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Are Correlations Constant? Empirical and Theoretical Results on Popular Correlation Models in Finance

Multivariate GARCH models have been designed as an extension of their univariate counterparts. Such a view is appealing from a modeling perspective but imposes correlation dynamics that are similar to time-varying volatility. In this paper, we argue that correlations are quite different in nature. We demonstrate that the highly unstable and erratic behavior that is typically observed…

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English / 01/11/2017

Shirk or Work? On How Legislators React to Monitoring

In 2014 the Swiss Upper House introduced an electronic voting system, which would make it easier to monitor the voting behavior of its legislators. In this system, individual decisions on specific exogenously defined vote types are published automatically, while all other votes are not publicly disclosed. The present paper uses this institutional change to determine, in a quasi-…

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English / 01/11/2017

Something in the Air: Information Density, News Surprises, and Price Jumps

This paper introduces a new information density indicator to provide a more comprehensive understanding of price reactions to news and, more specifically, to the sources of jumps in financial markets. Our information density indicator, which measures the abnormal amount of noisy "ticker" news before scheduled macroeconomic announcements, is significantly related to the…

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English / 20/09/2017

Do Local Governments Tax Homeowner Communities Differently?

This paper investigates whether and how strongly the share of homeowners in a community affects residential property taxation by local governments. Different from renters, homeowners bear the full property tax burden irrespective of local market conditions, and the tax is more salient to them. "Homeowner communities" may hence oppose high property taxes in order to protect…

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English / 01/09/2017

Numeracy and the quality of on-the-job decisions: Evidence from loan officers

We examine how the numeracy level of employees influences the quality of their on-the-job decisions. Based on an administrative dataset of a retail bank we relate the performance of loan officers in a standardized math test to the accuracy of their credit assessments of small business borrowers. We find that loan officers with a high level of numeracy are more accurate in assessing…

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English / 01/07/2017

Best Land Use with Negative Externalities: Determining Land Values from Residential Rents

When land regulations are binding, then the land price per m2 is determined by the attractiveness of the location and the restrictiveness of the regulation. In the case of a maximum oor area ratio (FARmax) restriction, the best use land price can be directly expressed as a function of the FARmax and local amenities. We show theoretically and empirically how this approach can be used…

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English / 01/04/2017

Culture and Financial Literacy

We study the effect of culture on financial literacy by comparing secondary-school students along the German-French language border within Switzerland. We find that students in the Frenchspeaking
area have a lower level of financial literacy than students in the German-speaking area. The difference in financial literacy across the language groups is mainly observed for native…

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English / 03/02/2017

Why does the Job Corps increase gender earnings inequality?

Several studies considering the Job Corps find more positive earnings effects for males than for females. This effect heterogeneity in favor of males contrasts with the results of the majority of other training program evaluations. Applying the translated quantile approach of Bitler, Hoynes, and Domina (2014), I show that the main mechanism behind the surprising findings for the Job…

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English / 30/11/2016

What effect do vocational training vouchers have on the unemployed?

The objective of providing vocational training for the unemployed is to increase their chances of re-employment and human capital accumulation. In comparison to mandatory course assignment by case workers, the awarding of vouchers increases recipients’ freedom to choose between different courses and makes non-redemption a possibility. In addition, vouchers may introduce market…

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English / 01/11/2016

The Earned Income Tax Credit:Targeting the Poor but Crowding Out Wealth

In this paper, we quantify the effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) from a macroeconomic perspective. We analyze jointly the labor supply and saving responses to changes in tax credit generosity and their aggregate and distributional implications. Our results show that the EITC raises labor force participation, provides insurance to working poor households but also…

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English / 01/09/2016

Communal Land and Agricultural Productivity

Communal land tenure is a typical feature of many developing countries. Such tenure regimes implement a “use it or lose it” principle by imposing restrictions to land transferability that are enforced via the threat of expropriation. This paper measures the distortionary impact of communal land in a dynamic general equilibrium model of occupational selection, calibrated to Ethiopia.…

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English / 01/09/2016

Estimating Preferences from Referendum Votes: the Case of the Performing Arts

This paper studies the electoral connection in the domain of cultural policy spending by analyzing direct democratic referendums on financing of the performing arts. Previous empirical investigations into voter preferences for the arts are based on the (strong) assumption of full voter turnout. I show theoretically and empirically that capturing the turnout decision leads to a…

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English / 21/06/2016

Determinants of Liquidity (Re-)Allocation and the Decision to Cross-List or Cross-Delist

This paper examines the factors influencing the liquidity allocation between local and foreign dual listings. Based on a comprehensive data set covering the period between 2001 and 2011, empirical results suggest that the fraction of trading in the foreign listing decreases with a higher degree of stock market Integration measured as the stock price correlation with the world market…

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English / 06/06/2016

Changing Risk Perception and the Time-Varying Price of Risk

This paper investigates the impact of changes in risk perception on bond markets triggered by the 2007-08 financial crisis. Using a methodology novel to empirical finance, we quantify the increase in credit spreads caused by changes in risk pricing and changes in risk factors. The lasting increase in credit spreads is almost exclusively due to time-varying prices of risk. We…

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English / 01/06/2016

The Economic Drivers of Differences in House Price Inflation Rates across MSAs

This study examines why monetary policy at the national level can have vastly different effects on appreciation rates of single family houses across metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The study employs Case/Shiller monthly house price index data for 19 MSAs from 1992:06 to 2014:12 and FHFA quarterly house price index data for 94 MSAs from 1992:3 to 2014:4. We model the importance…

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English / 01/03/2016

Employment and Earnings Effects of Awarding Training Vouchers in Germany

Participation in intensive training programs for the unemployed in Germany is allocated by awarding training vouchers. Using rich administrative data for all vouchers and actual program participation,
the authors provide first estimates of the short-run and long-run employment and earnings effects of receiving a training voucher award based on a selection-on-observables…

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English / 01/01/2016

Electricity Derivatives Pricing with Forward-Looking Information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and…

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English / 01/09/2015

Sharp IV Bounds on Average Treatment Effects on the Treated and Other Populations Under Endogeneity and Noncompliance

In the presence of an endogenous binary treatment and a valid binary instrument, causal effects are point identified only for the subpopulation of compliers, given that the treatment is monotone in the instrument. With the exception of the entire population, causal inference for further subpopulations has been widely ignored in econometrics. We invoke treatment monotonicity and/or…

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English / 15/06/2015

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