In psychology as elsewhere, the main statistical inference strategy to establish empirical effects is null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The recent failure to replicate allegedly well-established NHST-results, however, implies that such results lack sufficient statistical power, and thus feature unacceptably high error-rates. Using data-simulation to estimate the error-rates of NHST-results, we advocate the research program strategy (RPS) as a superior methodology. RPS integrates Frequentist with Bayesian inference elements, and leads from a preliminary discovery against a (random) H0-hypothesis to a statistical H1-verification. Not only do RPS-results feature significantly lower error-rates than NHST-results, RPS also addresses key-deficits of a “pure” Frequentist and a standard Bayesian approach. In particular, RPS aggregates underpowered results safely. RPS therefore provides a tool to regain the trust the discipline had lost during the ongoing replicability-crisis.
Cet article examine l’influence de l’environnement institutionnel sur la politique de diffusion d’informations fiscales des entreprises. Nous nous concentrons sur l’un des éléments clés de la transparence fiscale présents dans les rapports annuels : la preuve d’impôt exigée par les normes comptables internationales. L’objectif de ce document consiste à expliquer les différences entre le taux d’imposition effectif de l’entreprise et le taux d’impôt théorique de l’entreprise. Nous utilisons des données provenant d’un échantillon d’entreprises françaises cotées et montrons que trois sources d’isomorphisme – coercitif, mimétique et normatif – expliquent le niveau de diffusion de la preuve d’impôt. Cet article contribue à la littérature existante en mettant en évidence le rôle que l’environnement institutionnel joue sur la politique de diffusion des entreprises. Il contribue également au débat sur les avantages et les inconvénients de la transparence fiscale.
This paper investigates to which extent multifactor asset pricing models can explain the pricing of IPOs in the U.S. market between 1980 and 2015. The paper contributes to the existing literature by demonstrating that the hot market, the underpricing and the underperformance issues can be explained by the general trends and the intensities of various risk factors. We analyse the latter based on the expectation that the number of IPOs, the underpricing and the underperformance are higher when the global economy performs well. In the cases of the hot market and the underpricing, the risk factors are correlated consistently to expectations. However, this is not always the case for IPO underperformance for which coefficients differ from expectations. Finally, the risk factors identified as main predictors differ for the three IPO anomalies.
We investigate the determinants of leverage and the impact of leverage on earnings quality using a large sample of public firms incorporated in 24 countries, from five hospitality sub-industries (bars and restaurants, gambling, hotels, recreational services, and travel and tourism), over the 2000-2016 period. First, we show that firm-specific characteristics (size, tangibility, and growth opportunities) as well as the institutional context are associated with leverage. Second, we find that leverage is positively related to abnormal accruals, our proxy for earnings quality. We thus confirm the detrimental effect leverage has on the reliability of accounting information. Our results are robust to using alternative earnings management measures, to excluding some countries, and to splitting leverage between its short- and long-term components. Overall, our findings contribute to the empirical literature on the determinants and the consequences of leverage in the global hospitality industry.
En Suisse, la demande de bois croît, notamment dans le secteur de la construction et le bois-énergie représente une alternative intéressante et neutre en CO2 dans la perspective de l’abandon de l’énergie nucléaire. Dans le même temps, avec l’objectif de la gestion durable des forêts, la politique fédérale encourage la protection des ressources forestières du pays et le grand public considère les fonctions écologiques et sociales comme prioritaires. Cet article étudie la perception des conflits potentiels entre l’augmentation de l’approvisionnement en bois local et les autres fonctions de la forêt. Il répond aux questions suivantes du point de vue de la population et des parties prenantes : est-il possible et souhaitable d’augmenter la production de bois suisse, quels conflits peuvent survenir et quelles solutions peuvent être proposées pour assurer la multifonctionnalité des forêts en Suisse ? La méthode utilisée combine une enquête qualitative réalisée auprès d’experts des fonctions forestières et un sondage représentatif de la population suisse. Nos résultats montrent que, si des conflits peuvent survenir localement et sur une courte durée, notamment avec la biodiversité, d’une manière générale, on ne perçoit pas, aujourd’hui, de conflits marqués entre l’exploitation de bois et les autres fonctions de la forêt. Il existe donc une possibilité d’exploiter davantage le bois des forêts suisses sans affaiblir le bon accomplissement des autres fonctions de la forêt. Cela implique pourtant l’instauration d’un dialogue entre les différentes parties prenantes et une promotion accrue du bois suisse et des produits en bois suisse.
In ant algorithms, each individual ant makes decisions according to the greedy force (short term profit) and the trail system based on the history of the search (information provided by other ants). Usually, each ant is a constructive process, which starts from scratch and builds step by step a complete solution of the considered problem. In contrast, in Ant Local Search (ALS), each ant is a local search, which starts from an initial solution and tries to improve it iteratively. In this paper are presented and discussed successful adaptations of ALS to different combinatorial optimization problems: graph coloring, a refueling problem in a railway network, and a job scheduling problem.
Dans cet article, nous proposons une nouvelle approche concernant le modèle ontologique de la compétence basé sur la roue de Deming afin de faciliter la communication et la compréhension de l'information qui assure une bonne gestion des ressources au sein de l'entreprise. Nous choisissons l'ontologie car elle permet de définir et de gérer les compétences et les connaissances dans les entreprises en assurant une modélisation d'un ensemble de connaissances dans un domaine donné. Dans ce travail, nous développons un modèle qui décrit le processus du pilotage des compétences afin d'améliorer le traitement et le partage de l'information.
This paper investigates how welfare losses for facing high-order risk increases change when the risk environment of the decision maker is altered. To that aim, we define the nth-order utility premium as a measure of pain associated with facing the passage of one risk to a more severe one and we examine some of its properties. Changes in risk are expressed through the concept of stochastic dominance of order n. The paper investigates more particularly welfare changes of merging increases in risk, first ignoring background risks, then taking them into account. Merging increases in risk may be beneficial or not, depending on whether background risks are considered and how. The paper also provides conditions on individual preferences for superadditivity of the nth-order utility premium. The results confirm the importance and usefulness of two analytical concepts: mixed risk aversion and risk apportionment.
We present a numerical model for the simulation of 3D poly-dispersed sediment transport in a Newtonian flow with free surfaces. The physical model is based on a mixture model for multiphase flows. The Navier–Stokes equations are coupled with the transport and deposition of the particle concentrations, and a volume-of-fluid approach to track the free surface between water and air. The numerical algorithm relies on operator-splitting to decouple advection and diffusion phenomena. Two grids are used, based on unstructured finite elements for diffusion and an appropriate combination of the characteristics method with Godunov’s method for advection on a structured grid. The numerical model is validated through numerical experiments. Simulation results are compared with experimental results in various situations for mono-disperse and bi-disperse sediments, and the calibration of the model is performed using, in particular, erosion experiments.
