Publications

The Eurozone crisis: a consensus view of the causes and a few possible solutions

Closing the gender gap in education: what is the state of gaps in labour force participation for women, wives and mothers?

Description: 

The educational gender gap has closed or reversed in many countries. But what of gendered labour market inequalities? Using micro-level census data for some 40 countries, the authors examine the labour force participation gap between men and women, the “marriage gap” between married and single women’s participation, and the “motherhood gap” between mothers’ and nonmothers’ participation. They find significant heterogeneity among countries in terms of the size of these gaps, the speed at which they are changing, and the relationships between them and the educational gap. But counterfactual regression analysis shows that the labour force participation gap remains largely unexplained by the other gaps.

Does public sector control reduce variance in school quality?

Description: 

Does the government control of school systems facilitate equality in school quality? Whether centralized or localized control produces more equality depends not only on what ‘could’ happen in principle, but also on what does happen in practice. We use the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) database to examine the association between school sector and the variance in school fixed effects. We find, on average, the same inequality in adjusted learning achievement across the private and public schools. However, in some countries, such as Denmark, there is more equality across the public sector schools, while in others, such as Mexico, there is more equality across the private schools. Among the 18 non-OECD countries, the standard deviation across schools in adjusted quality is, on average, 36% higher in government schools. Our findings suggest that top-down educational systems in weak states can be lose-lose relative to localized systems relying on bottom-up control, producing both worse average performance and higher inequality.

The rule of law without the rule of lawyers? Why investment arbitrators are from mars, trade panelist are from Venus

Institutions, corporate governance and capital flows

Description: 

Countries with weaker domestic investor protection hold less diversified international portfolios. An equilibrium business cycle model of North-South capital flow with corporate governance frictions between outside investors and corporate insiders explains this phenomenon through two channels. First,weak governance leads to concentrated ownership in the South because international diversification by insiders is penalized by lower stock market valuation. This reduces the float portfolio, or the supply of South assets. Second, weak governance tilts the demand of South outside investors towards domestic assets to hedge labor income risk. This is due to a higher share of labor in income, which increases labor income risk. In addition, the dynamics of investment under insider control leads relative dividend and labor income to be more negatively correlated in the South, making domestic assets a better hedge against local labor income risk. I find that the insider ownership and hedging channels are responsible for at least 29% and 11%, respectively, of the cross-country variation in international diversification. Thus, weak institutions lower international diversification primarily through concentrated ownership of firms, with outsider hedging also playing a quantitatively significant role.

Institutions, mobilization and rebellion in post-colonial societies

Description: 

We revisit the simultaneous equations model of rebellion, mobilization, grievances and repression proposed by Gurr and Moore (1997). Our main contribution is to clarify and improve on the underlying identification strategy and to emphasize the role played by the institutional environment. Instrumental variables estimates for post-colonial societies reveal that the strength of the state, as proxied empirically by an index of bureaucratic quality, exerts a strong preventive effect on rebellion. On the other hand, working institutions also influence the likelihood of rebellion indirectly, through mobilization. As such, the total net effect of state capacity on rebellion is ambiguous.

WTO 2.0: governance of 21st century trade

Description: 

The cross-border flows of goods, investment, services, know-how and people associated with international production networks–call it ‘supply-chain trade’ for short–has transformed the world. The WTO has not kept pace. This paper argues that adapting world trade governance to the realities of supply-chain trade will require a new organization–a WTO 2.0 as it were. Reasoning on the optimal nature of the new organization is based on the nature of supply-chain trade, the nature of the disciplines that underpin it, and the nature of the gains from cooperation.

The impact of three Mexican nutritional programs: the case of Dif-Puebla

Description: 

This paper presents an impact evaluation of three nutritional programs implemented in Puebla, Mexico, run by SEDIF, a social assistance institution. The present study uses both a propensity score matching and weighting in order to balance the treatment and the control groups in terms of observable characteristics, and to estimate, later on, the causal effect of the programs on different areas: food support, food orientation, education, and health. This investigation adds strong empirical evidence about the beneficial effects of nutritional programs on growth indicators (i.e. on anthropometric variables). In addition, it provides some evidence about the favorable impact of this kind of programs on food orientation outcomes, such as eating habit changes or diet diversity, variety, and quality. However, this study unveils only marginal effects on food security and detrimental effects on educational outcomes(specifically on student's marks). Finally, it does not provide conclusive effects on health.

Masked development: exploring the hidden benefits of the Zapatista conflict

Description: 

In 1994, the Zapatistas took up arms claiming for indigenous people rights in Chiapas, Mexico. After 12 days of civil war, the national government called for dialogue. Nevertheless, since then, it has deployed a "low intensity war" over the self-declared Zapatista Autonomous Communities. At the same time, the Zapatistas started to implement a new set of institutions, which have allegedly enhanced their socio-economic situation. The purpose of this study is, thus, to elucidate this ambiguous theoretical effect on the wellbeing of the communities under harassment. This paper generates a unique dataset, linking socio-economic variables from the Mexican Census with different measures of conflict intensity at the locality level, based on geo-coded influence areas from the military and police positions disseminated throughout Chiapas. The present investigation controls for the endogeneity in the relationship between conflict and the socio-economic performance, instrumenting the former by the distance from each locality to a strategic military spot defined by the Zapatista Army for its uprising in 1994 on the natural boundary of the Lacandon Jungle. The results, robust to different specifications and conflict intensity definitions, imply that the impact of the Zapatista institutions has surpassed the negative effect of the civil strive, suggesting that: i) bottom-up policies carried out by grass-root organizations, even in times of conflict, might represent an appropriate path for endogenous socio-economic development; and ii) the Mexican government should recognize the Zapatista autonomy and its right for self-determination.

What drives financial inclusion at the bottom of pyramid?: empirical evidence from microfinance panel data

Description: 

Microfinance has played a key role in including the poor in financial markets. This paper uses microfinance data to approximate financial inclusion in the poorer segments of the population and proposes a quantile regression approach to study the development of microfinance markets. Our approach accounts for the dynamic and heterogeneous impacts that key drivers may have across different stages of market development. It also allows us to go beyond correlations and gets us closer to identifying causal relationships. Our key findings indicate that: i)microfinance markets are more responsive to the needs of the bottom of the pyramid than to potential growth opportunities ii) Enabling institutions that provide credit information become increasingly important with higher market complexity iii) Formal financial development is a complement of microfinance development iv) Technologies can help to overcome market entry barriers, and to enable a higher inclusion in markets with a high degree of complexity. Our results could help policymakers and investors better understand and influence financial inclusion at the bottom of the pyramid across different stages of market development.

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