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Taking Banks to Solow

We develop a simple integration of banks into the Solow model. The objective is to provide a tractable benchmark for analyzing the long-term impact of crises on economic activities and growth. A fraction of firms have to rely on banks for financing their investments while banks face themselves an endogenous leverage constraint. Informed lending by banks and uninformed lending through…

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English / 24/02/2015

Quantification and characteristics of household inflation expectations in Switzerland

Inflation expectations are a key variable in conducting monetary policy. However, these expectations are generally unobservable and only certain proxy variables exist, such as surveys on inflation expectations. This article offers guidance on the appropriate quantification of household inflation expectations in the Swiss Consumer Survey, where answers are qualitative in nature. We…

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English / 13/02/2015

Collateral requirements and asset prices

Many assets derive their value not only from future cash flows but also from their ability to serve as collateral. In this paper, we investigate this collateral premium and its impact on asset returns in an infinite-horizon general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents facing col- lateral constraints for borrowing. We document that borrowing against collateral substantially…

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English / 01/02/2015

The shadow cost of repos and bank liability structure

Making use of a structural model that allows for optimal liquidity management, we study the role that repos play in a bank's financing structure. In our model the bank's assets consist of illiquid loans and liquid reserves and are financed by a combination of repos, long--term debt, deposits and equity. Repos are a cheap source of funding, but they are subject to an…

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English / 27/01/2015

Bank-firm relationships: A review of the implications for firms and banks in normal and crisis times

Banks are important providers of external finance to firms. In order to solve asymmetric information problems, firms and banks often engage in bank-firm relationships. Relationship banking occurs when a bank and a borrower enter multiple mutual interactions and both parties invest in obtaining some counterparty specific information, binding bank and firm, to a certain degree, to each…

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English / 01/01/2015

Multivariate asset return prediction with mixture models

The use of mixture distributions for modeling asset returns has a long history in finance. New methods of demonstrating support for the presence of mixtures in the multivariate case are provided. The use of a two-component multivariate normal mixture distribution, coupled with shrinkage via a quasi-Bayesian prior, is motivated, and shown to be numerically simple and reliable to…

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English / 01/01/2015

Robust capital requirements with model risk

We study capital requirements when the bank's econometric model only approximately describes the dynamics of portfolio returns—which is virtually always the case in practice. We derive a simple formula for capital requirements based on a first-order Taylor expansion of the Value at Risk around a ‘model confidence’ parameter. This formula allows to reflect the bank's…

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English / 01/01/2015

ALRIGHT: Asymmetric LaRge-Scale (I)GARCH with Hetero-Tails

It is well-known in empirical finance that virtually all asset returns, whether monthly, daily, or intraday, are heavy-tailed and, particularly for stock returns, are mildly but often significantly negatively skewed. However, the tail indices, or maximally existing moments of the returns, can differ markedly across assets. To accommodate these stylized facts when modeling the joint…

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English / 01/01/2015

Improving Investment Decisions with Simulated Experience

We apply a new and innovative approach to communicating risks associated with financial products that should support investors in making better investment decisions. In our experiments, participants are able to gain "simulated experience" by random sampling of a previously described return distribution. We find that simulated experience considerably improves participants’…

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English / 01/01/2015

An information system supporting cap and trade in organizations

We present a software system to create and implement internal markets in organizations that want to limit the CO2 emissions or the use of scarce resources by their employees. This system can be applied to domains such as business travel by distributing a limited number of permits for business travel-related CO2 emissions at the beginning of a period and then allowing the permits to…

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English / 01/01/2015

The economic impact of merger control legislation

We investigate the impact of legislative reforms in merger control legislation in nineteen industrial countries between 1987 and 2004. We find that strengthening merger control decreases the stock prices of non-financial firms, while increasing those of banks. Cross sectional regressions show that the discretion embedded in the supervisory control of bank mergers is a major…

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English / 01/01/2015

Differently unequal: Zooming-in on the distributional dimensions of the crisis in euro area countries

This paper discusses how income inequality developed during the current crisis in euro area countries, as well as the role played by each income source. Based on an extended definition of income – including additional components which do not appear in the standard Eurostat definitions – we complement the information provided by the Gini index and quantile ratios by computing an…

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English / 01/01/2015

Sovereign debt sustainability in advanced economies

We develop a measure of maximum sustainable government debt for advanced economies. How much investors are willing to lend to a country's government depends on how high a primary surplus they expect that government to generate, how fast they expect the country to grow, how volatile they expect that growth to be, and how much debt they expect the government will be able to raise…

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English / 01/01/2015

De la grande guerre à la crise permanente

Les marchés financiers et les grandes banques ont atteint une taille, une complexité et un degré d’opacité particulièrement inquiétants, qui leur permet d’accroître encore plus leur pouvoir. Au niveau international, les dirigeants élus, qu’ils soient de gauche ou de droite, n’appliquent le plus souvent qu’une seule et même politique économique, celle qui répond aux intérêts de l’…

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Français / 01/01/2015

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