Deux conceptions du rôle de la comptabilité générale existent actuellement: la conception contractuelle, selon laquelle l'information comptable sert principalement au contrôle des contrats externes et internes à l'entreprise; et la conception prédictive aux investisseurs de formuler leur anticipations sur l'avenir de la firme. Après avoir étudié les exigences de ces deux approches, une analyse du système comptable français est effectuée, qui montre que celui-ci conserve une orientation essentiellement contractuelle, même si l'application du Plan Comptable de 1982 marque une évolution vers une meilleure prise en compte des besoins des investisseurs.
Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM) for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.
Knowledge about other people's preferences is essential for successful social interactions, but what exactly are the driving factors that determine how well we can predict the likes and dislikes of people around us? To investigate the accuracy of couples' preference predictions we outline and empirically test three hypotheses: The positive valence hypothesis predicts that predictions for likes are more accurate than for dislikes. The negative valence hypothesis predicts the opposite, namely that dislikes are predicted more accurately than dislikes. The base rate hypothesis predicts that preference knowledge critically depends on the base rates of likes and dislikes within a given domain. In a series of studies we show that predicting likes over dislikes has relatively little effect compared with base rates. That is, accuracy is greater for relatively rare events regardless of whether they are liked or disliked. Our findings further suggest that when predicting preferences, people seem to rely on a combination of general, stereotypical knowledge of common preferences on the one hand and specific, idiosyncratic knowledge of rare preferences on the other.
We investigate how accurate parents are at predicting their children's meal preferences and what cues best describe parents’ predictions. In Study 1, 30 parents predicted their children's school lunch choices from actual school menus. Parents’ prediction accuracy matched the stability of children's meal choices (assessed in a 4-month retest), implying that accuracy was as high as can be expected. Parents appeared to make their predictions by using specific knowledge about their child's likes and by projecting their own preferences. In Study 2, we asked 58 parents to predict their children's preferences for 30 randomly drawn school meals, and compared them to the children's actual preferences. Again, parents showed high prediction accuracy and predicted the lunches their children liked correctly more often than the disliked ones. Overall, parents’ accuracy in predicting their children's food preferences was as good as or better than found in previous preference prediction studies that used less ecologically relevant task domains.
Does problem gambling arise from an illusion that patterns exist where there are none? Our prior research suggested that “hot hand,” a tendency to perceive illusory streaks in sequences, may be a human universal, tied to an evolutionary history of foraging for clumpy resources. Like other evolved propensities, this tendency might be expressed more stongly in some people than others, leading them to see luck where others see only chance. If the desire to gamble is enhanced by illusory pattern detection, such individual differences could be predictive of gambling risk. While previous research has suggested a potential link between cognitive strategies and propensity to gamble, no prior study has directly measured gamblers' cognitive strategies using behavioral choice tasks, and linked them to risk taking or gambling propensities. Using a computerized sequential decision-making paradigm that directly measured subjects' predictions of sequences, we found evidence that subjects who have a greater tendency to gamble also have a higher tendency to perceive illusionary patterns, as measured by their preferences for a random slot machine over a negatively autocorrelated one. Casino gamblers played the random slot machine significantly more often even though a training phase and a history of outcomes were provided. Additionally, we found a marginally significant group difference between gamblers and matched community members in their slot-machine choice proportions. Performance on our behavioral choice task correlated with subjects' risk attitudes toward gambling and their frequency of play, as well as the selection of choice strategies in gambling activities.
To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers’ estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice—cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997). Using empirical data of risky choices collected for each individual at two time points, we compared the use of hierarchical versus independent, nonhierarchical Bayesian estimation techniques to assess two aspects of model generalizability: parameter stability (across time) and predictive accuracy. The relative performance of hierarchical versus independent estimation varied across the different measures of generalizability. The hierarchical approach improved parameter stability (in terms of a lower absolute discrepancy of parameter values across time) and predictive accuracy (in terms of deviance; i.e., likelihood). With respect to test–retest correlations and posterior predictive accuracy, however, the hierarchical approach did not outperform the independent approach. Further analyses suggested that this was due to strong correlations between some parameters within both models. Such intercorrelations make it difficult to identify and interpret single parameters and can induce high degrees of shrinkage in hierarchical models. Similar findings may also occur in the context of other cognitive models of choice.
The concept of entrepreneurial orientation (EO) is universally applicable, and many empirical studies report a positive relationship between EO and performance in different national contexts. Empirical research, however, scarcely addresses which country-level contingencies affect the EO–performance link. Building on two secondorder factors of societal culture—performance-based culture (PBC) and socially supportive culture (SSC)—the present study proposes and tests such a contingency framework. Using a data set of 1248 SMEs from seven national contexts, multilevel analyses show that PBC positively moderates the relationship between EO and performance, whereas SSC has no moderation effect.
We provide evidence that firms fail to properly adjust for risk in their valuation of investment projects, and that this behavior leads to value-destroying investment decisions. If managers tend to use a single discount rate within firms, we expect conglomerates to underinvest in relatively safe divisions, and to overinvest in risky ones. We measure division relative risk as the difference between the division market beta and a firm-wide beta. We establish a robust and significant positive relationship between division-level investment and division relative risk. Then, we measure the value loss due to this behavior in the context of acquisitions. When the bidder's beta is lower than that of the target, announcement returns are lower by 0.8% of the bidder's equity value.
