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Currency crises in reverse: do large real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?

While currency crises have been extensively studied, the opposite phenomenon, large appreciations, has been far less researched. We fill this gap by providing an empirical exploration of historical episodes of large real exchange rate appreciations, using a sample of 28 advanced and 25 emerging market economies, with annual data going back to 1970. We focus on the impact of large…

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/ 28/05/2013

Understanding Rating Addiction: US Courts and the Origins of Rating Agencies’ Regulatory License (1900-1940)

This paper discusses the “regulatory license” view that reliance by regulators on the output of rating agencies in the 1930s “caused” the agencies to become a central part of the fabric of the US financial system. Exploring pre-1930 court records, we find evidence of a growing reliance on the agencies that pre-dates the regulatory moves of the 1930s. We argue that courts began using…

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/ 28/05/2013

Pessimism, optimism and credit rationing

In their celebrated contribution on credit rationing, Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) showed that the expected return to the borrower on a loan is increasing in the risk of the project it funds. In this paper, I show that their results do not necessarily carry over to the case where the agents’ preferences can be described by rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU). In particular, a…

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/ 17/05/2013

Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: a survey

This paper surveys the recent literature on the links between public debt and economic growth in advanced economies. We find that theoretical models yield ambiguous results. Whether high levels of public debt have a negative effect on long-run growth is thus an empirical question. While many papers have found a negative correlation between debt and growth, our reading of the…

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/ 17/05/2013

Documenting legal dissonance: regulation of (and by) payback killing in Papua New Guinea

We provide a simple model for considering the interaction between multiple legal regimes existing simultaneously within a single jurisdiction. We demonstrate that, even when the fundamental relationship between outputs of such regimes is to behave as substitutes for one another, the existence of negative externalities between the enforcement technologies can result in the withdrawal…

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/ 17/05/2013

The making of a (vice-)president: party politics, ethnicity, village loyalty and community-driven development

African politics are often said to be dominated by ethnic divides, with the ensuing policies implemented by leaders being based almost exclusively on their ethnic power base. In this paper, we demonstrate that the village of origin of democratically-elected leaders matters for the attribution of development projects in the context of one of the largest Community-Driven Development (…

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/ 08/05/2013

Corruption and the curse: the dictator's choice

We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of a self-interested and unchecked ruler making decisions regarding the exploitation of a resource-rich country. This dictator makes the recursive choice between either investing domestically to live off the productivity of the country while facing the risk of being ousted, or looting the country’s riches by liquefying the resources and…

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/ 07/05/2013

A bargaining theory of trade invoicing and pricing

We develop a theoretical model of international trade pricing in which individual exporters and importers bargain over the transaction price and exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the choice of price and invoicing currency respects the full market structure, including the extent of fragmentation and the degree of heterogeneity across importers and across exporters…

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/ 22/04/2013

Trade effects of export taxes

Export taxes usage has recently risen. They are widely presumed to affect trade, but the lack of data has prevented a systematic evaluation of their trade effects. Based on a new dataset of tax rates at the product level, this paper estimates the distortionary trade effects of export taxes. The results, which are based on theory-consistent estimation of a structural gravity model,…

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/ 16/04/2013

Panel export taxes (PET) dataset : new data on export tax rates

This paper describes a newly collected dataset on export tax rates, which provides comprehensive coverage for 20 countries, 2 time periods and all products at HS6 level. Export tax rates are based on national government documentation, including preferential provisions for partner countries. The data are organized in a harmonized and comparable format, including ad-valorem equivalents…

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/ 16/04/2013

Does community driven development work? : evidence from Senegal

Community Driven Development (CDD) programs are an extremely important component of the World Bank’s portfolio in the developing world, representing close to $7 billion in 2003, yet solid empirical evidence on their impact is relatively scarce, especially for Subsaharan Africa. In this paper, we consider the impact on access to basic services, household expenditures and child…

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/ 10/04/2013

Essential heterogeneity in the impact of community driven development

We consider essential heterogeneity in the impact of a large-scale Community-Driven Development (CDD) program in Senegal. Essential heterogeneity arises when unobservables determine the idiosyncratic gains from participation in a program, thereby generating correlation between treatment effects and selection. Standard instrumental variables estimates are shown to provide an extremely…

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/ 10/04/2013

Understanding the GATT's wins and the WTO's woes

The WTO’s predicament is a puzzle. Compared to other international organisations it is a huge success, yet the WTO is widely regarded as suffering from a deep malaise. Exhibit A is the inability to conclude a round of multilateral trade negotiations. The last one came in 1994; the current talks (the Doha Round) are in their ninth year and far from done.1 Exhibit B is that most WTO…

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/ 13/03/2013

Global supply chains: why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going

Global supply chains have transformed the world. They revolutionised development options facing poor nations – now they can join supply chains rather than having to invest decades in building their own. Offshoring of labour-intensive manufacturing stages and the attendant international mobility of technology launched era-defining growth in emerging markets – a change that fosters and…

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/ 13/03/2013

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