We provide a comparison of salient organizational features of primary markets for foreign government debt over the very long run. We focus on output, quality control, information provision, competition, pricing, charging and signaling. We find that the market set up experienced a radical transformation in the recent period and interpret this as resulting from the rise of liability insurance provided by rating agencies. Underwriters have given up their former role as gatekeepers of liquidity and certification agencies to become aggressive competitors in a new speculative grade market.
This paper analyzes the spatial interdependence of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in a cross-section framework using the Contagion Index proposed by Baldwin and Jaimovich (2010). A Bayesian heteroskedastic probit model is estimated, where a spatial lag is built based on the Contagion Index, finding evidence of interdependence related with a domino-like effect. I compare the results with simple probit estimations and other spatial specifications.
This paper addresses the impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalisation (MTL) on the preferential tariffs granted by the United States. For a given MFN tariff, we model the preferential tariff with a simple linear functional form. We take MTL of the US as known to the world by the end of Uruguay Round in 1994 and estimate its impact on preferential tariff negotiations during 1995 to 2007. We use a three dimensional panel data, which takes into account the partner, product and time variation of the data-set. To complete our data-set, we codify eight PTA legal agreements. We draw three important conclusions. First, the products that are highly protected do not get high preferential access even at the regional level. Second, reciprocity plays only a limited role in granting better preferential access. Third, irrespective of development level of the partner, the non-reciprocal GSP preferences always matter.
This paper uses an untapped dataset on Swiss immigration and a novel instrumental variable to test three channels through which migrants promote trade. The main finding is that migrant networks are an effective substitute for formal institutions in facilitating trade. The effect takes place entirely on the extensive margin, suggesting migrant networks may be reducing fixed entry costs characterized by corruption.
that they insulate output better from real shocks, because the exchange rate can adjust and stabilize demand for domestic goods through expenditure switching. This argument is weakened in a model with high foreign currency debt and low exchange rate pass through to import prices. We analyze the transmission of real external shocks to the domestic economy under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes for a broad sample of countries in a Panel VAR and let the responses vary with foreign currency indebtedness and import structure. We find that flexible exchange rates do not insulate output better from external shocks if the country imports mainly low pass-through goods and can even amplify the output response if foreign indebtedness is high.
The present study aims to contribute to the debate concerning the effects on economic performance and the structure of the labor market of regulations that combine high Employment Protection Legislations (EPL) with consent for the use of fixed-term contracts (FTC). Using a Rajan and Zingales (1998) difference-in-difference empirical technique in a panel of 45 countries, we explore the response of industries that differ in their "intrinsic need" of worker turnover when they face different levels of EPL and how the possibility of using FTC might change the outcome. Our approach suggests an original demand side explanation of the claiming of FTC.
The aim of this paper is to explore the patterns of trade duration across regions and to identify its determinants. Using an extended Cox model, we evaluate the effects of country and product characteristics, as well as of trade cost variables on the duration of trade relationships from 96 countries from 1995 to 2004. Our results suggest first that the duration of trade relationships increases with the region level of development: trade relationships from richer economies face lower hazard rates i.e. longer duration. Second, the type of product matters for export survival, trade relationships involving differentiated products show a hazard rate that is 11% to 13% lower than trade relationships involving homogeneous goods. Third, high export costs increase the probability of export failure in all regions but the effect diminishes with time, thus suggesting that export experience matters. Finally, the size of exports also matters: the larger the transaction, the higher the probability of survival.
This paper investigates the effects of equity market integration on the transmission of monetary policy shocks. Based on the assumption that financial market liberalization and integration lead to falling portfolio holding costs, we analyze its effect on a twocountry DSGE model with staggered prices and endogenous portfolio choice under incomplete markets. The model predicts that the reaction of stock prices, output and RER becomes muted upon impact and less persistence with falling portfolio holding costs. To test for a similar pattern in the data, we estimate a VAR with rolling coefficients for Australia, which provides a good case study. We identify a monetary policy shock with the sign restriction approach. The impulse responses generated by the data are consistent with the prediction of the model and imply that equity market liberalization seems to weaken the impact of monetary policy, at least on stock prices.
How do asymmetric labor market institutions affect volatility of inflation and unemployment differentials in a currency union? What are the implications for monetary policy? To answer these questions, this paper sets up a DSGE currency union model with unemployment, hiring frictions and real wage rigidities. The model provides a rigorous but tractable framework for the analysis of the functioning of a currency union characterized by asymmetric labor market institutions. Positively, we find that inflation and unemployment differentials strongly depend on the underlying labor market structures. Moreover, asymmetries in labor market structures increase the volatility of both inflation and unemployment differentials. Normatively, we find that the optimal inflation target should give a higher weight to regions with more sclerotic labor markets but with more flexible real wages.
If women make different economic decisions than men on average, then an increase in women's influence in the political and economic spheres of society might change economic outcomes. In this note, we focus on the impact of female enfranchisement on fiscal policy outcomes. We present a simple median voter model and show that if women have different economic preferences than men, then female enfranchisement leads to a change in government budget deficits.
