infonet-economy

Household surveys often suffer from nonresponse on variable such as income, savings or wealth. The work by Charles F. Manski in the 1990s shows how bounds on conditional quantiles on the variable of interest can be derived, allowing for any type of non-random item nonresponse. The width between these bounds can be reduced using follow up questions in the form of unfolding brackets…

Granger and Sims non-causality (GSNC) are compared to non-causality based on concepts popular in the microeconometrics and programme evaluation literature (potential outcome non-causality, PONC). GSNC is defined as a set of restrictions on joint distributions of random variables with observable sample counterparts, whereas PONC combines restrictions on partially unobservable…

This paper proposes estimators of unconditional distribution functions in the presence of covariates. The methods are based on the estimation of the conditional distribution by (parametric or nonparametric) quantile regression. The conditional distribution is then integrated over the range of the covariates, allowing for the estimation of counterfactual distributions. In the…

Using data on the preference and utilization rates of NAFTA for Mexican exports to the United States in 2001, this chapter proposes a method to estimate the likely costs of different Rules of Origin (ROO) for final and intermediate goods, and compares these results with those obtained using the synthetic index proposed by Estevadeordal (2000). Econometric results indicate that…

Almost 15 years after Unification in 1990, Germany is still struggling with the economic consequences of this event. Although the East German economy has made considerable progress since its near-collapse after the German monetary, economic and social union in July 1990, the East German labour market has not yet recovered. Western Germany, which had to bear a substantial part of the…

Dans cet article, nous proposons une méthodologie qui offre de nouvelles perspectives dans le contexte de la pauvreté multidimensionnelle. Dans une première étape, on effectue une analyse factorielle afin de construire des indicateurs de pauvreté basés sur de nombreuses dimensions potentielles et sans imposer de contrainte à priori. Les variables de base sont alors combinées dans…

This paper uses a gravity model to assess ex-post regional trade agreements. The model includes 130 countries and is estimated with panel data over the period 1962–1996. The introduction of the correct number of dummy variables allows for identification of Vinerian trade creation and trade diversion effects, while the estimation method takes into account the unobservable…