infonet-economy

Typical characteristics of electricity day-ahead prices at EPEX are the very high volatility and a large number of extreme price changes. In this paper, we look at hourly spot prices at the German electricity market and apply extreme value theory (EVT) to investigate the tails of the price change distribution. Our results show the importance of delimiting price spikes and modeling…

This PhD thesis concerns the modelling of time-varying causal relationships between two signals, with a focus on signals measuring neural activities. The ability to compute a dynamic and frequency-specific causality statistic in this context is essential and Granger causality provides a natural statistical tool. In Chapter 1 we propose a review of the existing methods allowing one to…

Nowadays, the increase in data size and model complexity has led to increasingly difficult estimation problems. The numerical aspects of the estimation procedure can indeed be very challenging. To solve these estimation problems, approximate methods such as pseudo-likelihood functions or approximated estimating equations can be used as these methods are typically easier to implement…

The trading activity in the German intraday electricity market has increased significantly over the last years. This is partially due to an increasing share of renewable energy, wind and photovoltaic, which requires power generators to balance out the forecasting errors in their production. We investigate the bidding behavior in the intraday market by looking at both last prices and…

We propose a novel regime-switching approach for modeling electricity spot prices that takes into account the relation between spot and forward prices. Additionally the model is able to reproduce spikes and negative prices. Market prices are based on an observed forward curve. We distinguish between a base regime and an upper as well as a lower spike regime. The model parameters are…

We analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany, and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances…