with international production networks–call it ‘supply-chain trade’ for short–has transformed the world. The WTO has not kept pace. This paper argues that adapting world trade governance to the realities of supply-chain trade will require a new organization–a WTO 2.0 as it were. Reasoning on the optimal nature of the new organization is based on the nature of supply-chain trade, the nature of the disciplines that underpin it, and the nature of the gains from cooperation.
This paper presents an impact evaluation of three nutritional programs implemented in Puebla, Mexico, run by SEDIF, a social assistance institution. The present study uses both a propensity score matching and weighting in order to balance the treatment and the control groups in terms of observable characteristics, and to estimate, later on, the causal effect of the programs on different areas: food support, food orientation, education, and health. This investigation adds strong empirical evidence about the beneficial effects of nutritional programs on growth indicators (i.e. on anthropometric variables). In addition, it provides some evidence about the favorable impact of this kind of programs on food orientation outcomes, such as eating habit changes or diet diversity, variety, and quality. However, this study unveils only marginal effects on food security and detrimental effects on educational outcomes(specifically on student's marks). Finally, it does not provide conclusive effects on health.
In 1994, the Zapatistas took up arms claiming for indigenous people rights in Chiapas, Mexico. After 12 days of civil war, the national government called for dialogue. Nevertheless, since then, it has deployed a "low intensity war" over the self-declared Zapatista Autonomous Communities. At the same time, the Zapatistas started to implement a new set of institutions, which have allegedly enhanced their socio-economic situation. The purpose of this study is, thus, to elucidate this ambiguous theoretical effect on the wellbeing of the communities under harassment. This paper generates a unique dataset, linking socio-economic variables from the Mexican Census with different measures of conflict intensity at the locality level, based on geo-coded influence areas from the military and police positions disseminated throughout Chiapas. The present investigation controls for the endogeneity in the relationship between conflict and the socio-economic performance, instrumenting the former by the distance from each locality to a strategic military spot defined by the Zapatista Army for its uprising in 1994 on the natural boundary of the Lacandon Jungle. The results, robust to different specifications and conflict intensity definitions, imply that the impact of the Zapatista institutions has surpassed the negative effect of the civil strive, suggesting that: i) bottom-up policies carried out by grass-root organizations, even in times of conflict, might represent an appropriate path for endogenous socio-economic development; and ii) the Mexican government should recognize the Zapatista autonomy and its right for self-determination.
Microfinance has played a key role in including the poor in financial markets. This paper uses microfinance data to approximate financial inclusion in the poorer segments of the population and proposes a quantile regression approach to study the development of microfinance markets. Our approach accounts for the dynamic and heterogeneous impacts that key drivers may have across different stages of market development. It also allows us to go beyond correlations and gets us closer to identifying causal relationships. Our key findings indicate that: i)microfinance markets are more responsive to the needs of the bottom of the pyramid than to potential growth opportunities ii) Enabling institutions that provide credit information become increasingly important with higher market complexity iii) Formal financial development is a complement of microfinance development iv) Technologies can help to overcome market entry barriers, and to enable a higher inclusion in markets with a high degree of complexity. Our results could help policymakers and investors better understand and influence financial inclusion at the bottom of the pyramid across different stages of market development.
This paper proposes novel identification techniques to examine the trade-offs that microfinance institutions face between increasing their profits and their social impact. It uses a quantile regression approach to examine how these trade-offs evolve as institutions become more commercialized. The identification strategy is based on an instrumental variable approach, and also leverages the heteroskedasticity in the sample. The findings indicate that increasing outreach to women, a common proxy for social impact, has a positive effect on the financial performance of all institutions across different stages of commercialization. This suggests that there is no trade-off between doing well and doing good. However, the price differential that microfinance institutions can maintain with respect to their competitors becomes more important for them as they become more commercialized. If this price differential is not explained by a better quality of the services provided, this result questions whether microfinance institutions that have reached a high level of commercialization can still do well and do good. The results are robust to potential sample selection biases, and are consistent for different measures of financial performance.
We conduct an impact evaluation of the minimum wage legislation for domestic workers that was introduced in four states in India over the period of 2004-2012. Combining the matching and difference-in-difference estimation strategies we estimate both the short-run and long-run impacts of the legislation on real wages and on employment opportunities. Our results show a positive impact of the legislation on real wages in the short-run, albeit of very small magnitude.However, the legislation seems to have no impact on real wages in the long-run. Further, the legislation did not seem to have had any impact on the extensive margin in terms of employment opportunities or the probability of being employed as a domestic worker in both the short and long run. Our conclusion is that minimum wage legislation for domestic workers need not improve the living standards of workers unless accompanied by strong enforcement mechanisms. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt at quantitatively evaluating the impact of minimum wage legislation for domestic workers in India.
