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Improving Investment Decisions with Simulated Experience

We apply a new and innovative approach to communicating risks associated with financial products that should support investors in making better investment decisions. In our experiments, participants are able to gain "simulated experience" by random sampling of a previously described return distribution. We find that simulated experience considerably improves participants’…

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English / 01/01/2015

An information system supporting cap and trade in organizations

We present a software system to create and implement internal markets in organizations that want to limit the CO2 emissions or the use of scarce resources by their employees. This system can be applied to domains such as business travel by distributing a limited number of permits for business travel-related CO2 emissions at the beginning of a period and then allowing the permits to…

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English / 01/01/2015

The economic impact of merger control legislation

We investigate the impact of legislative reforms in merger control legislation in nineteen industrial countries between 1987 and 2004. We find that strengthening merger control decreases the stock prices of non-financial firms, while increasing those of banks. Cross sectional regressions show that the discretion embedded in the supervisory control of bank mergers is a major…

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English / 01/01/2015

Differently unequal: Zooming-in on the distributional dimensions of the crisis in euro area countries

This paper discusses how income inequality developed during the current crisis in euro area countries, as well as the role played by each income source. Based on an extended definition of income – including additional components which do not appear in the standard Eurostat definitions – we complement the information provided by the Gini index and quantile ratios by computing an…

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English / 01/01/2015

Sovereign debt sustainability in advanced economies

We develop a measure of maximum sustainable government debt for advanced economies. How much investors are willing to lend to a country's government depends on how high a primary surplus they expect that government to generate, how fast they expect the country to grow, how volatile they expect that growth to be, and how much debt they expect the government will be able to raise…

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English / 01/01/2015

De la grande guerre à la crise permanente

Les marchés financiers et les grandes banques ont atteint une taille, une complexité et un degré d’opacité particulièrement inquiétants, qui leur permet d’accroître encore plus leur pouvoir. Au niveau international, les dirigeants élus, qu’ils soient de gauche ou de droite, n’appliquent le plus souvent qu’une seule et même politique économique, celle qui répond aux intérêts de l’…

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Français / 01/01/2015

Herding and Stochastic Volatility

In this paper we develop a one-factor non-affine stochastic volatility option pricing model where the dynamics of the underlying is endogenously determined from micro-foundations. The interaction and herding of the agents trading the underlying asset induce an amplification of the volatility of the asset over the volatility of the fundamentals. Although the model is non-affine, a…

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English / 01/01/2015

A General Closed Form Option Pricing Formula

A new method to retrieve the risk-neutral probability measure from observed option prices is developed and a closed form pricing formula for European options is obtained by employing a modified Gram-Charlier series expansion, known as the Gauss-Hermite expansion. This expansion converges for fat-tailed distributions commonly encountered in the study of financial returns. The…

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English / 01/01/2015

Impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment in China

We analyze the impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment in China. Our estimates demonstrate that foreign direct investment across regions in China is increasing in the existing network of regional branches of foreign banks, which itself is driven (and therefore instrumented) by the timing of the regional phasing out of the local limits for foreign banks on local…

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English / 01/01/2015

New graphical methods and test statistics for testing composite normality

Several graphical methods for testing univariate composite normality from an i.i.d. sample are presented. They are endowed with correct simultaneous error bounds and yield size-correct tests. As all are based on the empirical CDF, they are also consistent for all alternatives. For one test, called the modified stabilized probability test, or MSP, a highly simplified computational…

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English / 01/01/2015

Risk preferences around the world

We present results from a large-scale international survey on risk preferences conducted in 53 countries. In all countries, we find, on average, an attitude of risk aversion in gains and of risk seeking in losses. The degree of risk aversion shows significant cross-country differences. Moreover, risk attitudes in our sample depend not only on economic conditions but also on cultural…

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English / 01/01/2015

On the determinants of household debt maturity choice

This article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice. The behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis. We derive a positive relationship between the long-term discount factor δ and the optimal maturity of household loans. The cultural…

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English / 01/01/2015

Robust estimation of shape-constrained state price density surfaces

Given a theoretical pricing model, an implied volatility can be extracted from an option’s market price. Given a set of options with the same maturity and a range of strike prices, it is possible to extract (an approximation to) the entire risk-neutral probability density without having to assume a theoretical pricing model. There are a variety of related methods to do this, but all…

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English / 01/01/2015

Measuring risk with multiple eligible assets

The risk of financial positions is measured by the minimum amount of capital to raise and invest in eligible portfolios of traded assets in order to meet a prescribed acceptability constraint. We investigate nondegeneracy, finiteness and continuity properties of these risk measures with respect to multiple eligible assets. Our finiteness and continuity results highlight the interplay…

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English / 01/01/2015

Essays on Nonaffine Option Pricing and Random Forests in the Fields of Finance

This thesis considers two main subjects divided in four problems in the broad field of mathematical finance. The first chapter treats option pricing followed by three chapters on the application of the machine learning algorithm of Random Forests to finance, specifically to risk capital aggregation, portfolio optimization and macro stress testing. In all four chapters new…

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English / 01/01/2015

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