This paper studies the effect of financial booms and extreme asset valuations on the relative demand for skills and the wage structure. The substantial rise in wage inequality in the U.S. since the late 1970s has been accompanied by a major expansion of financial services, a series of asset bubbles, and rising relative wages and relative education in the financial industry. I motivate and develop a theoretical framework where financial institutions benefit from financial booms and asset bubbles. Yet the complexity and novelty of financial products and fundamentals surrounding bubbles favor the supremacy of skilled individuals in exploiting these opportunities. Hence financial booms increase opportunities for skilled labor, contributing to the rise in overall wage inequality in the economy. Simple extensions of the basic framework allow us to study the implications of financial regulation and globalization of financial services, as well as further topics. Finally, the paper documents and compares relative wage and employment patterns in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and France, providing suggestive evidence for the theoretical framework.
This paper explores the labor supply effects of a large-scale policy change in the Austrian disability insurance program, which tightened eligibility criteria for men above a certain age. Using administrative data on the universe of Austrian private-sector employees, the results of difference-in-difference type regressions suggest a substantial and statistically significant decline in disability enrollment of 5-5.7 percentage points and a modest increase in employment of 1.4 to 2.7 percentage points. On the other hand, the policy change had important spillover effects into the unemployment and sickness insurance program. Specifically, the share of individuals receiving unemployment benefits increased roughly by 3 percentage points and the share receiving sickness insurance benefits by 0.6 percentage points.
We study the long-run effects of initial labor market conditions on wages for a large sample of male individuals entering the Austrian labor market between 1978 and 2000. We find a robust negative effect of unfavorable entry conditions on starting wages. This initial effect turns out to be quite persistent and even though wages do catch up later on, large effects on lifetime earnings result. We also show that initial labor market conditions have smaller and less persistent effects for blue-collar workers than for white-collar workers. We further show that some of the long-run adjustment takes place through changes in job-mobility and employment patterns as well as in job tenure. Finally, we find that adjustments at the aggregate level are key to explain wages' adjustment process in the longer run.
This paper identifies simple conditions for monotone comparative statics of a unique equilibrium in the Akerlof-Wilson model. Separate conditions apply to trade volume and price. Trade volume increases when supply becomes both stronger and more elastic. In contrast, price decreases when supply becomes both stronger and less elastic. An application to the interbank market suggests surprisingly specific measures to address elevated term rates and market breakdown.
Since information asymmetries have been identified as an important source of bank profits, it may seem that the establishment of information sharing will lead to lower investment in acquiring information. However, banks base their decisions on both hard and soft information, and it is only the former type of data that can be communicated credibly. We show that when hard information is shared, banks will invest more in soft, relationship-specific information. These will lead to more accurate lending decisions, favor small, informationally opaque borrowers, and increase welfare. Since relationship banking focuses on the usage of soft information, the model implies that investment in relationship banking will increase. We test our theory using a large sample of firm-level data from 24 countries.
We identify a consumer bias with regard to different sources of debt-financing. Less salient debt may generate psychological benefits. This should be weighed against the possible economic costs of a suboptimal capital structure, but low levels of financial literacy make it unlikely that all households perceive the full economic costs. As a result there is a bias in favour of less salient debt. In a market with limited scope for arbitrage this consumer bias is likely to generate inefficiencies. We examine such a market in both theory and practice. The predictions of our model are given strong support by market data.
When goods are substitutes, the Vickrey auction produces efficient, core outcomes that yield competitive seller revenues. In contrast, with complements, the Vickrey outcome, while efficient, is not necessarily in the core and revenue can be very low. Non-core outcomes may be perceived as unfair since there are bidders willing to pay more than the winners' payments. Moreover, non-core outcomes render the auction vulnerable to defections as the seller can attract better offers afterwards. To avoid instabilities of this type, Day and Raghavan (2007) and Day and Milgrom (2007) have suggested to adapt the Vickrey pricing rule. For a simple environmentnwith private information, we show that the resulting auction format yields lower than Vickrey revenues and inefficient outcomes that are on average further from thencore than Vickrey outcomes. More generally, we prove that the Vickrey auction is the unique core-selecting auction. Hence, when the Vickrey outcome is not in the core, no Bayesian incentive-compatible core-selecting auction exists. Our results further imply that the competitive equilibrium cannot be implemented when goodsnare not substitutes. Moreover, even with substitutes, the competitive equilibrium can only be implemented when it coincides with the Vickrey outcome.
Digital video recorder proliferation and new commercial audience metrics are making television networks’ revenues more sensitive to audience losses from advertising. There is currently limited understanding of how traditional advertising and product placement affectntelevision audiences. We estimate a random coefficients logit model of viewing demand for television programs, wherein time given to advertising and product placement plays a role akinnto the “price” of consuming a program. Our data include audience, advertising, and program characteristics from more than 10,000 network-hours of prime-time broadcast television from 2004 to 2007. We find that the median effect of a 10% rise in advertising time is a 15% reduction in audience size. We find evidence that creative strategy and product category are importantndeterminants of viewer response to advertising. When we control for program episode quality,nwe find that product placement time decreases viewer utility. In sum, our results imply thatnnetworks should give price discounts to those advertisers whose ads are most likely to retain viewers’ interest throughout the commercial break.
When agents are liquidity constrained, two options exist — sell assets or borrow. We compare the allocations arising in two economies: in one, agents can sell government bonds (outside bonds) and in the other they can borrow (issue inside bonds). All transactions are voluntary,nimplying no taxation or forced redemption of private debt. We show that any allocation in the economy with inside bonds can be replicated in the economy with outside bonds but that the converse is not true. However, the optimal policy in each economy makes the allocations equivalent.
We study the long-run relation between money, measured by inflation or interest rates, and unemployment. We first document in the data a positive relation between these variables at low frequencies. We then develop a framework where unemployment and money are both modeled using microfoundations based on search and bargaining theory, providing a unified theory for analyzing labor and goods markets. The calibrated model shows that money can account for a sizable fraction of trends in unemployment. We argue it matters, qualitativelynand quantitatively, whether one uses monetary theory based on search and bargaining, or an alternative ad hoc specification.
