This paper performs specification analysis on the term structure of variance swap rates on the S&P 500 index and studies the optimal investment decision on the variance swaps and the stock index. The analysis identifies two stochastic variance risk factors, which govern the short and long end of the variance swap term structure variation, respectively. The highly negative estimate for the market price of variance risk makes it optimal for an investor to take short positions in a short-term variance swap contract, long positions in a long-term variance swap contract, and short positions in the stock index.
We introduce new quantile estimators with adaptive importance sampling. The adaptive estimators are based on weighted samples that are neither independent nor identically distributed. Using a new law of iterated logarithm for martingales, we prove the convergence of the adaptive quantile estimators for general distributions with nonunique quantiles, thereby extending the work of Feldman and Tucker. We illustrate the algorithm with an example from credit portfolio risk analysis.
DescriptionThe subprime crisis has shown that the sophisticated risk management models used by banks and insurance companies had serious flaws. Some people even suggest that these models are completely useless. Others claim that the crisis was just an unpredictable accident that was largely amplified by the lack of expertise and even naivety of many investors. This book takes the middle view. It shows that these models have been designed for "tranquil times", when financial markets behave smoothly and efficiently. However, we are living in more and more "turbulent times": large risks materialize much more often than predicted by "normal" models, financial models periodically go through bubbles and crashes. Moreover, financial risks result from the decisions of economic actors who can have incentives to take excessive risks, especially when their remunerations are ill designed. The book provides a clear account of the fundamental hypotheses underlying the most popular models of risk management and show that these hypotheses are flawed. However it shows that simple models can still be useful, provided they are well understood and used with caution.
We consider an infinite-horizon exchange economy with incomplete markets and collateral constraints. As in the two-period model of Geanakoplos and Zame (2002), households can default on their liabilities at any time, and financial securities are only traded if the promises associated with these securities are backed by collateral. We examine an economy with a single perishable consumption good, where the only collateral available consists of productive assets. In this model, competitive equilibria always exist and we show that, under the assumption that all exogenous variables follow a Markov chain, there also exist stationary equilibria. These equilibria can be characterized by a mapping from the exogenous shock and the current distribution of financial wealth to prices and portfolio choices. We develop an algorithm to approximate this mapping numerically and discuss ways to implement the algorithm in practice. A computational example demonstrates the performance of the algorithm and shows some quantitative features of equilibria in a model with collateral and default.
Das Swiss Banking Institute der Universität Zürich präsentiert die Neuauflage der bereits in den Jahren 2000, 2002, 2004 und 2006 durchgeführten Studie "Aktienbesitz in der Schweiz". Die Studie weist den Anteil der direkten und indirekten Aktionäre in der Schweiz nach und zeichnet ein detailliertes Bild des Anlageverhaltens privater Haushalte.
Das Institut für schweizerisches Bankwesen der Universität Zürich hat in einer repräsentativen Studie die Anlegerperspektive und das Anlegerverhalten im Schweizer Markt für Strukturierte Produkte untersucht (Befragung im Mai/Juni 2008). Insbesondere interessierten dabei der anlegerseitige Wissensstand sowie die Bekanntheit und die Nutzung Strukturierter Produkte. Zudem sollen Informationen über die Kriterien, die Anleger bei ihrer Entscheidung über einen Kauf dieser Produkte berücksichtigen, gewonnen werden. Schliesslich wird aufgezeigt, wie sich Anleger im Kontext genereller Wirtschaftsfragen spezifisch über Strukturierte Produkte informieren und wie sie ihre Transaktionen mit diesen Produkten abwickeln.
Die Studie orientiert sich dabei an der Methodik der Equity Ownership Studie, die vom ISB bereits seit dem Jahr 2000 durchgeführt wird
Der vorliegende Beitrag entstand im Wortlaut während des Jahres 2004. Auslöser waren durch den Verfasser kri- tisch verfolgte Entwicklungen jener Zeit des Wiederauf- schwungs nach dem Platzen der Internet-Blase. Der Autor sah schliesslich aus verschiedenen Gründen von einer Veröffentlichung des Aufsatzes ab. Vor dem Hinter- grund der aktuellen Finanzkrise mögen die damals for- mulierten, hier nur leicht gekürzt publizierten Gedan- ken von nicht unerheblichem Interesse sein.
