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Target Capital Structure Determinants and Speed of Adjustment Analysis to Address the Keynes-Hayek Debate

According to F. A. Hayek, Keynes' General Theory neglects an analysis of the production structure. As a contribution to this research gap, we look at companies' decisions to finance investments and at their agility to adjust their capital structure. We thus study the relationship between capital structure to finance corporate production and shifts in aggregate demand.…

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English / 14/12/2015

Foreign bank ownership and household credit

Theoretical and empirical work on banking emphasizes the role of banks in overcoming information asymmetries and agency problems between borrowers and lenders. This paper investigates the importance of bank ownership in determining the sorts of customers that a bank serves, and consequently, the sorts of information problems a bank lender chooses to address. Using survey data for…

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English / 01/10/2015

A hard nut to crack: What regulatory failure reveals about how rating really works

Some eight years on from the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006 it seems clear that this measure has achieved little in the way of substantive change in the credit rating industry. The new law did not prevent the series of rating failures that have contributed to the global financial crisis that started in summer 2007.

What lies at the heart of this regulatory…

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English / 03/09/2015

Electricity Derivatives Pricing with Forward-Looking Information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and…

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English / 01/09/2015

Labour market effects of sports and exercise: : Evidence from Canadian panel data

Based on the Canadian National Population Health Survey we estimate the effects of individual sports and exercise on individual labor market outcomes. The data covers the period from 1994 to 2008. It is longitudinal and rich in life-style, health, and physical activity information. Exploiting these features of the data allows for a credible identification of the effects as well as…

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English / 01/08/2015

The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk, Income Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate, income and house price risks and examine how the households' choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk…

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English / 01/08/2015

"You can have the cake and eat it:" The role of sovereign ratings in the construction of sovereign bonds as liquid and safe collateral

The fact that collateral whose function is to secure repayment via its attributed low credit and liquidity risk is traded prominently in a "shadow" banking environment may still go unnoticed. This article analyzes the role of credit rating agency (CRA) ratings in the construction of collateral using the example of sovereign ratings as eligibility criterion for sovereign…

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English / 09/07/2015

Microfinance Banks and Financial Inclusion

We examine how the geographical proximity to a microfinance bank affects financial inclusion. We study the expansion of the branch network of ProCredit banks in South-East Europe between 2006 and 2010. We report three main findings: First, ProCredit is more likely to open a new branch in areas with a large share of low-income households. Second, in locations where ProCredit opens a…

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English / 03/07/2015

BRICS Trade Strategy: Time For A Rethink. The 17th GTA Report

The term BRICS was coined by Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs over a decade ago. Unlike many acronyms, this one has stuck - largely because of the growing share of the world economy associated with the emerging economic powers Brazil, India, China, Russia and South Africa (the latter being added somewhat later.) With the greater global footprint, the policy choices of these countries…

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English / 01/07/2015

Extreme Value Theory for Heavy-Tails in Electricity Prices

Typical characteristics of electricity day-ahead prices at EPEX are the very high volatility and a large number of extreme price changes. In this paper, we look at hourly spot prices at the German electricity market and apply extreme value theory (EVT) to investigate the tails of the price change distribution. Our results show the importance of delimiting price spikes and modeling…

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English / 29/06/2015

Sharp IV Bounds on Average Treatment Effects on the Treated and Other Populations Under Endogeneity and Noncompliance

In the presence of an endogenous binary treatment and a valid binary instrument, causal effects are point identified only for the subpopulation of compliers, given that the treatment is monotone in the instrument. With the exception of the entire population, causal inference for further subpopulations has been widely ignored in econometrics. We invoke treatment monotonicity and/or…

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English / 15/06/2015

Culture and Household Saving

In this paper, I examine the role of culture for households' saving decisions. Exploiting historical language borders within Switzerland, I isolate the effect of culture from economic, institutional, demographic and geographic factors for a homogeneous and representative sample of households. The analysis is based on the Swiss Household Panel that I complement with geographic…

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English / 06/06/2015

Throwing Sand in the Wheels: How Foreign Trade Distortions Slowed LDC Export-Led Growth

This new eBook argues that least developed countries were hard hit by these barriers. Drawing on Global Trade Alert data, it argues that these barriers reduced these nations’ exports by 30% during the period 2009 to 2013 – over a quarter of a trillion US dollars in total.

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English / 01/06/2015

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