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Monetary Policy Effects on Long-term Rates and Stock Prices

This paper explains the effects of monetary policy surprises on long-term
interest rates and stock prices in terms of changes in expected inflation, real
interest rate and dividend growth, and relates these effects to markets' perceptions of economic shocks and Fed's information set. We analyze stock and bond futures price co-movements and relate them to…

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English / 01/01/2013

Extreme Downside Liquidity Risk

We merge the literature on downside return risk with that on systematic liquidity risk and introduce the concept of extreme downside liquidity (EDL) risk. We show that the
cross-section of expected stock returns reflects a premium for EDL risk. Strong EDL risk stocks deliver a positive risk premium of more than 4% p.a. as compared to weak EDL risk stocks. The effect is more…

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English / 01/01/2013

Limits to Arbitrage During the Crisis: Funding Liquidity Constraints and Covered Indterst Parity

Arbitrage ensures that covered interest parity holds. The condition
is central to price foreign exchange forwards and interbank lending
rates, and reflects the efficient functioning of markets. Normally,
deviations from arbitrage, if any, last seconds and reach a few basis
points. But after the Lehman bankruptcy, arbitrage broke down.
By replicating…

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English / 08/11/2012

A forecast-based comparison of restricted Wishart autoregressive models for realized covariance matrices

Models for realized covariance matrices may suffer from the curse of dimensionality as more traditional multivariate volatility models (such as GARCH and stochastic volatility). Within the class of realized covariance models, we focus on the Wishart specification introduced by C. Gourieroux, J. Jasiak, and R.
Sufana [2009. The Wishart autoregressive process of multivariate…

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English / 01/10/2012

Contracts and Returns in Private Equity Investments

We analyze the relationship between contracts and returns in private equity (PE) investments. Contractual control in the form of covenants tends to be employed to identify good deals. Better quality fi?rms are more likely to have covenant-rich contracts, as they are less concerned by the constraints imposed by the covenants. PE investors appoint closer associates of the fund in deals…

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English / 05/09/2012

An Alternative Three-factor Model for International Markets: Evidence from the European Monetary Union

In this paper, we construct the three-factor model introduced by Chen et al. (2010) for a European sample covering 10 countries from the European Monetary Union and the period from 1990 to 2006. Two key findings result. First, we show that the properties of the European factors are comparable to those of the U.S. factors. Second, we show that the alternative three-factor model's…

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English / 01/07/2012

Strategien für Asien

Bisher waren Privat- und Grossbanken im asiatischen Raum in einer Vorreiterrolle. Inzwischen expandieren auch unabhängige Vermögensverwalter verstärkt.

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Deutsch / 17/04/2012

Is There Really No Conglomerate Discount?

Recent research questions the existence of a conglomerate discount. This study addresses two of the most important explanations for the conglomerate discount and finds evidence in support of an economically and statistically significant discount. The first explanation is that the risk-reducing effect of diversification increases debt value and consequently the use of the book value…

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English / 01/02/2012

Disposition Effect and Mutual Fund Performance

This article finds strong evidence for the presence of the disposition effect among US mutual fund managers. The analysis can establish a link between the disposition effect and mutual fund characteristics as well as changes in the macroeconomic environment. Managers with a lower disposition effect are found to invest in larger equities with a higher trade volume, a higher past…

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English / 03/01/2012

Information or Insurance? On the Role of Loan Officer Discretion in Credit Assessment

We employ a unique dataset of credit assessments for 3,756 small businesses by nine banks using an identical rating model to examine (i) to what extent loan officers use their discretion to smooth credit ratings of their clients, and (ii) to assess whether this use of discretion is driven by information about the creditworthiness of the borrower or by the insurance of clients against…

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English / 01/01/2012

Decomposing Performance

We present a new methodology for decomposing the (risk-adjusted) performance in empirical finance. Our technique offers the same straightforward economic intuition and all the statistical benefits of the portfolio sorts approach, in particular robustness to cross-sectional correlation, and in addition resolves the major drawbacks of portfolio sorts. Most importantly, our regression-…

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English / 01/01/2012

Cyclical Long-term Unemployment, Skill Loss, and Monetary Policy

Movements in long-term unemployment (LTU) exhibit a substantial cyclical component. I develop a business cycle model featuring labor market frictions and skill loss during unemployment to capture various stylized facts about the cyclical behavior of long-term unemployment. I find that the skill loss mechanism helps reproduce negative duration dependence, high persistence in…

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English / 01/01/2012

Limits to Arbitrage During the Crisis: Funding Liquidity Constraints & Covered Interest Parity

Arbitrage ensures that covered interest parity holds. The condition is central to price foreign exchange forwards and interbank lending rates, and reflects the efficient functioning of markets. Normally, deviations from arbitrage, if any, last seconds and reach a few basis points. After the Lehman bankruptcy, instead, arbitrage profits were large, persisted for months and involved…

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English / 01/01/2012

International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment

This paper proposes a way to study the transmission mechanism of the US monetary policy to foreign yield curves. It elaborates the high-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks from Piazzesi (2005) in an international setting and uses a sample of 125 policy rate decisions of the Fed to extract "realised" policy shocks. The Fed decisions span from February 1994 to…

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English / 01/01/2012

Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB

With short term interest rates bounded at zero, monetary policy has aimed at affecting the yield curve at the longer end during the recent years. As the recent literature has shown, the quantitative easing programs conducted by the Federal reserve have significantly lowered long-term yields. This paper adds central bank reserves as a fourth factor to an affine term structure model to…

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English / 01/01/2012

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