I address David Albouy's (2006) critique of the data constructed by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson (2001). The contribution of this paper is to instrument for settler mortality rates that are collected from historical sources - and that may be measured with error - with a geographic model of the determinants of disease. I first establish that my instruments are significant predictors of mortality and are otherwise excludable to institutions. Among other things, the excludability is established by a falsification exercise, in which I document that the geographic potential for mortality strongly affected institutions in former colonies, yet it had no effect on institutions in the rest of the world. This differential effect settler mortality had on development can only be rationalized by the early institution building hypothesis that Acemoglu et al. argue for. I next repeat the analysis of Acemoglu et al. instrumenting for the historical mortality rate with its geographic projection. The instrumented mortality rate is a highly significant predictor of institutional quality. Moreover, this result is true when instrumenting for either the original data or the revised mortality series of Albouy. This result is also true when accounting for the population that the historical data was sampled from. Turning to the instrumental variable estimations, I show that also the relation between institutions and income is highly significant and that the associated importance of institutions for international income differences is substantial. Again this finding is true when using either of the two historical series and also when accounting for the population that the historical data was sampled from. I thus conclude that the empirical results presented in Acemoglu et al. indeed reflect their early institution building hypothesis rather than measurement error.
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm to estimate the term structure of interest rates. It is obtained from a constrained optimization, where the objective is to minimize the integral of squared first derivatives of the instantaneous forward interest rate subject to the condition that the estimated bond prices lie within the range of observed bid and ask prices. We use a finite series of ordinary Laguerre polynomials to approximate the unknown function of the instantaneous forward interest rate. The objective function can be written explicitly as a quadratic form of the Laguerre constants and the nonlinear constraints can be obtained from a recurrence relationship. The estimation error is less than one basis point, given a sufficient number of bonds.
We examine the impact of banking sector reforms on interest rates using bank-level data from Kyrgyzstan for 1998-2005. We find that increased confidence in the banking sector has contributed significantly to lowering interest rate levels, while the impact of lower intermediation costs, credit risk, and capital costs are negligible. Our results further suggest that the liberalization of the Kyrgyz financial sector has reduced both deposit and lending rates. Finally, we find that despite considerable restructuring, the Kyrgyz banking sector has not become more competitive. As a consequence, banks' interest rates have not fully responded to lower market rates following macroeconomic stabilization.
Prospect theory has been the focus of increasing attention in many Fields of economics. However, it has scarcely been addressed in macro-economic growth models - neither on theoretical nor on empirical grounds. In this paper we use prospect theory in a stochastic optimal growth model. Thereafter, the focus lies on linking the Eulerequation obtained from a prospect theory growth model of this kind to real macroeconomic data. We will use Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation to test the implications of such a non-linear prospect utility Euler equation. Our results indicate that loss aversion can be traced in aggregate macroeconomic time series.
This paper examines the usefulness of considering monetary aggregates when assessing monetary policy stance, and contrasts monetary analysis to the current mainstream monetary policy analysis. Monetary developments, unlike interest rate stance measures, are shown to provide quantitative information on subsequent price levels. Moreover, ignoring money and focusing on interest rates and real activity measures neglects crucial information as short-term velocity movements are fully part of the monetary policy transmission process. The analysis also sheds light on the recent change in inflation volatility and persistence as well as on the Phillips curve flattening. The empirical analysis is based on US data since the 1960s as well as euro area and Swiss data since the 1970s.
We analyze regulatory capital requirements where the amount of required capital depends on the level of risk reported by the banks. It is shown that if the supervisors have a limited ability to identify or to sanction dishonest banks, an additional risk-independent leverage ration restriction may be necessary to induce truthful risk reporting. The leverage ration helps to offset the banks' potential capital savings of understating their risks by (i) reducing banks' put option value of limited ex ante, and by (ii) increasing the banks' net worth, which in turn enhances the supervisors' ability to sanction banks ex post.
This paper sheds light on a puzzling pattern in foreign exchange markets: Domestic currencies appreciate (depreciate) systematically during foreign (domestic) working hours. These time-of-day patterns are statistically and economically highly significant. They pervasively persist across many years, even after accounting for calendar effects. This phenomenon is difficult to reconcile with the random walk and market efficiency hypothesis. Microstructural and behavioural explanations suggest that the main raison d'etre is a domestic currency bias coupled with market segmentation. The prevalence of domestic (foreign) traders demanding the counterpart currency during domestic (foreign) working hours implies a cyclical net positive (negative) imbalance in dealers' inventory. In aggregate, this turns into sell-price (buy-price) pressure on the domestic currency during domestic (foreign) working hours.
This paper examines whether the U.S. Federal Reserve has adjusted high-powered money supply in response to macroeconomic indicators. Applying ex-post and real-time data for the postwar period, we provide evidence that nonborrowed reserves responded to expected inflation and the output-gap. While the output-gap feedback has always been negative, the response of money supply to changes in inflation varies considerably across time. The inflation feedback is negative in the post-1979 period and positive, albeit smaller than one, in the pre-1979 period. Applying a standard macroeconomic model, these roperties are shown to be consistent with a welfare maximizing policy, and to ensure equilibrium determinacy. Viewed through the money supply lens, the Fed has thus never allowed for endogenous fluctuations, which contrasts conclusions drawn from federal funds rate analyses.
We ask whether FX dealers from Kyrgyzstan, a low income country, have similar perceptions to FX dealers from other international financial centers. Perceptions of Kyrgyz FX dealers in the interbank market are tested using detailed survey data against survey information from five major financial centers. The survey evidence finds that the FX dealers' responses from the Kyrgyz interbank market differ from those from other international financial centers. Stark differences arise in the perceptions concerning the effectiveness of central bank interventions and the influence of speculation.
I analyze the price discovery, liquidity provision, and transaction-cost components driven by the real-time firm-specific news at the Paris Bourse. I find that the news impact depends on which type of news bulletin is released. Only news items causing extreme price disruptions such as earnings announcements enlarge spreads and information asymmetry risk. In contrast, the greater part of real-time firm-specific news releases is a magnet for liquidity and trading. This research provides insights into the market quality of limit-order book markets in which liquidity provision dynamically adapts to market conditions and information events. Limit order traders sustain liquidity even when facing extreme news impacts.
