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Aggregate fluctuations in adaptive production networks

We study production networks where firms’ products can be described by a set of input and output characteristics, and links are formed only if the output characteristics of a seller match the input characteristics of a customer. We introduce a fully endogenous network formation model with monopolistically competitive firms, in which firms exit due to exogenous shocks, or the…

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English / 01/12/2016

Time vs. state in insurance: experimental evidence from contract farming in Kenya

The gains from insurance arise from the transfer of income across states. Yet, by requiring that the premium be paid upfront, standard insurance products also transfer income across time. We show that this intertemporal transfer can help explain low insurance demand, especially among the poor, and in a randomized control trial in Kenya we test a crop insurance product which removes…

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English / 01/12/2016

The economics of peace: can “Swiss” institutions do the job?

In the 5th edition of the UBS Center Public Paper Series, Dominic Rohner shows how conflict-torn countries can escape the vicious cycle of war and destruction. Much of the economics and political science literature on wars and conflict has focused on things that are hard for policymakers to change (natural resources, ethnic composition, and weather shocks). While this paper also…

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English / 01/12/2016

The slippery slope of dishonesty

Recent experiments suggest that dishonesty can escalate from small levels to ever-larger ones along a 'slippery slope'. Activity in bilateral amygdala tracks this gradual adaptation to repeated acts of self-serving dishonesty.

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English / 01/12/2016

Investigating the group-level impact of advanced dual-echo fMRI combinations

Multi-echo fMRI data acquisition has been widely investigated and suggested to optimize sensitivity for detecting the BOLD signal. Several methods have also been proposed for the combination of data with different echo times. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether these advanced echo combination methods provide advantages over the simple averaging of echoes when…

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English / 01/12/2016

Brain network mechanisms underlying motor enhancement by transcranial entrainment of gamma oscillations

Gamma and beta oscillations are routinely observed in motor-related brain circuits during movement preparation and execution. Entrainment of gamma or beta oscillations via transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) over primary motor cortex (M1) has opposite effects on motor performance, suggesting a causal role of these brain rhythms for motor control. However, it is…

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English / 23/11/2016

Limited consumer attention in international trade

This paper introduces a model of limited consumer attention into an otherwise standard new trade theory model with love-of-variety preferences and heterogeneous firms. In this setting, we show that international integration needs not be welfare enhancing if the consumers' capacity to gather and process information is limited. Rather, it intensifies competition for scarce…

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English / 01/11/2016

Distributional comparative statics with heterogeneous agents

We propose a formal way to systematically study the differential effects of exogenous shocks in economic models with heterogeneous agents. Our setting applies to models that can be rephrased as "competition for market shares" in a broad sense. We show that even in presence of any number of arbitrarily heterogeneous agents, a single recursion relation characterizes the…

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English / 01/11/2016

Health and skill formation in early childhood

This paper analyzes the developmental origins and the evolution of health, cognitive, and socio-emotional skills during early childhood, from age 0 to 5. We explicitly model the dynamic interactions of health with the child’s behavior and cognitive skills, as well as the role of parental investment. A dynamic factor model corrects for the presence of measurement error in the proxy…

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English / 01/11/2016

Leverage and beliefs: personal experience and risk-taking in margin lending

What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Using unique archival data on collateralized lending, we show that personal experience can affect individual risk-taking and aggregate leverage. When an investor syndicate speculating in Amsterdam in 1772 went bankrupt, many lenders were exposed. In the end, none of them actually lost money.…

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English / 01/11/2016

Brain stimulation reveals crucial role of overcoming self-centeredness in self-control

Neurobiological models of self-control predominantly focus on the role of prefrontal brain mechanisms involved in emotion regulation and impulse control. We provide evidence for an entirely different neural mechanism that promotes self-control by overcoming bias for the present self, a mechanism previously thought to be mainly important for interpersonal decision-making. In two…

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English / 05/10/2016

The benefits of intervention: birth weights in Basle 1912-1920

To assess the impact of interventions on well-being during war time, we analyze data from the birth records at the university maternity hospital of Basle in the period 1912-1920. Birth weight of children from medium SEP families decreased during the crisis years 1918 and 1919, but not for low and high SEP families. A potential explanation is access to food: while high SEP families…

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English / 01/10/2016

Changing cultural attitudes towards female genital cutting

As globalization brings people with incompatible attitudes into contact, cultural conflicts inevitably arise. Little is known about how to mitigate conflict and about how the conflicts that occur can shape the cultural evolution of the groups involved. Female genital cutting is a prominent example1, 2, 3. Governments and international agencies have promoted the abandonment of cutting…

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English / 01/10/2016

The order of knowledge and robust action. how to deal with economic uncertainty?

Uncertainty in economics is generated by “nature” but also by the model we use to “produce the future”. The production of the future comprises besides the allocation of resources on different instruments (technologies, financial products) also the design of the instruments. Specialization and diversification considerations point to the advantages of targeting instruments to a rich…

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English / 01/10/2016

Macroeconomic risk in exchange rates: three empirical essays

This introductory umbrella chapter interlinks the three essays of this dissertation thesis and explains their stance towards the economic discipline. The essays focus on two key exchange rate puzzles, which are the forward premium puzzle of Fama (1984) and the consumption real exchange rate correlation puzzle of Backus and Smith (1993). As regards the first puzzle, this thesis…

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English / 01/10/2016

Partial adaptation of obtained and observed value signals preserves information about gains and losses

Given that the range of rewarding and punishing outcomes of actions is large but neural coding capacity is limited, efficient processing of outcomes by the brain is necessary. One mechanism to increase efficiency is to rescale neural output to the range of outcomes expected in the current context, and process only experienced deviations from this expectation. However, this mechanism…

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English / 28/09/2016

Bilateral trade with loss-averse agents

We study the bilateral trade problem put forward by Myerson and Satterthwaite (1983) under the assumption that agents are loss-averse, using the model developed by Kőszegi and Rabin (2006, 2007). We show that the endowment effect increases the sellers information rent, and that the attachment effect reduces the buyer’s information rent. Further, depending on the distribution of types…

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English / 01/09/2016

Designing dynamic research contests

This paper considers the optimal design of dynamic research contests when the buyer can set time-dependent prizes. We derive the buyer-optimal contest and show that it entails an increasing prize schedule. Remarkably, this allows the buyer to implement a global stopping rule. In particular, the optimal contest attains the first-best. More generally, we show that global stopping rules…

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English / 01/09/2016

The China shock: learning from labor market adjustment to large changes in trade

China’s emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the…

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English / 01/09/2016

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