infonet-economy

Finding ways to adapt natural tendencies and nudge collective action is central to the well-being of future generations, say Helga Fehr-Duda and Ernst Fehr.

As globalization brings people with incompatible attitudes into contact, cultural conflicts inevitably arise. Little is known about how to mitigate conflict and about how the conflicts that occur can shape the cultural evolution of the groups involved. Female genital cutting is a prominent example1, 2, 3. Governments and international agencies have promoted the abandonment of cutting for decades, but the practice remains widespread with associated health risks for millions of girls and women4, 5. In their efforts to end cutting, international agents have often adopted the view that cutting is locally pervasive and entrenched1. This implies the need to introduce values and expectations from outside the local culture. Members of the target society may view such interventions as unwelcome intrusions1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and campaigns promoting abandonment have sometimes led to backlash1, 7, 8, 10, 11 as they struggle to reconcile cultural tolerance with the conviction that cutting violates universal human rights1, 9. Cutting, however, is not necessarily locally pervasive and entrenched1, 3, 12. We designed experiments on cultural change that exploited the existence of conflicting attitudes within cutting societies. We produced four entertaining movies that served as experimental treatments in two experiments in Sudan, and we developed an implicit association test to unobtrusively measure attitudes about cutting. The movies depart from the view that cutting is locally pervasive by dramatizing members of an extended family as they confront each other with divergent views about whether the family should continue cutting. The movies significantly improved attitudes towards girls who remain uncut, with one in particular having a relatively persistent effect. These results show that using entertainment to dramatize locally discordant views can provide a basis for applied cultural evolution without accentuating intercultural divisions.

To assess the impact of interventions on well-being during war time, we analyze data from the birth records at the university maternity hospital of Basle in the period 1912-1920. Birth weight of children from medium SEP families decreased during the crisis years 1918 and 1919, but not for low and high SEP families. A potential explanation is access to food: while high SEP families could compensate for high prices, low SEP families received support, for which medium SEP families were not eligible.

Midbrain dopamine neurons encode reward prediction errors. In this issue of Neuron, Takahashi et al. (2016) show that the ventral striatum provides dopamine neurons with prediction information specific to the timing, but not the quantity, of reward, suggesting a surprisingly nuanced neural implementation of reward prediction errors.

Theoretical principles of information processing and empirical findings suggest that to efficiently represent all possible rewards in the natural environment, reward-sensitive neurons have to adapt their coding range dynamically to the current reward context. Adaptation ensures that the reward system is most sensitive for the most likely rewards, enabling the system to efficiently represent a potentially infinite range of reward information. A deficit in neural adaptation would prevent precise representation of rewards and could have detrimental effects for an organism’s ability to optimally engage with its environment. In schizophrenia, reward processing is known to be impaired and has been linked to different symptom dimensions. However, despite the fundamental significance of coding reward adaptively, no study has elucidated whether adaptive reward processing is impaired in schizophrenia. We therefore studied patients with schizophrenia (n=27) and healthy controls (n=25), using functional magnetic resonance imaging in combination with a variant of the monetary incentive delay task. Compared with healthy controls, patients with schizophrenia showed less efficient neural adaptation to the current reward context, which leads to imprecise neural representation of reward. Importantly, the deficit correlated with total symptom severity. Our results suggest that some of the deficits in reward processing in schizophrenia might be due to inefficient neural adaptation to the current reward context. Furthermore, because adaptive coding is a ubiquitous feature of the brain, we believe that our findings provide an avenue in defining a general impairment in neural information processing underlying this debilitating disorder.

Visual perception is strongly shaped by expectations, but it is poorly understood how such perceptual expectations are learned in our dynamic sensory environment. Here, we applied a Bayesian framework to investigate whether perceptual expectations are continuously updated from different aspects of ongoing experience. In two experiments, human observers performed an associative learning task in which rapidly changing expectations about the appearance of ambiguous stimuli were induced. We found that perception of ambiguous stimuli was biased by both learned associations and previous perceptual outcomes. Computational modeling revealed that perception was best explained by a model that continuously updated priors from associative learning and perceptual history and combined these priors with the current sensory information in a probabilistic manner. Our findings suggest that the construction of visual perception is a highly dynamic process that incorporates rapidly changing expectations from different sources in a manner consistent with Bayesian learning and inference.

We propose a new non-linear regression model for rating dependent variables. The rating scale model accounts for the upper and lower bounds of ratings. Parametric and semi-parametric estimation is discussed. An application investigates the relationship between stated health satisfaction and physical and mental health scores derived from self-reports of various health impairments, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. We compare our new approach to modeling ratings with ordinary least squares (OLS). In one specification, OLS average effects exceed that from our rating scale model by up to 50 percent. Also, OLS in-sample mean predictions violate the upper bound of the dependent variable in a number of cases.

Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a leading diagnosed health condition among children in many developed countries but the causes underlying these high levels of ADHD remain highly controversial. Recent research for the U.S., Canada and some European countries shows that children who enter school relatively young have higher ADHD rates than their older peers, suggesting that ADHD may be misdiagnosed in the younger children due to their relative immaturity. Using rich administrative health insurance claims data from Germany we study the effects of relative school entry age on ADHD risk in Europe's largest country and relate the effects for Germany to the international evidence. We further analyze different mechanisms that may drive these effects, focusing on physician supply side and demand side factors stemming from the production of education. We find robust evidence for school-entry age related misdiagnosis of ADHD in Germany. Within Germany and internationally, a higher share of misdiagnoses are related to a higher overall ADHD level, suggesting that misdiagnoses may be a driving factor of high ADHD levels. Furthermore, the effects in Germany seem to be driven by teachers and parents in an attempt to facilitate and improve the production of education.

In this essay, we ask whether the distributions of life expectancy and mortality have become generally more unequal, as many seem to believe, and we report some good news. Focusing on groups of counties ranked by their poverty rates, we show that gains in life expectancy at birth have actually been relatively equally distributed between rich and poor areas. Analysts who have concluded that inequality in life expectancy is increasing have generally focused on life expectancy at age 40 to 50. This observation suggests that it is important to examine trends in mortality for younger and older ages separately. Turning to an analysis of age-specific mortality rates, we show that among adults age 50 and over, mortality has declined more quickly in richer areas than in poorer ones, resulting in increased inequality in mortality. This finding is consistent with previous research on the subject. However, among children, mortality has been falling more quickly in poorer areas with the result that inequality in mortality has fallen substantially over time. We also show that there have been stunning declines in mortality rates for African Americans between 1990 and 2010, especially for black men. Finally we offer some hypotheses about causes for the results we see, including a discussion of differential smoking patterns by age and socioeconomic status.

Excess zeros are encountered in many empirical count data applications. We provide a new explanation of extra zeros, related to the underlying stochastic process that generates events. The process has two rates, a lower rate until the first event, and a higher one thereafter. We derive the corresponding distribution of the number of events during a fixed period and extend it to account for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. An application to the socio-economic determinants of the individual number of doctor visits in Germany illustrates the usefulness of the new approach.