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Assessing house price dynamics in Lima

This paper uses a two-step procedure to analyze the long-run dynamics between real house prices and their fundamentals in Lima, Peru. In this framework, first a hedonic price index is calculated, and then used for estimating a quarterly vector error correction model over the period 1998-2014. The price determinants considered in this application are: real mortgage interest rate, real…

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/ 08/07/2015

Financial soundness index for the private corporate sector in Colombia

This paper evaluates the importance of building a composite metric of financial soundness for the private corporate sector in Colombia. Instead of relying on the individual and sometimes restrictive financial ratio analysis approach, the purpose of this document is to provide a single metric aimed at measuring the financial health of firms. Said metric, the financial soundness index…

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/ 08/07/2015

Estimating the determinants of financial euroization in Albania

This paper examines the phenomenon of financial euroization in Albania, focusing on the liability side of the banking system. It explores some of the main theoretical and empirical determinants of deposit euroization in the context of the high euroization rates originating in the transition period of the early 1990s. Despite gradual improvements in the macroeconomic framework,…

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/ 08/07/2015

Macro-prudential policies, moral hazard and financial fragility

This paper presents a DSGE model with banks that face moral hazard in management. Banks receive demand deposits and fund investment projects. Banks are subject to potential withdrawals by depositors which may force them into early liquidation of their investments. The likelihood of this happening depends on the bank management efforts to keep the bank financially sound and the degree…

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/ 08/07/2015

This mine is mine!: how minerals fuel conflicts in Africa

We combine original geo-referenced data on mining extraction of 15 minerals with information on conflict events at spatial resolution of 0.5o x 0.5o for all Africa over 1997-2010. Exploiting exogenous variations in world prices, we find a positive impact of mining on conflict at the local level. Quantitatively, the historical rise in prices (commodity super-cycle) explains 15-25…

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/ 08/07/2015

Banking integration and fragmentation in the interest rate channel

At the forefront of the economic consolidation of the euro area, banking integration came to a stall following the beginning of the 2008 crisis. Since then European banks started retrenching their asset holdings within national borders, effectively reducing the scale of their European operations. This paper explores the link between banking integration and fragmentation in the…

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/ 07/07/2015

Quand exporter aide à vendre chez soi

Comment les chocs de demande subis par les entreprises françaises sur leurs ventes à l’étranger se répercutent-ils sur leurs ventes en France ? Cette Lettre présente les résultats d’une analyse empirique mettant en évidence une relation de complémentarité entre exportations et ventes domestiques. Une hausse de 10% des exportations engendre, la même année, un accroissement des ventes…

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/ 03/07/2015

Minimum wage law for domestic workers: impact evaluation of the indian experience

We conduct an impact evaluation of the minimum wage legislation for domestic workers that was introduced in four states in India over the period of 2004-2012. Combining the matching and difference-in-difference estimation strategies we estimate both the short-run and long-run impacts of the legislation on real wages and on employment opportunities. Our results show a positive impact…

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English / 22/05/2015

International capital flows

The surge in international asset trade since the early 1990s has lead to renewed interest in models with international portfolio choice. We develop the implications of portfolio choice for both gross and net international capital flows in the context of a simple two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We focus on the time-variation in portfolio allocation…

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/ 29/04/2015

Monetary implications of the crisis: dominance at stake

The paper asks whether the financial crisis is upsetting the struggle for dominance between monetary and fiscal policy. It argues that a crisis is indeed a key moment when challenges to monetary policy dominance are greatest. However, the need to bail out financial institutions blurs the distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. The subsequent shift to public debt stress…

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/ 28/04/2015

Pricing-to-market, trade policy, and market power

This paper studies the determinants of pricing-to-market at the firm-level, with a particular focus on the role of firm-specific and policy-induced market power. We use a large dataset containing export values and quantities by product and destination for all exporting firms in 12 developing and emerging countries, over several years. We first show that firms in our sample do price…

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/ 01/04/2015

Demand learning and firm dynamics: evidence from exporters

This paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms' dynamics. We present a simple model with Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand parameter in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives in each period. The model predicts that firms update more their beliefs…

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/ 01/04/2015

Global value chains: benefiting the domestic economy?

Global Value Chains (GVCs) have become a central topic in trade and development policy but little is known about their actual impact on economic performance because data availability has been limited. Using a new unique set of Inter-Country Input-Output tables with extensive country coverage, I look at the relationship between GVC participation and domestic value added at the…

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/ 01/04/2015

Saving by default: evidence from a field experiment in India

A growing share of the world population is getting access to a formal bank account. This allows a move from cash to account based payments. Grounding our hypothesis in behavioral economics, we conjecture that being paid on an account instead of in cash can play a major role in encouraging savings. When paid on the account, the money is saved by default, while - as long as payments…

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English / 01/04/2015

The risk of self-protection: the role of bank bailout guarantees in channelling sovereign credit risk internationally

This paper investigates the role of banks’ foreign asset holdings in transmitting credit risk internationally. Foreign exposure in risky assets might severely affect the solvability of credit institutions. Credit risk, in turn, transfers from banks to public accounts as a consequence of implicit or explicit bailout guarantees to distressed banking systems. This paper articulates this…

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/ 01/04/2015

European champions and competition enforcement: is DG COMP in ideological denial?

In the wake of the Alstom restructuring, the French government indicated that current merger control rules do not allow for the development of European champions and called for a change in the rules. This paper argues that such a move may be not be advisable but that enforcement of the current rules should be improved, in particular regarding the assessment of efficiencies and the…

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/ 01/04/2015

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