infonet-economy

We find that stocks exhibiting high dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts do not only underperform in the U.S. but also in some European countries. However, testing for the dispersion effect in many countries calls for adequate multiple testing controls. Under this paradigm it turns out that none of the naively derived dispersion effects proves to be a sustainable…

This article examines how firms facing volatile input prices and holding some degree of market power in their product market link their risk management and their production or pricing strategies. This issue is relevant in many industries ranging from manufacturing to energy retailing, where firms rendered "risk averse" by financial frictions decide on and commit to their…

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be…

We empirically test the hypothesis that relatively high returns to talent explain the wage premium for working in finance. We exploit a specificity of the French educational system to build a precise measure of talent that we match with compensation data obtained from an educational elite. Using this measure, we show wage returns to talent to be three times higher in the finance…

We characterize when a convex risk measure associated to a law-invariant acceptance set in L$^∞$ can be extended to L$^p$, 1≤p<∞, preserving finiteness and continuity. This problem is strongly connected to the statistical robustness of the corresponding risk measures. Special attention is paid to concrete examples including risk measures based on expected utility, max-correlation…

Simple, fast methods for modeling the portfolio distribution corresponding to a non-elliptical, leptokurtic, asymmetric, and conditionally heteroskedastic set of asset returns are entertained. Portfolio optimization via simulation is demonstrated, and its benefits are discussed. An augmented mixture of normals model is shown to be superior to both standard (no short selling)…

Network techniques are applied to a case study. The results show that using a joint approach can help in giving further insight into the analysis of informal ties in an organization. Special emphasis is given to centrality. The concept of mutual awareness, both on an individual and a global levels, is introduced and illustrated.

A fast method is developed for value-at-risk and expected shortfall prediction for univariate asset return time series exhibiting leptokurtosis, asymmetry and conditional heteroskedasticity. It is based on a GARCH-type process driven by noncentral t innovations. While the method involves the use of several shortcuts for speed, it performs admirably in terms of accuracy and actually…