infonet-economy

We model income redistribution with dynamic distortions as determined by rational voting without commitment among individuals of different types and income realizations. We find that redistribution is too persistent relative to that chosen by a planner with commitment. The difference is larger, the lower is the political influence of young agents, the lower is the altruistic concern for future generations, and the lower is risk-aversion. Furthermore, there tends to be too much redistribution in the political equilibrium. Finally, smooth preference aggregation, as under probabilistic voting, produces less persistence and does not admit multiple equilibria, which occur under majority-voting aggregation.

We develop a positive theory of the adoption of child labor laws. Workers who compete with children in the labor market support a child labor ban, unless their own working children provide a large fraction of family income. Fertility decisions lock agents into specific political preferences, and multiple steady states can arise. The introduction of child labor laws can be triggered by skill-biased technological change, which induces parents to choose smaller families. The theory can account for the observation that, in Britain, regulations were first introduced after a period of rising wage inequality, and coincided with rapid fertility decline.

This paper derives a tax-adjusted discount rate formula with a constant proportion leverage policy, investor taxes, and risky debt. The result depends on an assumption about the treatment of taxlosses in default. We identify the assumption that justiftes the textbook approach of discounting interest tax shields at the cost of debt. We contrast this with an alternative assumption that leads to the Sick (1990) result that these should be discounted at the riskless rate. These two approachesrepresent polar cases. Each generates its results by using a different simplifying assumption, and we explain what determines the correct treatment in practice. We also discuss implementation of the valuation procedure using the capital asset pricing model.

hort-run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially
reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules), distributing their wealth between
assets in fixed proportions. Our main goal is to identify globally evolutionarily stable strategies, allowing an
investor to “survive,” i.e., to accumulate in the long run a positive share of market wealth, regardless of the
initial state of the market. It is shown that there is a unique portfolio rule with this property—an analogue
of the famous Kelly rule of “betting your beliefs.” A game theoretic interpretation of this result is given.

ENGLISH: Conventional wisdom views demographic change as a set of exogenous shocks impinging on social security, with the economy treated as a closed system. This contribution argues that demographics is nothing but the aggregate of individual decisions, which are influenced by social security. This claim is supported by both theoretical argument and empirical evidence with regard to decisions over the life cycle, ranging from educational effort, marriage, number of children, divorce, retirement, and effort to extend one's life. Distinguishing the effects of contributions and benefits of social security, these feedback relationships are shown to in the main hamper employment and growth, thus undermining the financial viability of today's social security schemes, with increasing openness of the economy (`globalization') exacerbating problems.

DEUTSCH: Demographischer Wandel wird üblicherweise als ein exogener Schock auf die Sozialversicherung einer geschlossenen Volkswirtschaft aufgefasst. Der vorliegende Aufsatz wählt demgegenüber eine andere Sichtweise: Er fasst demographische Entwicklung als Ergebnis individueller Optimierungsentscheidungen auf, die von der Sozialversicherung einer Volkswirtschaft beeinflusst werden. Diese Behauptung wird durch theoretische und empirische Evidenz bezüglich des gesamten Lebenszyklus bestätigt – von der Ausbildung, über die Heirat, die Anzahl der Kinder, eine mögliche Scheidung, den Übergang in den Ruhestand und schliesslich den Versuch, ein langes Leben zu erreichen. Dabei wird durchweg zwischen den Beiträgen und den Leistungen unterschieden und gezeigt, wie diese beiden Aspekte der Sozialversicherung Beschäftigung und Wachstum beeinträchtigen können. Diese Effekte gefährden das Gleichgewicht der heutigen Sozialversicherung, wobei die Globalisierung die Gefährdung noch erhöht.

We analyze the evolution of cultural traits when parents purposefully invest resources in order to socialize their children to the cultural variants that maximize child lifetime utility. We assume that children are not passive in their adoption of traits from peers. Instead they are guided by an evaluation of the merit of variants. We show that such evaluation is likely to render this process of "oblique transmission" biased. We then show that when transmission of traits from society is biased or frequency dependent, cultural diversity is sustainable even when all parents strive to transmit the same trait. We also show that demand for cultural pluralism on the part of parent does not guarantee cultural diversity.

In Germany, competitive franchising is increasingly being used to procure passenger railway services that were previously provided by a state monopolist. This paper analyzes 77 tenders that differ with respect to network size, service frequency, contract duration and the proximity to other lines that are already run by competitors of DB Regio, a subsidiary of the successor of the former state monopolist. Our analysis shows that competitors are more likely to win small networks and more recent auctions. Other controls such as contract duration and the adjacency to other lines run by entrants are insignificant.

In this paper, we introduce the fairness approach to efficiency wages into a standard model of international fragmentation. This gives us a theoretical framework in which wage inequality and unemployment rates are co-determined and therefore the public concern can be addressed that international fragmentation and outsourcing to low wage countries lead to domestic job-losses. We
develop a novel diagrammatic tool to illustrate the main labour market effects of international fragmentation. We also explore how preferences for fair wages and the size of unemployment benefits govern the employment effects of outsourcing and critically assess the role of political intervention that aims to reduce unemployment benefits under internationally fragmented production.

This paper formulates an empirical model to estimate the impact of endogenous new regional trade agreement (RTA) membership on trade structure. The likelihood of new RTA membership is influenced by economic fundamentals such as country size, factor endowments, and trade and investment costs. In a sample of country-pairs covering mainly the OECD economies we find a particularly strong effect of endogenous RTAs on intra-industry trade in a difference-in-difference analysis based on matching techniques. The associated trade volume effects are similar to the ones found in previous research on the effects of endogenous RTAs. Overall, this indicates that RTA membership might reduce inter-industry trade not only in relative but also in absolute terms and that the trade volume effect is due to the associated growth in trade within industries.

In the television show Deal or No Deal a contestant is endowed with a sealed box, which potentially contains a large monetary prize. In the course of the show the contestant learns more information about the distribution of possible monetary prizes inside her box. Consider two groups of contestants, who learned that the chances of their boxes containing a large prize are 20% and 80% correspondingly. Contestants in both groups receive qualitatively similar price offers for selling the content of their boxes. If contestants are less risk averse when facing unlikely gains, the price offer is likely to be more frequently rejected in the first group than in the second group. However, the fraction of rejections is virtually identical across two groups. Thus, contestants appear to have identical risk attitudes over (large) gains of low and high probability.