The enormous Nazi voting literature rarely builds on modern statistical or economic research. By adding these approaches, we find that the most widely accepted existing theories of this era cannot distinguish the Weimar elections from almost any others in any country. Via a retrospective voting account, we show that voters most hurt by the depression, and most likely to oppose the government, fall into separate groups with divergent interests. This explains why some turned to the Nazis and others turned away. The consequences of Hitler’s election were extraordinary, but the voting behavior that led to it was not.
The objective of this thesis is to consider different risk
management issues in relation to operational risk with a special emphasis on terrorism risk. Our motivation to implement research in this particularly challenging area of risk management is due to the increasing magnitude of operational losses over the last decade and their negative effect on financial industry. This thesis contributes
to the existing research on operational risk in several ways. First, our research suggests a model that addresses the issue of dependence between operational losses and how it can be accounted for in the value of capital charge for operational risk. Second, we provide a better understanding of the impact of a particular type of operational risk event, specifically of terrorist attacks . As evidenced by the 9/11 attacks, this risk can be catastrophic and can have negative consequences on the behavior of financial markets. We implement empirical analysis of the impact of terrorist attacks on stock, bond and commodity markets and suggest possible diversification strategies of terrorism risk. Finally, we contribute to the area of operational risk transfer, by developing a model for pricing of a multiple-event coupon paying CAT bond. The bond that we consider covers exposure to catastrophic risk such as natural and man-made disasters, including terrorist events.
Der Aktienkurs der UBS ist auf historisch tiefem Niveau und Fragen werden laut, ob die Bank denn überleben kann. Ist ein Konkurs überhaupt möglich und was würde dieser für die Schweiz bedeuten? Professor Martin Janssen nimmt Stellung zu möglichen Szenarien.
Der Dimension der Märkte und der Grösse der Institutionen nicht angemessene Strukturen, unvollständige Informationen über Positionen und Risiken sowie nicht adäquate Anreizstrukturen haben in eine tiefe Finanzkrise geführt. Die Rückkehr zur Normalität könnte Jahre dauern und wird teuer zu stehen kommen.
Der Finanzprofessor Martin Janssen schliesst nicht aus, dass die grösste Schweizer Bank noch mehr Kapital benötigt. Konsequenzen aber habe die Finanzkrise vor allem für unser Vorsorgesystem. Die Pensionskassen seien eine Zeitbombe.
Am 1. Januar treten die neuen Anlagerichtlinien für Schweizer Vorsorgeeinrichtungen in Kraft. Mit ihnen dürfte die Professionalisierung der zweiten Säule weiter vorangetrieben werden. Der Anpassungsbedarf bei den Vorsorgewerken ist unterschiedlich.
