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Decoding Financial Networks: Hidden Dangers and Effective Policies

Two changes have ushered in a new era of analyzing the complex and interdependent world surrounding us. One is related to the increased influx of data, furnishing the raw material for this revolution that is now starting to impact economic thinking. The second change is due to a subtler reason: a paradigm shift in the analysis of complex systems.

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English / 01/01/2016

Financial fragility and distress propagation in a network of regions

Building on previous works on business fluctuations, we model the propagation of financial distress in a network of regions, each populated by heterogeneous interacting firms and banks. In order to diversify risk, firm sell goods outside their own region and borrow from banks located there. However, this results in ties across regions which propagate financial distress across...

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English / 01/01/2016

DebtRank and the network of leverage

The interconnectedness of the financial system is one of the main factors contributing to systemic risk. The financial crisis has shown how the network of intrafinancial exposures may, in times of systemic distress, amplify initially small shocks. In this work, the authors build on the DebtRank methodology by introducing the notion of a network of leverage and propose a two-round...

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English / 01/01/2016

Complexity theory and financial regulation

Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial markets. Concepts, such as tipping points, networks, contagion, feedback, and resilience...

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English / 01/01/2016

The financial system as a nexus of interconnected networks

In this Chapter, we describe the phenomenology of multilevel financial networks. Network analysis represents a useful tool for the analysis of financial systems, allowing, in particular, for a better understanding of the mechanics of systemic distress. However, the level of complexity reached by the financial system, coupled with the linkages arising to and from other economic...

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English / 01/01/2016

Sorry, we're closed: Loan conditions when bank branches close and firms transfer to another bank

We study loan conditions when bank branches close and firms subsequently transfer to a branch of another bank in the vicinity. Such transfer loans allow us for the first time to observe the conditions granted when banks pool-price new applicants. Consistent with recent theoretical work on hold up in bank-firm relationships we find that transfer loans do not receive the discount in...

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English / 01/01/2016

Valuations of options on discretely sampled variance: A general analytic approximation

The values of options on realized variance are significantly impacted by the discrete sampling of realized variance and may be substantially higher than the values of options on continuously sampled variance (or, quadratic variation). Under arbitrary stochastic volatility dynamics, we analyze the discretization effect and obtain a simple analytical correction term to be applied to...

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English / 01/01/2016

Shocks abroad, pain at home? Bank-firm level evidence on financial contagion during the recent financial crisis

We study the international transmission of shocks from the banking to the real sector during the global financial crisis. For identification, we use matched bank-firm level data, including many small and medium-sized firms, in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. We find that internationally-borrowing domestic and foreign-owned banks contract their credit more during the crisis than...

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English / 01/01/2016

Collateral frameworks: The open secret of central banks

Central bank collateral frameworks are an often overlooked feature of monetary policy that play a key role in the monetary and financial system. Readers will discover how central banks conduct and implement monetary policy beyond merely setting interest rates, and develop their understanding as to how collateral policies may affect financial markets, financial stability, and the real...

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English / 01/01/2016

The dynamics of insurance prices

We develop a continuous-time general-equilibrium model to rationalise the dynamics of insurance prices in a competitive insurance market with financial frictions. Insurance companies choose underwriting and financing policies to maximise shareholder value. The equilibrium price dynamics are explicit, which allows simple numerical simulations and generates testable implications. In...

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English / 01/01/2016

A non-stationary model of dividend distribution in a stochastic interest-rate setting

In this paper the solutions to several variants of the so-called dividend-distribution problem in a multi-dimensional, diffusion setting are studied. In a nutshell, the manager of a firm must balance the retention of earnings (so as to ward off bankruptcy and earn interest) and the distribution of dividends (so as to please the shareholders). A dynamic-programming approach is used,...

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English / 01/01/2016

The shadow costs of repos and bank liability structure

Making use of a structural model that allows for optimal liquidity management, we study the role that repos play in a bank׳s financing structure. In our model the bank׳s assets consist of illiquid loans and liquid reserves and are financed by a combination of repos, long-term debt, deposits and equity. Repos are a cheap source of funding, but they are subject to an exogenous rollover...

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English / 01/01/2016

How time preferences differ: Evidence from 53 countries

We present results from the first large-scale international survey on time preference, conducted in 53 countries. All countries exhibit hyperbolic discounting patterns, i.e., the immediate future is discounted more than far future. We also observe higher heterogeneity for shorter time horizons, consistent with the pattern reviewed by Frederick, Loewenstein, and O’Donoghue (2002)....

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English / 01/01/2016

Baseline choice and performance implications for REDD

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) projects are being designed and implemented across tropical countries, intending to curb the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse gas emissions. An important aspect of REDD implementation is the baseline against which reductions are measured. The baseline estimates the business-as-usual emissions from...

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English / 01/01/2016

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