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Relative Implied-Volatility Arbitrage with Index Options

This study investigates the efficiency of markets as to the relative pricing of similar risk by using implied volatilities of options on highly correlated indexes and a statistical arbitrage strategy to profit from potential mispricings. It first analyzes the interrelationships over time of the 3 most highly correlated and liquid pairs of US stock indexes. Based on this analysis, the…

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English / 01/11/2002

Monetary Policy and the Fisher Effect

Historical estimates of the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This study uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how monetary policy affects the relation between nominal interest rates, inflation expectations, and real interest rates. The benchmark parameters, including the…

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English / 01/07/2001

Tracking Error and Tactical Asset Allocation

The relationship between statistical measures of tracking error and asset allocation restrictions expressed as admissible weight ranges is discussed. Tracking errors are typically calculated as annualized second moments of return differentials between a portfolio and a benchmark. In practice, however, constraints on tactical deviations from benchmark weights are often imposed on the…

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English / 01/03/2001

Performance and Characteristics of Swedish Mutual Funds

This paper studies the relation between fund performance and fund attributes in the Swedish market. Performance is measured as the alpha in a linear regression of fund returns on several benchmark assets, allowing for time-varying betas. The estimated performance is then used in a cross-sectional analysis of the relation between performance and fund attributes such as past…

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English / 01/09/2000

Evaluating the Long-Term Risk of Equity Investments in a Portfolio Insurance Framework

The impact of the time horizon upon the risk of equity investments is still a controversial issue. In this paper, we analyse long-term risk in a portfolio insurance framework based on option pricing theory. The insurance strategies are implemented alternatively with a portfolio of stocks and put options or bonds and call options. The risk of stock holdings is measured by the…

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English / 01/07/2000

Market Expectations in the UK Before and After the ERM Crisis

The British pound left the ERM on 16 September 1992 after a period of turbulence. UK monetary policy soon shifted to lower short interest rates and an inflation target was announced. This paper uses daily option prices to estimate how the market's probability distribution of the future marks/pound exchange rate and UK and German interest rates changed over the summer and autumn…

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English / 01/02/2000

Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy

Macro models of monetary policy typically involve forward looking behavior. Except in rare circumstances, we have to apply some numerical method to find the optimal policy and the rational expectations equilibrium. This paper summarizes a few useful methods, and shows how they can be combined with a Kalman filter to estimate the deep model parameters with maximum likelihood.…

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English / 01/01/1999

New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments

This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. More recently, these methods have been refined to rely on implied forward…

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English / 01/10/1997

What size should banks want to be?

Contents

1. The optimal size of a single bank depends on the technology
2. To which degree should a bank wish to be regulated?
3. Banks versus capital markets

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English / 01/01/1996

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