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Volatility spillovers and systemic risk across economies: evidence from a global semi-structural model

The paper presents some evidence on the overwhelming relevance of systemic risk and the lesser importance of US interest rates in the global transmission of shocks. This evidence suggests that the literature could benefi…t from incorporating global con…dence variables into global frameworks in the study of the global transmission of shocks. As framework, we used a global semi-…

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Français, English / 03/12/2018

Customs unions in international law: from concept to practice

Relative to the study of free trade agreements, customs unions (CUs) have been neglected in international law scholarship, despite the fact that by no means do they constitute a recent phenomenon. The present article aims to fill this gap by conducting a scoping analysis of the concept of customs union and identifying key issues in CU designs. The article problematizes what is…

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/ 12/11/2018

Maduro Bonds

For multiple decades, activists have sought to institute an international legal regime that limits the ability of despotic governments to borrow money and then shift those obligations onto more democratic successor governments. Our goal in this article is to raise the possibility of an alternate legal path to raising the costs of borrowing for despotic regimes. All countries have…

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Français, English / 28/09/2018

Trade linkages and firm value: evidence from the 2018 US-China "trade war"

On March 22, 2018, Trump proposed to impose tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese imports leading to a significant concern over the "Trade War" between the US and China. We evaluate the market responses to this event for firms in both countries, depending on their direct and indirect exposures to US-China trade. US firms that are more dependent on exports to and imports from China…

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/ 21/08/2018

The bank lending channel: a time-varying approach

Using a cross-country panel of 925 banks from 19 advanced economies, for the period 1981-2016, I examine how the bank lending channel of monetary policy has evolved over time. I find that the sensitivity of lending to bank balance sheet liquidity declines over time, with nearly all the reduction occurring between the early 1990s and the early 2000s. Contrary to normal times, during…

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Français, English / 11/06/2018

The evolution of the EU law against criminal finance: the "hardening" of FATF standards within the EU

This article examines the recent evolution of the EU anti-money-laundering (AML) and counter-terrorist financing (CTF) legislative framework, focusing on the relationship between the main international standards in the field and the newest EU legislation. It suggests that international soft law norms—in particular, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Recommendations—have had a…

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/ 11/06/2018

Foreign currency bank funding and global factors

The literature on drivers of capital flows stresses the prominent role of global financial factors. Recent empirical work, however, highlights how this role varies across countries and time, and this heterogeneity is not well understood. We revisit this question by focusing on financial intermediaries' funding flows in different currencies. A portfolio model shows that the sign and…

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Français, English / 29/05/2018

Does public debt crowd out corporate investment?: international evidence

Using data for advanced and emerging economies, we show that there is a negative correlation between public debt and corporate investment. Industry-level regressions show that high levels of government debt are particularly damaging for industries that need more external financial resources. Firm-level regressions show that government debt increases the sensitivity of corporate…

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Français, English / 24/05/2018

Acquirers and financial constraints: theory and evidence from emerging markets

How do financial frictions shape the set of acquirers, how much they acquire, and how long they keep ownership? To address these questions, we develop a tractable model of M&As; whereby acquirers and targets emerge endogenously due to differences in liquidity. Financial crises lead to selection effects among acquirers that result in larger acquired stakes and more persistent…

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Français, English / 16/04/2018

Education, gender, religion, politics: what priorities for cultural integration policies in Switzerland?

This paper explores cultural integration paths of eight migrant groups in Switzerland. It specifically analyzes the evolution of objective behaviors and subjective attitudes of migrants from the first to the second generation. In order to deepen the analysis, the cultural integration of migrants is further examined from different perspectives: across cohorts (older vs. younger…

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Français, English / 16/04/2018

Down with diarrhea: using fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design to link communal water supply with health

This paper contributes to the existing literature by demonstrating that the provision of communal water supply can be effective in improving child health if the targeted population shows adequate hygiene awareness and behavior. Until now, the fast growing body of literature on water development interventions could not establish a significant effect of communal water supply on health…

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Français, English / 16/04/2018

Fiscal multipliers for Bosnia and Herzegovina

The aim of this paper is to determine the size of fiscal multipliers (spending and tax multipliers) using a structural vector autoregressive model for Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This is the first attempt of its kind for the BiH economy. The results show that the spending multiplier is higher than the tax multiplier, as expected. The tax multiplier has a negative effect on output…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Fiscal shocks and international production networks: an empirical investigation

Recently, a large literature has been developed from the production network models, to be applied in a diversity of fields as financial contagion, trade comovements or the aggregation of micro shocks. Thus, one theoretical implication introduced by Acemoglu et al. (2015), argue that demand-side shocks (i.e. government spending) spread through the production networks following…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Standards of proofs in sequential merger control procedures

We model merger control procedures as a process of sequential acquisition of information in which mergers can be cleared after a first phase of investigation. We find that the enforceability of clearance decisions at the end of the first phase is unattractive to the extent that it prevents the authorities to use their expectations as to whether evidence gathered in the first phase…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Things have changed (or Have they?): tariff protection and environmental concerns in the WTO

This paper considers the APEC and proposed EGA agreements which grant tariff concession in favor of "green" goods. We …find that the practical signi…cance of the APEC agreement should not be overestimated as it involves modest tariff concessions over a subset of goods which are not heavily traded. Still, these agreements involve a paradigm shift to the extent that they use tariffs…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Investment gaps in IDB borrowing countries

We estimate public investment gaps in a sample of developing countries using a public investment demand function. We then use GDP per capita projections, forecasts of structural transformation, and three SDG targets (poverty, infant mortality and lower secondary school completion) to predict public investment needs in 2030 among IDB borrowing countries. Our estimates suggest that in…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Trade re(im)balanced: the role of regional trade agreements

This paper documents the novel fact that Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) decrease bilateral trade imbalances as measured by conventional measure of the net export share in gross trade. While on average an RTA decreases bilateral trade imbalance by 7%, greater trade integration through a deeper RTA is associated with a reduction of up to 50% among the sample of over 160 countries…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Exchange rates, international trade and growth: re-evaluation of undervaluation

This paper shows that a regional bias resulting from trade integration alters the transmission of a country's monetary policy by shifting the burden of the exchange rate adjustment towards the less integrated trading partners. I first develop a simple model which illustrates how a concentration of trade flows among regional trading partners a↵ects the sensitivity of the trade balance…

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Français, English / 13/04/2018

Structural budget balances in oil-rich countries: the cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia

This study aims to analyse the discretionary fiscal policy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period 2003-2015 using the structural budget balance (SBB). The SBB considers the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The SBBs in Azerbaijan and Russia experience a…

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Français, English / 20/03/2018

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