Not available in German. This study analyses the effects of public-sector-sponsored continuous vocational training and retraining in East Germany after unification with West Germany in 1990. It presents econometric estimates of the average gains from training participation in terms of employment probabilities, earnings, and career prospects after the completion of training using a matching approach. The data is from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP, 1990-1996). The GSOEP allows the researcher to observe individual behavior on a monthly or on a yearly basis. The results suggest that despite large public expenditures there are no positive effects in the first years after training.
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Not available in German. The paper suggests two multi-step estimation methods for dynamic limited dependent variable models with random effects on panel data. The estimated coefficients are consistent, in the sense that the number of individuals tends to infinity and the number of time periods is fixed. The error terms are assumed to be independently and identical distributed across individuals, but otherwise unrestricted. The estimators have the advantages that they are asymptotically efficient in their proposed class, and that the vast literature on parametric and semi-parametric estimators of limited dependent variable models for cross-sections as well as the resulting software can be utilised. The small sample behaviour of the methods is investigated using a Monte Carlo study. The preferred method is applied to the analysis of the dynamics of self-employment in the former East Germany after unification.
The Estimation of Causal Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods presents a brief overview of the literature on the difference-in-difference estimation strategy and discusses major issues mainly using a treatment effect perspective that allows more general considerations than the classical regression formulation that still dominates the applied work.
Not available in German. German unification led a drastic decline in the East German birth rate. Recent explanations of this phenomena point to the importance of an adjustment process of the East German pattern with often early births to the West German pattern with fairly late births. The paper presents an update on previous analyses of age specific birth rates, as well as a new microeconomic approach based on individual data. The empirical evidence presented in this paper supports the view that the sharp reduction in East German fertility is in fact part of an adjustment process towards West German fertility patterns. (doi:10.1023/A:1010792230291)
Paneldaten gewinnen als Datenmaterial für empirische Studien im Bereich der Wirtschaftswissenschaften, sowie auch in vielen anderen empirisch ausgerichteten Forschungsfeldern, eine immer grössere Bedeutung. Das Papier gibt einen nichttechnischen Überblick über in der ökonometrischen Paneldatenanalyse populäre lineare und nichtlineare Modelle und diskutiert die Annahmen, unter denen die geschätzten Modellparameter eine kausale Interpretation besitzen. Download Dicussion Paper (Deutsch): (pdf, 114 kb)
Heutzutage betreiben viele europäische Länder neben einer passiven Einkommensabsicherung der Arbeitslosen auch eine substantielle aktive Arbeitsmarktpolitik (Fortbildungskurse, Beschäftigungsprogramme, etc.), um deren Wiederbeschäftigung zu beschleunigen. Dieses Papier entwickelt in groben Zügen die Vision einer gezielten wirkungsorientierten aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik, wie sie in entwickelten Volkswirtschaften durchgeführt werden könnte. Es wird argumentiert, dass diese Vision sowohl wünschenswert als auch umsetzbar ist, auch wenn die gegenwärtige Situation in der Schweiz und in Deutschland noch weit davon entfernt ist. Es zeigt sich ausserdem, dass zwischen Deutschland und der Schweiz erhebliche Unterschiede bestehen, wobei die Schweiz auf dem Weg zu einer wirkungsorientierten aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik schon wesentlich weiter vorangeschritten ist. (doi:10.1111/1468-2516.00084)
Mit der deutschen Vereinigung war ein massiver Einbruch der Geburtenzahlen in den neuen Bundesländern (NBL) verbunden. Diese Arbeit analysiert zum einen mit dem theoretischen Rahmen der neoklassischen Bevölkerungsökonomie die Incentivewirkungen der Institutionen, die vor und nach der Vereiningung in den NBL anzutreffen waren. Zum anderen wird im empirischen Teil mit Kohortendaten des Statistischen Bundesamts und den Individualdaten des Sozioökonomischen Panels die Bedeutung der möglichen Erklärungen analysiert. Nahezu alle verfügbare Evidenz spricht für eine Interpretation des Geburtenrückgangs als Anpassungsprozess an das westliche Fertilitätsmuster, das vor allem durch wesentlich spätere Geburten im Lebenszyklus einer Frau gekennzeichnet ist.
Not available in German. The paper studies the returns from enterprise-related continuous vocational training on individual earnings, unemployment probabilities, and other labour market indicators in East Germany after unification. It attempts to solve the intrinsic identification problem of such evaluation problems nonparametrically by using restrictions produced by unification as well as by using very informative panel data (GSOEP, 1990-1994). The estimation is performed with nonparametric methods taking account of the panel structure. The results suggest that there are no effects with respect to employment and unemployment probabilities, but that there are large and positive earnings effects.
(http://www.jstor.org/stable/20076193 )
Not available in German. Retraining the labor force to match the demands of a modern economy is an important task during the transition process from a centrally planned to a market economy. This need is particular pressing in East Germany, because the transition process is much faster there than in the rest of Eastern Europe. Therefore, substantial resources are devoted to this purpose. This paper analyses the impact of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany from the point of view of the individuals who were in the labor force before German unification in 1990. It answers questions about the average gains from participating in a specific type of training. Typical outcomes considered to measure these gains are income, employment status, job security and expected career prospects. The methodology used for the empirical evaluation is the potential outcome approach to causality. This approach has received considerable attention in the statistical literature over the last 15 years and it has been recently rediscovered by the econometric literature as well. Here, it is adapted to allow for important permanent and transitory shocks that influence the decision to participate in the training as well as future labor market outcomes. The empirical results are based on the first five waves of the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP)-East (1990-1994). This panel data set has the advantage that the fourth wave contains a special survey on continuous training and that it allows to keep track of individual behaviour on a monthly, respectively yearly, basis. The econometric analysis focuses on off-the-job training courses that began after unification. Although it is obviously too early to evaluate the long-run implications, the results suggest that at least in the short-run there are no positive effects.
Not available in German. We estimate Frisch labor supply functions for married women using information on desired hours, under the assumptions that these are based on a smooth convex approximation of the budget constraint. The minimum distance appproach used allows for correlated random effects both in the wage and in the taste-shifter equations, and for an unbalanced panel. We use a subsample of the German Socio-economic Panel for the years 1985-1989.
