infonet-economy

We propose a novel regime-switching approach for the simulation of electricity spot prices that is inspired by the class of fundamental models and takes into account the relation between spot and forward prices. Additionally the model is able to reproduce spikes and negative prices. Market prices are derived given an observed forward curve. We distinguish between a base regime and an…

Retail banks usually apply simple linear regression models for describing the dynamics of the deposit rates of non-maturing accounts (NMA) like savings deposits. Thus, typical patterns like asymmetry or rigidity that banks follow when adjusting their deposit rates are ignored. This is insofar surprising, as the asymmetric deposit rate adjustment affects the pricing of embedded…

The design and analysis of efficient approximation schemes is of fundamental importance in stochastic programming research. Bounding approximations are particularly popular for providing strict error bounds that can be made small by using partitioning techniques. In this article we develop a powerful bounding method for linear multistage stochastic programs with a generalized…

In this paper we develop models for the client rate and the volumes of non-maturing accounts. We test the hypothesis that movements in the client rate are dependent upon the market rates regime. We find that the responsiveness of the client rate is symmetric to changes in the short rate, but asymmetric to changes in the longer market rates. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment of the…

Electricity swing options are Bermudan-style path-dependent derivatives on electrical energy. We consider an electricity market driven by several exogenous risk factors and formulate the pricing problem for a class of swing option contracts with energy and power limits as well as ramping constraints. Efficient numerical solution of the arising multistage stochastic program requires…

The risk management of non-maturing account positions in a bank's balance like savings deposits or certain types of loans is complicated by the embedded options that clients may exercise. In addition to the usual interest rate risk, there is also uncertainty in the timing and amount of future cash flows. Since the corresponding volume risk cannot directly be hedged, the account…

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit liegt in der Anwendung der stochastischen Optimierung für die Bewertung von Energieverträgen mit Optionalitäten, sog. Swing-Optionen und Virtual Power Plants. Es wird anhand eines in der Praxis gängigen Energie-Bezugsvertrags die Sensitivität der Marktpreise, der Risikokenngrössen, der Ausübungsstrategie und des Hedge-Portfolios in Abhängigkeit…