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Globally evolutionarily stable portfolio rules

hort-run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially
reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules), distributing their wealth between
assets in fixed proportions. Our main goal is to identify globally evolutionarily stable strategies, allowing an
investor to “survive,” i.e., to…

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English / 01/05/2008

Leading by example

Luca Taschini outlines how collaboration between the academic and the business world has helped one company in the cement industry to tackle the EU emissions trading scheme.

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English / 01/04/2008

Assessing and managing operational risk with a special emphasis on terrorism risk

The objective of this thesis is to consider different risk
management issues in relation to operational risk with a special emphasis on terrorism risk. Our motivation to implement research in this particularly challenging area of risk management is due to the increasing magnitude of operational losses over the last decade and their negative effect on financial industry. This…

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English / 01/04/2008

Valuation of default-sensitive claims under imperfect information

We propose a valuation method for financial assets subject to default risk, where investors cannot observe the state variable triggering the default but observe a correlated price process. The model is sufficiently general to encompass a large class of structural models and can be seen as a generalization of the model of Duffie and Lando (Econometrica 69:633–664, [2001]). In this…

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English / 01/04/2008

Stock options and managers’ incentives to cheat

This paper develops a continuous-time real options’ pricing model to study managers’ incentives to cheat in the presence of equity-based compensation plans. It shows that managers’ incentives to cheat are strongly influenced by the efficiency of the justice. The model’s main result is that managers have greater incentives to commit fraudulent actions under stock options than under…

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English / 16/03/2008

Liquidity management and overnight rate calendar effects: Evidence from German banks

We document a general pattern in the euro area overnight interbank rate (EONIA) and analyze how German banks compared to other EMU banks respond to these predictable changes in the price for reserve holdings. At the beginning of the maintenance period, when the EONIA is typically above average, we observe that German banks hold substantially less reserves than their daily average…

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English / 01/03/2008

Local minimizers of functionals with multiple volume constraints

We study variational problems with volume constraints, i.e., with level sets of prescribed measure. We introduce a numerical method to approximate local minimizers and illustrate it with some two-dimensional examples. We demonstrate numerically nonexistence results which had been obtained analytically in previous work. Moreover, we show the existence of discontinuous dependence of…

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English / 07/02/2008

Prospect theory for continuous distributions

We extend the original form of prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky from finite lotteries to arbitrary probability distributions, using an approximation method based on weak-⋆ convergence. The resulting formula is computationally easier than the corresponding formula for cumulative prospect theory and makes it possible to use prospect theory in future applications in economics and…

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English / 01/02/2008

Computational aspects of general equilibrium theory: refutable theories of value

This monograph presents a general equilibrium methodology for microeconomic policy analysis. It is intended to serve as an alternative to the now classical, axiomatic general equilibrium theory as exposited in Debreu`s Theory of Value (1959) or Arrow and Hahn`s General Competitive Analysis (1971).
The methodology proposed in this monograph does not presume the existence of…

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English / 01/01/2008

Computation of general equilibria (new developments)

In this article, I review two recent developments in the theory of computation of general equilibria. First, following Brown, DeMarzo and Eaves (1996) several papers have developed globally convergent algorithms for the computation of general equilibria in models with incomplete asset markets. I review some of the developments in that area. Second, new developments in computational…

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English / 01/01/2008

Markov equilibria in macroeconomics

We review the recent literature in macroeconomics that analyses Markov equilibria in dynamic general equilibrium model. After defining the Markov equilibrium concept we first summarize what is known about the existence and uniqueness of such equilibria in models where sequential equilibria can be obtained by solving a suitable social planner problem. We then discuss the existence…

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English / 01/01/2008

What is behind the priority heuristic?: a mathematical analysis and comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)

Comments on the article by E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig. The authors discuss the priority heuristic, a recent model for decisions under risk. They reanalyze the experimental validity of this approach and discuss how these results compare with cumulative prospect theory, the currently most established model in behavioral economics. They also discuss how general…

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English / 01/01/2008

Risk Prediction: A DWARF-like Approach

A large proportion of the most viable time series models used in empirical finance for density and value-at-risk forecasting are estimated with maximum likelihood methods. By way of its definition, the likelihood implicitly places equal weight on each of the observations in the sample, but this need not be optimal, depending on the extent to which the model and the true data…

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English / 01/01/2008

Uniform saddlepoint approximations for ratios of quadratic forms

Ratios of quadratic forms in correlated normal variables which introduce noncentrality into the quadratic forms are considered. The denominator is assumed to be positive (with probability 1). Various serial correlation estimates such as least-squares, Yule–Walker and Burg, as well as Durbin–Watson statistics, provide important examples of such ratios. The cumulative distribution…

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English / 01/01/2008

Economic growth through the development process

In this paper, I discuss some recent research in the area of economic growth and development emphasizing the endogenous dynamics of policies and organizational forms in a world characterized by credit-market and labor-market imperfections. I present a simple model of technological convergence featuring an endogenous evolution of contractual arrangements. The key assumption is that…

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English / 01/01/2008

Are pension fund managers overconfident?

Empirical studies show that people tend to be overconfident about the precision of their knowledge, leading to miscalibration. Consistent with this, we found that on overage the decision makers of Swiss pension plans provide too narrow confidence intervals when asked to estimate the past return of various assets. Their confidence intervals are also systematically too narrow in their…

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English / 01/01/2008

Preferences as human capital: rational choice theories of endogenous preferences and socioeconomic changes

We discuss the theoretical and empirical foundations of modern economic theories of cultural transmission. The importance of cultural factors in shaping economic and social transformations has been the focus of a long-standing debate in social sciences since the XIXth Century. Neoclassical economics has remained at the
marging of this debate. However, there has been a recent…

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English / 01/01/2008

Evaluating lotteries, risks, and risk-mitigation programs

Two experiments were designed to explore the existence of systematic differences in risk perceptions and risk attitudes between Chinese and US participants. The first experiment involved ranking monetary lotteries using measures of perceived riskiness and willingness to pay (WTP). Several simple heuristics were evaluated to predict perceived riskiness and WTP. Using WTP responses,…

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English / 01/01/2008

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