Economic research

Payouts in Switzerland: Explaining Developments in Annuitization

Description: 

Switzerland is one of the few countries with long-term experience on the payout decisions made by retirees in fully-funded pension plans. Switzerland is also atypical in its unusually high annuitization rates: A majority of retirees covered by mandatory occupational pension plans choose an annuity. This paper will shed light on this extraordinary aspect. It revisits the historical role of occupational pension plans in the provision of old age income, and examines the role of regulation in the payout phase of the scheme. Recent developments in both market conditions and regulations are used to assess the impact of certain determinants of the annuitization decision, such as money's worth ratios (MWR), means-tested benefits and behavioral factors.

Assignment Mechanisms, Selection Criteria, and the Effectiveness of Training Programmes

Description: 

We analyse the effectiveness of vocational training under two different assignment mechanisms. The direct assignment mechanism is characterised by the strong influence of caseworkers who can directly assign the unemployed to vocational training courses. Under the voucher assignment mechanism unemployed have more freedom to choose among different courses and training providers. Simultaneously with the assignment mechanism the selection criteria for potential training participants is changed. Unemployed awarded with a voucher are supposed to have higher employment probabilities after training than unemployed directly assigned to a training programme. We find that the voucher assignment system reduces the returns to vocational training over the short term. These negative effects fade and eventually, after seven years, become positive. The stricter selection rules appear to be poorly constructed and to reduce the effectiveness of training.

Employment and Earnings Effects of Awarding Training Vouchers in Germany

Description: 

Participation in intensive training programs for the unemployed in Germany is allocated by awarding training vouchers. Using rich administrative data for all vouchers and actual program participation,
the authors provide first estimates of the short-run and long-run employment and earnings effects of receiving a training voucher award based on a selection-on-observables assumption. The results imply that, after the award, voucher recipients experience long periods of lower labor market success compared to had they not received training vouchers. Small positive employment effects and no gains in earnings were observed four to seven years after the receipt of the voucher award. In addition, the findings suggest stronger positive effects both for all low-skilled individuals who were awarded and redeemed a voucher and for low-skilled and medium skilled individuals who chose to take degree courses than for higher-skilled recipients.

Wachstum durch Innovation in der Retail-Supply Chain : Absatzorientierte Warenverfügbarkeit

Description: 

Ausgehend von aktuellen Untersuchungsergebnissen zu den Gründen für Regallücken und Reaktionsmustern von Konsumenten auf Regallücken widmet sich dieser Beitrag der Frage, wie Händler und Konsumgüterhersteller Umsatz und Loyalität durch absatzorientierte Verfügbarkeitskonzepte steigern können

Nie mehr leere Einkaufskörbe (Begone, empty shopping baskets)

Description: 

Beinahe stündlich schwanken in der Lebensmittelbranche die
Bedürfnisse und damit auch das Einkaufsverhalten der Kunden.
Welchen Nutzen der Einzelhandel daraus ziehen kann,
erforscht gerade der Lehrstuhl für Logistikmanagement an der
Universität St. Gallen

L'évolution de la demande, décodée (Uncovering retail sales patterns)

Description: 

Assurer la «bonne» disponibilité des produits en rayon demeure un des grands défis de la logistique dans Je commerce de détail. Les ruptures de stocks observées tous les jours sont l pour Je démontrer. Les produits manquants dans les pics de demande irritent les clients et réduisent Je chiffre d'affaires

Das Geheimnis des Nachfrageverlaufs (Unravelling the mystery of intraday demand)

Description: 

Der Zeitpunkt, wann Kunden welche Warengruppen nachfragen, ist für das Supply Chain Management entscheidend. Der Händler Seven-Eleven in Japan kennt die Nachfragespitzen und richtet die Logistik danach - mit Erfolg

Fixed-Income Hedge-Funds-Strategien in Bondportfolios: Eine Anwendung des Copula-Opinion-Pooling-Ansatzes

Description: 

Diese Studie untersucht mit Hilfe des Copula-Opinion-Pooling-Ansatzes (COP-Ansatz) von Meucci (2006a, 2006b), ob es a priori eine Rechtfertigung für den Einbezug von Fixed-Income Hedge-Funds-Strategien in ein diversifiziertes Bondportfolio gibt. Der COP-Ansatz stellt eine Weiterentwicklung der Black / Littermann-Methode dar mit dem Vorteil, dass die Anlagerenditen nicht normalverteilt sein müssen und auch nicht-lineare Zusammenhänge der Renditen erfasst werden können. Ausgangspunkt sind die subjektiven Renditeerwartungen für ein Anlageuniversum verschiedener Staatsanleihen und Bondindices in drei Szenarien, die mit den Renditen von drei Fixed-Income Hedge-Funds-Strategien (Convertible Arbitrage, Fixed-Income Arbitrage und Distressed Securities) im Copula-Opinion-Pooling-Ansatz mittels einer Monte-Carlo-Simulation der gemeinsamen Verteilung verbunden werden. Die optimalen Portfolioallokationen können dann unter Berücksichtigung von Shortfall-Restriktionen ermittelt werden. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass der optimale Anteil von Fixed-Income Hedge-Funds-Strategien in Bondportfolios in Abhängigkeit vom erwarteten Marktszenario und der Risikotoleranz des Anlegers sehr stark zwischen 0% und 85% schwankt.

Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Economic Perceptions and Expectations: The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment

Description: 

Prominent economic theories have emphasized the role of commonly held perceptions and expectations for determining macroeconomic outcomes. A key empirical question is how such collectively held beliefs are formed. We use the FIFA World Cup 2006 as a natural experiment. We provide direct evidence that seemingly irrelevant events (the outcomes of soccer matches) can systematically affect individual perceptions about economic prospects, both on a personal and economy-wide level.

Representative Trust and Reciprocity : Prevalence and Determinants

Description: 

This paper provides evidence about the determinants of trust and reciprocal inclinations, that is, a tendency for people to respond in kind to hostile or kind actions, in a representative setting. We investigate the prevalence of reciprocity in the population, the correlation between trust and positive and negative reciprocal inclinations within person, the individual determinants of reciprocity, and the relationship with psychological measures of personality. We find that most people state reciprocal inclinations, in particular in terms of positive reciprocity, as well as substantial heterogeneity in the degree of trust and reciprocity. Trust and positive reciprocity are only weakly correlated, while trust and negative reciprocity exhibit a negative correlation. In terms of determinants, being female and increasing age are associated with stronger positive and weaker negative reciprocal tendencies. Taller people are more positively reciprocal, but height has no impact on negative reciprocity. Psychological traits also affect trust and reciprocity.

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