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International arbitrage and the extensive margin of trade between rich and poor countries

We incorporate consumption indivisibilities into the Krugman (1980) model and show that an importer’s per capita income becomes a primary determinant of “export zeros”. Households in the rich North (poor South) are willing to pay high (low) prices for consumer goods; hence unconstrained monopoly pricing generates arbitrage opportunities for internationally traded products. Export…

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English / 01/01/2018

A dynamic North-South Model of Demand-induced Product Cycles

This paper presents a dynamic North-South general-equilibrium model where per capita incomes shape demand patterns across regions. Innovation takes place in a rich North while firms in a poor South imitate products manufactured in North. Allowing a role for per capita incomes in determining demand delivers a complete international product cycle as described by Vernon (1966), where…

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English / 01/01/2018

RWebData: A High-Level Interface to the Programmable Web

The rise of the programmable web offers new opportunities for the empirically driven sciences. The access to, compilation and preparation of data from the programmable web for statistical analysis can, however, involve substantial up-front costs for the practical researcher. The R-package RWebData provides a high-level framework that allows data to be easily collected from the…

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English / 01/01/2018

Volatile Top Income Shares in Switzerland? Reassessing the Evolution Between 1981 and 2010

In the last 20 years, the share of top incomes in Switzerland has risen, while
exhibiting large variations. Switzerland is similar to European countries for the top
1% but closer to the U.S. for higher top income groups. With the synthetic control
method we close a time gap in the tax data, exploiting the fact that Swiss cantons
changed their tax system at…

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English / 01/12/2017

Europe Fettered: The impact of crisis-era trade distortions on exports from the European Union

Having grown in real terms by 60% between 2000 to 2008, extra-EU exports have since stagnated. Stripping out other determinants of EU export growth, the focus here is on the impact of trade distortions imposed by foreign governments since the global economic crisis began. Our econometric analysis implies that crisis-era trade distortions held back EU Member State export growth to…

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English / 01/12/2017

Dyadic Value Distance: Determinants and Consequences

This paper establishes a measure of bilateral differences in values using 857 questions from the World Values Survey. We explore the determinants of value distance, linking it to geography as well as the historical relatedness of populations across 90 countries. Furthermore, we explore the explanatory power of value distance for the diffusion of technological development.

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English / 27/10/2017

Investor Attention and Sentiment: Risk or Anomaly?

Are stocks' varying sensitivies to changing investor attention and sentiment priced? Employing internet search-based proxies for both, I find novel results that are consistent with theory. Stocks that co-vary negatively with increased investor attention to the stock market outperform in the following months in a behavior consistent with a risk premium. The pricing of co-…

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English / 01/07/2017

Will Awe Trump Rules? The 21st GTA Report

Not since the London Summit of in April 2009 has protectionism had such a high profile in the run-up to a G20 Leader’s Summit. President Trump’s America First policies have drawn sharp criticism from leaders of other G20 governments. Accusations and counter-accusations of unfair trading practices have become a regular occurrence. So as to shed light on competing claims, this Global…

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English / 01/07/2017

Human Barriers to Trade

This paper investigates the impact of human barriers to international trade using ancestral distance as a measure of the relatedness between populations. In a new data set covering the universe of global trade, our findings document that country pairs with a high ancestral distance are less likely to trade with each other (extensive margin) and if they do trade, ancestral distance…

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English / 06/01/2017

Russia’s New Concept of the State Migration Policy until 2025: A Reform towards Effective Policies for International Economic Migrants?

Russia’s new Concept of the State Migration Policy until 2025 (the CSMP) was approved on 13 June 2012. As the first comprehensive, nationwide document on migration policy in the modern history of Russia, it marks the beginning of a decisive reform of the country’s migration policy by departing from the existing focus on temporary foreign workers. The emphasis of the CSMP is on…

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English / 01/01/2017

Uncovering Vote Trading Through Networks and Computation

We develop a new methodological framework for the empirical study of legislative vote trading. Building on the concept of reciprocity in directed weighted networks, our method facilitates the measurement of vote trading on a large scale, while estimating the micro-structure of trades between individual legislators. In principle, it can be applied to a broad variety of voting data and…

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English / 01/01/2017

Direct Democracy, Postal Voting, and the Composition of Turnout

Existing work on the effects of electoral reforms suggests that decreasing the costs of voting may exacerbate rather than reduce representational biases in turnout. We argue that some electoral institutions may have more uniform mobilization effects than previously thought and exploit the sequential introduction of postal voting in Switzerland to analyze how an exogenous decrease in…

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English / 01/10/2016

Gauging Procurement Policy Change During the Crisis-Era: Evidence from the Global Trade Alert.

This paper summarises the principal findings of the data collection efforts by the independent Global Trade Alert team on public procurement policy changes undertaken since November 2008. A particular focus is on policy changes that alter the relative treatment of domestic firms vis-à-vis foreign rivals. The ultimate goal of this paper is to inform other, ongoing data collection…

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English / 01/09/2016

FDI Recovers? The 20th GTA Report

As global trade continues to stagnate, the spotlight has shifted during China’s G20 Presidency to foreign direct investment (FDI).Two recent developments have brought FDI to the forefront of international policy deliberations. First, at their annual meeting in July 2016, G20 trade ministers endorsed nine G20 Guiding Principles for Global Investment Policymaking. Second, in June 2016…

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English / 01/08/2016

Global Trade Plateaus. The 19th GTA Report

This report demonstrates that talk of a global trade slowdown is misplaced. Since January 2015 world trade volumes have plateaued, which is unusual as pauses in trade growth are typically associated with global recessions. A global trade plateau is a major source of concern as it is likely to add to the temptation of governments to engage in zero-sum commercial policies that seek to…

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English / 01/07/2016

Do Professionals Get It Right? Limited Attention and Risk-Taking Behaviour

Does information processing affect individual risk-taking behaviour? This article provides evidence that professional athletes suffer from a left-digit bias when dealing with signals about differences in performance. Using data from the highly competitive field of World Cup alpine skiing for the period of 1992–2014, we show that athletes misinterpret actual differences in race times…

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English / 01/05/2016

Direct Democracy: Chances and Challenges

This paper discusses several problems of direct popular decisions. In the first part, we consider problems related to the functioning of direct democracy. As a political system it only makes sense if there exists a continuous process and not if only occasional single questions are brought to a referendum. Then, the relation between direct democracy and the rule of unanimity is…

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English / 27/04/2016

Could the Recently Enacted Data Localization Requirements in Russia Backfire?

In the wake of ex-NSA contractor Edward Snowden's surveillance revelations to the global public, and despite an unimpeded cross-border data flow and knowledge transfer being a pre-requisite for the development of the digital economy, governments around the world are increasingly tending to resort to mandatory local data storage and to restrictions and bans on data transfers in a…

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English / 22/02/2016

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