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From the decompositions of a stopping times to risk premium decompositions

The occurrence of some events can impact asset prices and produce losses. The amplitude of these losses are partly determined by the degree of predictability of those events by the market investors, as risk premiums build up in an asset price as a compensation of the anticipated losses. The aim of this paper is to propose a general framework where these phenomena can be properly…

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English / 01/06/2017

Robust normal mixtures for financial portfolio allocation

A new approach for multivariate modelling and prediction of asset returns is proposed. It is based on a two-component normal mixture, estimated using a fast new variation of the minimum covariance determinant (MCD) method made suitable for time series. It outperforms the (shrinkage-augmented) MLE in terms of out-of-sample density forecasts and portfolio performance. In addition to…

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English / 01/06/2017

How Investment Performance Affects the Formation and Use of Beliefs

This study provides new insights on how investors form beliefs about future asset prices and how they use these beliefs for their trading decisions. Compared to the objective Bayesian benchmark, investors become overly optimistic when they face a paper loss. In addition, selling decisions are less sensitive to beliefs than purchase decisions. This difference is driven by selling…

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English / 22/05/2017

The Univariate Collapsing Method for Portfolio Optimization

The univariate collapsing method (UCM) for portfolio optimization is based on obtaining the predictive mean and a risk measure such as variance or expected shortfall of the univariate pseudo-return series generated from a given set of portfolio weights and multivariate set of assets under interest and, via simulation or optimization, repeating this process until the desired portfolio…

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English / 05/05/2017

What are asset demand tests of expected utility really testing?

Assuming the classic contingent claim setting, a number of financial asset demand tests of Expected Utility have been developed and implemented in experimental settings. However the domain of preferences of these asset demand tests differ from the mixture space of distributions assumed in the traditional binary lottery laboratory tests of von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility…

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English / 01/05/2017

Income taxes, sorting and the costs of housing: evidence from municipal boundaries in Switzerland

We provide novel evidence on the role of income taxes for housing rents and spatial sorting. Drawing on comprehensive micro-level data, we estimate the responsiveness of households to tax differentials across municipal boundaries. Correcting for unobservable location characteristics and isolating the residential sorting component, we identify an income tax elasticity of rents of…

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English / 01/05/2017

Re-use of collateral: Leverage, volatility, and welfare

We assess the quantitative implications of the re-use of collateral on financial market leverage, volatility, and welfare within an infinite-horizon asset-pricing model with heterogeneous agents. In our model, the ability of agents to re-use frees up collateral that can be used to back more transactions. Re-use thus contributes to the build-up of leverage and significantly increases…

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English / 21/04/2017

A Two-Factor Cointegrated Commodity Price Model with an Application to Spread Option Pricing

In this paper, we propose an easy-to-use yet comprehensive model for a system of cointegrated commodity prices. While retaining the exponential affine structure of previous approaches, our model allows for an arbitrary number of cointegration relationships. We show that the cointegration component allows capturing well-known features of commodity prices, i.e., upward sloping (…

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English / 01/04/2017

The Impact of Culture on Loss Aversion

Based on the literature on the relationship between culture, emotion, and loss aversion, we derive that culture can influence the degree of loss aversion. To test our hypotheses, we conduct a standardized survey in 53 countries worldwide that includes the questions from the Hofstede survey on cultural dimensions as well as lottery questions on loss aversion. The results show that…

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English / 01/04/2017

Estimating cumulative prospect theory parameters from an international survey

We conduct a standardized survey on risk preferences in 53 countries worldwide and estimate cumulative prospect theory parameters from the data. The parameter estimates show that significant differences on the cross-country level are to some extent robust and related to economic and cultural differences. In particular, a closer look on probability weighting underlines gender…

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English / 01/04/2017

Pricing and Disentanglement of American Puts in the Hyper-Exponential Jump-Diffusion Model

We analyze American put options in a hyper-exponential jump-diffusion model. Our contribution is threefold. Firstly, by following a maturity randomization approach, we solve the partial integro-differential equation and obtain a tight lower bound for the American option price. Secondly, our method allows us to disentangle the contributions of jump and diffusion for the American early…

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English / 01/04/2017

A survival analysis of islamic and conventional banks

Are Islamic banks inherently more stable than conventional banks? We address this question by applying a survival analysis based on the Cox proportional hazard model to a comprehensive sample of 421 banks in 20 Middle and Far Eastern countries from 1995 to 2010. By comparing the failure risk for both bank types, we find that Islamic banks have a significantly lower risk of failure…

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English / 01/04/2017

Mapping the interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities

This paper provides a unique snapshot of the exposures of EU banks to shadow banking entities within the global financial system. Drawing on a rich and novel dataset, the paper documents the cross-sector and cross-border linkages and considers which are the most relevant for systemic risk monitoring. From a macroprudential perspective, the identification of potential feedback and…

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English / 27/03/2017

A Climate stress-test of the financial system

The urgency of estimating the impact of climate risks on the financial system is increasingly recognized among scholars and practitioners. By adopting a network approach to financial dependencies, we look at how climate policy risk might propagate through the financial system. We develop a network-based climate stress-test methodology and apply it to large Euro Area banks in a ‘green…

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English / 27/03/2017

How Media Coverage of Corporate Social Irresponsibility Increases Financial Risk Media Coverage of Corporate Social Irresponsibility

This article explores the relationship between corporate social irresponsibility (CSI) and financial risk. We posit that media coverage of CSI generates risk by providing conditions that increase the potential for stakeholder sanctions. Through analyzing an international panel of 539 firms during 2008–2013, we find that firms receiving higher CSI coverage face higher financial risk.…

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English / 23/03/2017

Monetáris politika és a bankok hitelkínálata

Növeli-e az alacsony kamatláb a banki hitelkínálatot? Tanulmányunkban egy magyar, vállalati szintű hiteladatbázis panelstruktúrában történő elemzésével keressük a választ a kérdésre. Kashyap–Stein [2000] identifikációs módszerét vállalati és idő fix hatásokkal kiegészítve teszteljük a feltételezést, hogy a kamatok csökkenése különbözőképpen befolyásolja-e az alacsony és a magas…

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English / 21/03/2017

Immigration and voting for the far right

Does the presence of immigrants in one's neighborhood affect voting for far right-wing parties? We study the case of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) that, under the leadership of Jörg Haider, increased its vote share from less than 5% in the early 1980s to 27% by the end of the 1990s and continued to attract more than 20% of voters in the 2013 national election. We find that…

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English / 07/03/2017

Dividends and leverage: How to optimally exploit a non-renewable investment

In this paper we model the situation where a non-renewable investment is given, for instance a resource reservoir, and show how to optimally trade-off between dividends and leverage, in order to maximize a performance indicator for shareholders, up to the bankruptcy time. We then study the way market risk (the volatility of the market price of the resource) impacts the optimal…

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English / 01/03/2017

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