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A framework for rethinking NAFTA for the 21st century: policies, institutions, and regionalism

The 2016 U.S. presidential campaign made the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) a prime target in a heated and divisive debate that questioned the United States' participation in the international trading system. Though campaign rhetoric typically softens as a candidate takes office, this time may be different. President Donald Trump has called NAFTA “the worst trade deal…

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/ 20/02/2018

The impact of new regionalism on global value chains participation

This article investigates the impact of trade agreements on bilateral trade flows of manufactured goods. Compared to other studies, it enriches the analysis by decomposing gross trade flows into their value added components, and by considering the direction of trade flows and the content of trade agreements. The analysis reveals a clear pattern in the effects of economic integration…

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/ 20/02/2018

Services liberalization and GVC participation: new evidence for heterogeneous effects by income level and provisions

Participation in global value chains (GVCs) is a key element in the industrialization strategies of many developing nations. Many studies look at the determinants of GVC participation but most focus on do- mestic regulatory environments, the cost of doing business, and trade policy. This paper investigates the possibility that services also mat- ter by empirically testing for a link…

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/ 20/02/2018

International arbitrage and the extensive margin of trade between rich and poor countries

We incorporate consumption indivisibilities into the Krugman (1980) model and show that an importer’s per capita income becomes a primary determinant of “export zeros”. Households in the rich North (poor South) are willing to pay high (low) prices for consumer goods; hence unconstrained monopoly pricing generates arbitrage opportunities for internationally traded products. Export…

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English / 01/01/2018

A dynamic North-South Model of Demand-induced Product Cycles

This paper presents a dynamic North-South general-equilibrium model where per capita incomes shape demand patterns across regions. Innovation takes place in a rich North while firms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Allowing a role for per capita incomes in determining demand delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where…

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English / 01/01/2018

RWebData: A High-Level Interface to the Programmable Web

The rise of the programmable web offers new opportunities for the empirically driven sciences. The access to, compilation and preparation of data from the programmable web for statistical analysis can, however, involve substantial up-front costs for the practical researcher. The R-package RWebData provides a high-level framework that allows data to be easily collected from the…

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English / 01/01/2018

Volatile Top Income Shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the Evolution Between 1981 and 2010

In the last 20 years, the share of top incomes in Switzerland has risen, while
exhibiting large variations. Switzerland is similar to European countries for the top
1% but closer to the U.S. for higher top income groups. With the synthetic control
method we close a time gap in the tax data, exploiting the fact that Swiss cantons
changed their tax system at…

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English / 01/12/2017

Europe Fettered: The impact of crisis-era trade distortions on exports from the European Union

Having grown in real terms by 60% between 2000 to 2008, extra-EU exports have since stagnated. Stripping out other determinants of EU export growth, the focus here is on the impact of trade distortions imposed by foreign governments since the global economic crisis began. Our econometric analysis implies that crisis-era trade distortions held back EU Member State export growth to…

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English / 01/12/2017

Dyadic Value Distance: Determinants and Consequences

This paper establishes a measure of bilateral differences in values using 857 questions from the World Values Survey. We explore the determinants of value distance, linking it to geography as well as the historical relatedness of populations across 90 countries. Furthermore, we explore the explanatory power of value distance for the diffusion of technological development.

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English / 27/10/2017

Why is there so little litigation under free trade agreements?: retaliation and adjudication in international dispute settlement

Over the past decade, the WTO dispute settlement system has continued to be used extensively, contrasting with the very few disputes taken to inter-state adjudication under FTAs. This paper discusses the causes of this discrepancy, arguing that, besides specific procedural difficulties, it may be explained by a more structural difference between adjudication in a multilateral and in…

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/ 03/10/2017

Text-as-data analysis of preferential trade agreements: mapping the PTA landscape

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) form an intricate web that connects countries across the globe. In this article, we introduce a PTA text corpus and research tools for its finegrained, automated analysis. Recent computational advances allow for efficient and effective content analysis by treating text as data. We digitize PTA texts and use textual similarity tools to assess PTA…

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/ 14/08/2017

Investor Attention and Sentiment: Risk or Anomaly?

Are stocks' varying sensitivies to changing investor attention and sentiment priced? Employing internet search-based proxies for both, I find novel results that are consistent with theory. Stocks that co-vary negatively with increased investor attention to the stock market outperform in the following months in a behavior consistent with a risk premium. The pricing of co-…

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English / 01/07/2017

Will Awe Trump Rules? The 21st GTA Report

Not since the London Summit of in April 2009 has protectionism had such a high profile in the run-up to a G20 Leader’s Summit. President Trump’s America First policies have drawn sharp criticism from leaders of other G20 governments. Accusations and counter-accusations of unfair trading practices have become a regular occurrence. So as to shed light on competing claims, this Global…

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English / 01/07/2017

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