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Ordinary economic voting behavior in the extraordinary election of Adolf Hitler

The enormous Nazi voting literature rarely builds on modern statistical or economic research. By adding these approaches, we find that the most widely accepted existing theories of this era cannot distinguish the Weimar elections from almost any others in any country. Via a retrospective voting account, we show that voters most hurt by the depression, and most likely to oppose the…

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English / 04/12/2008

Entry and exit decision problem with implementation delay

We study investment and disinvestment decisions in situations where there is a time lag 0 from the time t when the decision is taken to the time when the decision is implemented. Applying the probabilistic approach to the combined entry and exit decisions under the Parisian implementation delay, we solve the constrained maximization problem, obtaining an analytic solution to the…

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English / 01/12/2008

Behavioural finance for private banking

A complete framework for applications of behavioral finance in private banking, Behavioural Finance for Private Banking considers client needs specific to private banking like personal circumstances, objectives, and attitude to risk. This book includes the theoretical foundations of investment decision-making, an introduction to behavioral biases, an explanation of cultural…

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English / 01/12/2008

Out of sample forecasts of quadratic variation

We compare the forecasts of Quadratic Variation given by the Realized Volatility (RV) and the Two Scales Realized Volatility (TSRV) computed from high frequency data in the presence of market microstructure noise, under several different dynamics for the volatility process and assumptions on the noise. We show that TSRV largely outperforms RV, whether looking at bias, variance, RMSE…

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English / 01/11/2008

An econometric analysis of emission allowance prices

Knowledge of the statistical distribution of the prices of emission allowances, and their forecastability, are crucial in constructing, among other things, purchasing and risk management strategies in the emissions-constrained markets. This paper analyzes the two emission permits markets, CO2 in Europe, and SO2 in the US, and investigates a model for dealing with the unique stylized…

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English / 01/10/2008

"Economic possibilities for our grandchildren" 75 years after: a global perspective

In the heart of the Great Crisis, amidst great uncertainty and concerns surrounding the future of capitalism, John Maynard Keynes launched his optimistic prophecy that growth and technological change would allow mankind to solve its economic problem within a century. He envisioned a world where people would work much less and be less oppressed by the satisfaction of material needs.…

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English / 01/09/2008

The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revisited

Recently, a number of authors have argued that the standard search model cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies, given shocks of a plausible magnitude. We propose a new calibration strategy of the standard model that uses data on the cost of vacancy creation and cyclicality of wages to identify the two key parameters - the…

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English / 01/09/2008

Strukturierte Produkte - je einfacher, desto besser

Empirische Untersuchungen zeigen, dass sich einfach strukturierte Produkte für die Anleger am meisten lohnen. Wegen mangelnder Transparenz seitens der Anbieter und wegen psychologischer Fehleinschätzungen kaufen viele Investoren aber oft komplexe und teure Vehikel.

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English / 26/08/2008

A smolyak collocation algorithm for an international real business cycle model

We describe a sparse grid collocation algorithm to compute recursive solutions of dynamic economies with a sizable number of state variables. We show how powerful this method may be in applications by computing the nonlinear recursive solution of an international real business cycle model with a substantial number of countries, complete insurance markets and frictions that impede…

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English / 28/06/2008

Second-order stochastic dominance, reward-risk portfolio selection, and the CAPM

Starting from the reward-risk model for portfolio selection introduced in De Giorgi (2004), we derive the reward-risk Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) analogously to the classical mean-variance CAPM. The reward-risk portfolio selection arises from an axiomatic definition of reward and risk measures based on few basic principles, including consistency with second order stochastic…

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English / 01/06/2008

Occupational choice and the spirit of capitalism

The British Industrial Revolution triggered a socioeconomic transformation whereby the landowning aristocracy was replaced by industrial capitalists rising from the middle classes as the economically dominant group. We propose a theory of preference formation under financial-market imperfections that can account for this pattern. Parents shape their children’s preferences in response…

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English / 01/05/2008

A GARCH option pricing model with filtered historical simulation

We propose a new method for pricing options based on GARCH models with filtered historical innovations. In an incomplete market framework, we allow for different distributions of historical and pricing return dynamics, which enhances the model's flexibility to fit market option prices. An extensive empirical analysis based on S&P 500 index options shows that our model…

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English / 01/05/2008

Globally evolutionarily stable portfolio rules

hort-run equilibrium of supply and demand. Assets pay dividends that are partially consumed and partially
reinvested. The traders use fixed-mix investment strategies (portfolio rules), distributing their wealth between
assets in fixed proportions. Our main goal is to identify globally evolutionarily stable strategies, allowing an
investor to “survive,” i.e., to…

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English / 01/05/2008

Leading by example

Luca Taschini outlines how collaboration between the academic and the business world has helped one company in the cement industry to tackle the EU emissions trading scheme.

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English / 01/04/2008

Assessing and managing operational risk with a special emphasis on terrorism risk

The objective of this thesis is to consider different risk
management issues in relation to operational risk with a special emphasis on terrorism risk. Our motivation to implement research in this particularly challenging area of risk management is due to the increasing magnitude of operational losses over the last decade and their negative effect on financial industry. This…

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English / 01/04/2008

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