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Networked FDI: sales and sourcing patterns of Japanese foreign affiliates

This paper applies a novel empirical approach to characterising the horizontalness and verticalness of affiliates based on Yeaple’s complex FDI concept. In its simplest form, horizontalness is measured as affiliates' local sales share while their verticalness is measures as their share of non-local sourcing of intermediates. Japanese affiliates in most sectors and nations are…

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/ 26/09/2014

A surplus of ambition: can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?

IMF forecasts and the EU’s Fiscal Compact foresee Europe’s heavily indebted countries running primary budget surpluses of as much as 5 percent of GDP for as long as 10 years in order to maintain debt sustainability and bring their debt/GDP ratios down to the Compact’s 60 percent target. We show that primary surpluses this large and persistent are rare. In an extensive sample of high…

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/ 10/09/2014

Multilateralising 21st century regionalism

The multilateralisation of regionalism takes different forms when applied to deep versus shallow regional trade agreements (RTAs). Shallow agreements focus on discriminatory tariffs; hence, multilateralisation strives mainly to reduce discrimination. Deep agreements focus on the disciplines necessary to foster international production sharing; key provisions often resembling…

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/ 10/09/2014

Spiders and snakes: offshoring and agglomeration in the global economy

Global production sharing is determined by international cost differences and frictions related to the costs of unbundling stages spatially. The interaction between these forces depends on engineering details of the production process with two extremes being ‘snakes’ and ‘spiders’. Snakes are processes whose sequencing is dictated by engineering; spiders involve the assembly of parts…

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/ 10/09/2014

Air pollution in urban Beijing: the role of government - controlled information

This paper looks at the problem of information control behind the unsustainable levels of air pollution in China. In particular, it focuses on a large urban area, Beijing, and it examines the role of the public, government-controlled information and the adaptation choices of households in response to signals about high pollution. Our analysis is based on a simple theoretical…

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/ 09/09/2014

Ancillary benefits of GHG abatement policies in developing countries: a literature survey

In this subtask we survey the literature that estimates the ancillary benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in developing countries, and the extent to which its findings can be transferred across countries. Specifically, we focus upon the health benefits from emission reduction in developing nations. In order to evaluate the spillovers and indirect benefits that a country could…

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/ 15/08/2014

Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective

We study the interactions between global population, technological progress, per capita income, the demand for food, and agricultural land expansion over the period 1960 to 2100.We formulate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with a Barro-Becker representation of endogenous fertility. A manufacturing sector provides a consumption good and an agricultural sector provides food to…

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/ 15/08/2014

Tax competition with heterogeneous firms

This paper studies tax competition in an economic geography model that allows for agglomeration economies with trade costs and heterogeneous firms. We find that the Nash equilibrium involves the large country charging a higher tax than the small nation. Lower trade costs lead to an intensification of competition, a drop in Nash tax rates, and a narrowing of the gap. Since large,…

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/ 02/07/2014

Taxes and international risk sharing

We examine the extent to which differences in international tax rates may account for the small correlations of per capita consumption fluctuations across countries. Theory implies a close relationship between relative consumption growth, and consumption and capital income tax rate differentials. We find strong empirical evidence for this relationship. Idiosyncratic output…

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/ 01/07/2014

Financial support from the family network and illegal immigration

Barriers to immigration of low-skilled workers from developing countries into the advanced countries prevent many potential migrants from leaving their countries of origin. With very low home-country wages in relation to the cost of undocumented migration, the opportunity to migrate often hinges on becoming indebted to a human smuggling organization or family and friends. This paper…

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/ 17/06/2014

External shocks, internal shots: the geography of civil conflicts

This paper uses detailed information on the latitude and longitude of conflict events in Sub-Saharan African countries to study the impact of external income shocks on the likelihood of violence. We consider a number of external demand shocks faced by the countries or the regions within countries - temporary shocks such as changes in the world demand for agricultural commodities, and…

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/ 04/06/2014

Asylum seeking and irregular migration

This paper develops a model of optimizing behavior of asylum seekers whose objective is to reach an advanced country. Their personal characteristics and the challenges anticipated along the way determine whether they try to reach the ultimate destination with the aid of human smugglers or by applying for resettlement with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). In…

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/ 25/04/2014

Estimating the output gap to support the management of interest rates in Vietnam

In this paper, I apply three methods to estimate the output gap for Vietnam to support the conduct of monetary policy of the State Bank: the Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the production function approach and Bayesian estimation. I then compare the results obtained from these approaches and discuss their advantages and disadvantages to choose the optimal method for the estimation of the…

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/ 25/04/2014

Loan quality determinants: evaluating the contribution of bank-specific variables, macroeconomic factors and firm level information

This paper uses probit and ordered probit methods to examine the impact of banks’ policies in terms of cost efficiency, capitalization, activity diversification, credit growth and profitability, on the loan quality in the Tunisian banking sector after controlling for the effects of firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic conditions. Using a data set with detailed information…

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/ 25/04/2014

Business cycles in oil exporting countries: a declining role for oil?

In this study, we investigate the nature and possible sources of economic fluctuations in oil exporting countries using principle component and impulse-response analysis. The principal component analysis shows that the first two components can be statistically significantly explained by world GDP, but not by oil prices. We further develop our study using impulse-response analysis and…

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/ 25/04/2014

Minimum wage and firm employment: evidence from China

This paper studies how minimum wage policies affect firm employment in China using a unique county level minimum wage data set matched to disaggregated firm survey data. We investigate both the effect of imposing a minimum wage, and the effect of the policies that tightened enforcement in 2004. We find that the average effect of minimum wage changes is modest and positive, and that…

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English / 24/04/2014

Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?

While the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth has long been an issue of key importance in international macroeconomics, it has received renewed attention in recent years, owing to weaker growth rates and the debate on “currency wars”. However, in spite of its prevalence in the policy debate, the connection between real exchange rates and growth remains an unsettled…

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English / 04/04/2014

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