Standard search theory assumes that individuals know, with certainty, how they compare to competing searchers in terms of ability. In contrast, we hypothesize that searchers are uncertain about relative ability, with important implications for search behavior. We test our hypotheses in a laboratory experiment. The first main finding is that people are substantially uncertain about whether they are a type with a high or low probability of success, determined by being above or below the median in terms of ability. Self-confidence, defined as an individual's self-assessed probability of being a high type, is too high (above zero) for many low types, and too low (below 1) for many high types. Second, people update beliefs based on search outcomes. Self-confidence increases or decreases in the right direction, but is less sensitive to new information than predicted by Bayes' rule. Third, updating affects future search decisions: people are less likely to search as confidence about being a high type falls. Fourth, some search too little, and others search too much, due to wrong beliefs. Fifth, at the end of the experiment a substantial fraction turn down the chance to learn their exact rank. These are overwhelmingly those with low ability, suggesting an aversion to learning that one is one of the worst performers. Given that people are uncertain even in the simple setting of our experiment, our evidence strongly suggests that uncertainty about ability is relevant in more complex, real-world search settings, including search for a job or search for a mate. Focusing on the case of job search, we discuss how our findings can provide a new explanation for various important stylized facts from field evidence.
This paper presents a model of the labor market in which unemployed workers are uncertain about their relative ability to find a job. Unsuccessful search induces individuals to revise their beliefs downwards. Once self-confidence is sufficiently low, workers become discouraged and give up on search. This non-stationarity gives rise to structural flows from unemployment to non-participation in equilibrium. In contrast, existing models typically maintain stationarity and appeal to exogenous stochastic shocks to generate transitions from unemployment to non-participation. Our model is based on relaxing a single assumption in a standard matching framework - workers are uncertain about their job finding probability - and yet the model generates a variety of important implications. Our alternative assumption is supported by experimental evidence. The first implication of the model is a declining hazard from unemployment to employment, arising due to erosion of self-confidence in search. Second, because search outcomes are only a noisy signal about ability, some individuals can become overly discouraged and stop search too early due to wrong beliefs. Finally, workers with greater unemployment duration are less confident, and thus have a worse threat point in wage bargaining. Consequentially, they earn lower starting wages even if they are identical in terms of objective productivity. We discuss how the model provides a new, unifying explanation for a variety of important facts from field evidence.
This paper sheds new light on the role of regional labor market conditions for regional mobility. We study competition for vacant jobs along two dimensions - between employed and unemployed job searchers, and between resident and non-resident job searchers - within a simple matching framework. Evidence from estimating regional matching functions with data on job searchers disaggregated by previous employment status and regional provenance indicates that competition for jobs along both dimensions affects hiring. Tests of the theoretical predictions suggest that labor market conditions do determine regional mobility, but the countervailing effects of competition between employed and unemployed dilute mobility effects.
This paper investigates spatial correlation in the matching process of vacant jobs and job seekers. The importance of the interactions of regional labor markets in West Germany is highlighted in several dimensions. We test for spatial autocorrelation in regional hires, unemployment and vacancy levels, we examine the patterns of new matches in regions, identify clusters of regions of particularly intense interregional matching, and examine the effects of German re-unification. After setting-out a simple model of endogenous regional mobility and endogenous on-the-job search, we analyze the composition of new hires with respect to regional origin and previous employment status, the determinants of this composition, and the interaction of these characteristics. The results shed new light on the puzzle raised in the literature, which finds a large variation in unemployment rates, combined with little inter-regional migration. We find evidence in favour of labor market determined migration and against the 'internal migration puzzle' found for other European countries and partly for the United States.
This paper deals with empirical matching functions. The paper is innovative in several ways. First, unlike in most of the existing literature, matching functions are estimated not only on aggregate, but also on disaggregate levels which is unusual due to the scarcity of appropriate data. Moreover, the unique data set used allows to distinguish inflows into jobs by sources. Results for different measures of flows found in the literature can therefore be replicated using a single data set. Labor markets can be disaggregated by occupations, rather than by industries or regions. Furthermore, disaggregation is possible for age and educational groups. The paper allows detailed insights into the pattern of frictions in labor markets, on mismatch and labor market tightness, and therefore provides valuable information necessary for the conduct of labor market policies.
Using error-free data on life-cycle portfolio allocations of a large sample of Norwegian households, we document a double adjustment as households age: a rebalancing of the portfolio composition away from stocks as they approach retirement and stock market exit after retirement. When structurally estimating an extended life-cycle model, the parameter combination that best fits the data is one with a relatively large risk aversion, a small per-period participation cost, and a yearly probability of a large stock market loss in line with the frequency of stock market crashes in Norway.
Not available in German. In this paper we summarise our previous results on the effectiveness of different kinds of labour market training programmes as well as employment programmes in East Germany after unifica-tion. All the studies use the microeconometric evaluation approach and are based on different types of matching estimators. We find some positive earnings effect for on-the-job training and also some positive employment effects for employment programmes. No such effects appear for public sector sponsored (off-the-job) training programmes. Generally, the scope of such analysis is very much hampered by the insufficient quality and quantity of the data available for East Germany. Although, in particular the results for public sector sponsored training programmes raise serious doubts about the effectiveness of these programmes, any definite policy conclusion from this and other studies about active labour market policies in East Germany would probably be premature. Download from Davidson Institute
Not available in German. After unification of the East and West German economies in July 1990 the public sector devoted substantial resources to train the labour force of the former centrally planned East German economy. In this paper we describe the basic trends of the rules and regulations governing these efforts. We supplement this description with empirical stylized facts. Additionally, we report evaluations of the effects of this policy for training participants beginning their training between mid 1990 and early 1993. These evaluations are based on micro data from the Socio-economic Panel (1990-1994) which allows us to follow the individuals´ labour market status before and after training on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively. Our general findings of these evaluations suggest that there are no positive effects on such measures as post-training unemployment risk or earnings. Frühere Version: Eichler, M. and M. Lechner (1996), Public Sector Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training in East Germany: Institutional Arrangements, Participants, and Results of Empirical Evaluations, Beiträge zur angewandten Wirtschaftsforschung, Universität Mannheim, 96-31. Download Discussion Paper: (pdf, 279 kb)
