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Bank Funding, Securitization, and Loan Terms: Evidence from Foreign Currency Lending

We examine how bank funding structure and securitization activities affect the currency denomination of business loans. We analyze a unique data set that includes information on the requested and granted loan currency for 99,490 loans granted to 57,464 firms by a Bulgarian bank. Our findings document that foreign currency lending is at least partially driven by bank eagerness to…

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English / 01/10/2014

Non-Interest Income and Bank Performance

The optimum scope of bank activities is central to many proposals for banking system reform. For example, a core component of the Dodd-Frank Act (2010) and regulatory proposals in the UK and the EU has been the concept of “ring-fencing” – i.e., restricting banks’ activities to their core retail and wholesale financial intermediation functions. It is argued that limiting the scope of…

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English / 01/10/2014

Non-Core Banking, Performance, and Risk

One of the most dramatic trends in banking since 2000 has been the secular movement away from core banking and interest generating activities towards enhanced reliance on non-interest-generating activities that focus largely on fees and trading profits. This has changed the banking model from traditional asset formation, such as deposit taking and lending, towards a model built on…

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English / 01/10/2014

Do Newspaper Articles Predict Aggregate Stock Returns?

We analyze whether newspaper content can predict aggregate future stock returns. Our study is based on articles published in the Handelsblatt, a leading German Financial newspaper, from July 1989 to March 2011. We summarize newspaper content in a systematic way by constructing word-count indices for a large number of words. Wordcount indices are instantly available and therefore…

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English / 01/09/2014

Hysteresis in Potential Ourtput and Monetary Policy

We show that actively stabilizing economic activity plays a more prominent role in the conduct of monetary policy when potential output is subject to hysteresis. We augment a basic New Keynesian model by hysteresis in potential output and contrast simulation outcomes of this extended model to the standard model. We find that considering hysteresis allows for a more realistic…

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English / 01/09/2014

Target Capital Structure and Adjustment Speed in Asia

Studies on the capital structure of Asian corporations are rare, and most of those studies support different explanations of financing decisions compared to the ones accepted for the USA and Europe. We test relationships that are typical of the Tradeoff Theory and the Pecking Order Theory, and analyze the speed of adjustment toward target capital structures for 1239 companies with…

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English / 01/02/2014

Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?

In this paper, we show that large inflows into commodity investments, a recent phenomenon known as financialization, has changed the behavior and dependence structure between commodities and the general stock market. The common perception is that the increase in comovements is the result of distressed investors selling both assets during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We show that…

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English / 01/01/2014

Credit Booms and Busts in Emerging Markets: The Role of Bank Governance and Risk Management

This paper investigates to what extent risk management and corporate governance mitigate the involvement of banks in credit boom and bust cycles. Using a unique, hand-collected dataset on 156 banks from Central and Eastern Europe during 2005-2012, we assess whether banks with stronger risk management and corporate governance display more moderate credit growth in the pre-crisis…

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English / 01/01/2014

Deposit Withdrawals from Distressed Commercial Banks: The Importance of Switching Costs

We study retail deposit withdrawals from large European commercial banks which incurred substantial investment losses in the wake of the U.S. subprime crisis. We first show that the propensity of households to withdraw deposits increases with the magnitude of bank distress. This withdrawal risk is, however, substantially mitigated by client-level switching costs that arise from tight…

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English / 01/01/2014

Do Mutual Funds Ourtperform During Recessions? International (Counter-) Evidence

Glode (2011) shows, both theoretically and empirically, that U.S. equity mutual funds have a systematically better performance during periods of economic downturn and that investors are willing to pay higher fund fees for this recession insurance. In this paper, we test these hypotheses out-of-sample using international mutual fund data from 16 different countries. Surprisingly, we…

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English / 01/01/2014

The Real costs of Industry Contagion

In this paper I analyze whether the higher financing costs following the distress or bankruptcy of one firm affect the real investment decisions of non-distressed industry competitors. To achieve identification of the causal effect of contagion on investment, I use a difference-in-differences approach that compares within-firm changes in investment around the industry distress for…

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English / 01/01/2014

Trade credit use as firms approach default

Using a sample of firms matched with their suppliers, we study the use of trade credit as firms approach a default event. We show that, in the extensive margin, around one third of suppliers exit the relationship well ahead of default, but the rest continue the relationship. Relationships are more likely to continue when suppliers sell differentiated goods, are located close to their…

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English / 01/01/2014

Shareholder Voting and Merger Returns

Using a sample of 384 shareholder meetings, we investigate whether shareholder votes on mergers and acquisitions in both target and acquirer firms relate to the announcement day abnormal returns and whether the voting outcome has implications for the short- and long-run merger performance. We find that shareholder voting dissent is negatively related to both abnormal returns upon…

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English / 01/01/2014

Real Effects of Investement Banking Relationships: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

We investigate the damage to real-sector investment spending and corporate financing activities triggered by the failure of three major investment banks during the 2007-09 financial crisis. We find that corporations characterized by pre-crisis corporate investment banking relationships with troubled investment banks exhibit significantly lower post-crisis investment spending activity…

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English / 01/01/2014

Firm Structure in Banking and Finance: Is Broader Better?

Economies of scope in financial intermediation continue as a focal point in strategic and regulatory debates. In this paper, we summarize the theoretical research on the value of diversification in financial services firms, and survey the empirical research so far on the conglomerate discount in US and international financial services businesses. We also review research on the…

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English / 01/01/2014

Ambiguity and Reality

Model builders face ambiguity about the true data generating process. Consequently, they need to deal with ambiguity attitudes (inside uncertainty) and ambiguous financial reality (outside uncertainty) when developing and estimating financial models. We introduce a novel approach for systematically dealing with outside uncertainty in addition to inside uncertainty in a tractable way…

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English / 01/01/2014

Risk spillovers in international equity portfolios

We define risk spillover as the dependence of a given asset variance on the past covariances and variances of other assets. Building on this idea, we propose the use of a highly flexible and tractable model to forecast the volatility of an international equity portfolio. According to the risk management strategy proposed, portfolio risk is seen as a specific combination of daily…

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English / 01/12/2013

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